特斯拉2026年第二季度预览及盈利调整

BuyNorth America Company Update UnitedStates Autos &Auto Technology 2Q26 Preview Edison Yu Research Analyst+1-212-250-7263 2Q26 earningsFollowing 2Q deliveries which were significantly above expectations at ~480k units,wenow model autogross margin ex-credit at 18.0%,still down120bpssequentiallydespitegrowingvolumemeaningfullyQoQ.Goingfrom1Qto2Q,thequartershould see incremental benefitsfromhighervolume and increase inFSDmonthly subscriptions.However,we also see some meaningful sequentialheadwinds: Research Analyst+1-212-250-5121 Laura LiResearch Associate+1-212-250-2266 ThefirstisthatTesla startedoffering0.99%APRfinancingforModelYintheUSfromMay10-31,likelybenefitingunitvolumeattheexpenseofmargins.Ifweassume45kunits soldintheUStookadvantageofthepromotionalrate, at around $4k upfront rate buy-down cost to the partner bank, thiswould equate to $180m hit to profit. James Mulholland, CFAResearch Associate+1-212-250-6026 Secondly,the companyhadbenefited fromaone-time warrantyandtariffrelief, collectively worth $230m in 1Q.We estimate that the warrantyamount is larger at about $150m, and an unwind of that will be a QoQheadwindto2Q.TeslaalsodidnotrealizeanybenefitfrompriorSupremeCourt ruling on IEEPA tariffs, thus we're carrying the remaining $8Om into2Q. Lastly, Tesla eliminated its upfront purchase of FSD back in mid-February.with 2Qbeing impacted on a full-quarterbasis and we estimate about -$200m in headwind. All in, we estimate that GAAP auto gross margin will be about 19.2% in 2Q, vs.21.1% in 1Q, with auto gross margin ex-credit estimated at 18.0% (down from19.2%).AllthisleadstoouradjustedEPSestimateof$0.36,vs.consensusat$0.47.Forthefull year, wethink Tesla cangrowvolumebyMSDto HSD %,and we nowestimate 1.77munits, vs.1.63mlast year. Autos&Auto TechnologyTesla Inc. Progress inthe rollout of Tesla's robotaxi service has admittedly been slowerthan expectedthis year.While Telsa doesn't regularly disclosefleet size,publicreportingsuggests operations remain concentratedprimarily in Austinbut expansion hasreachedseveraladditionalmetroareasincludingBayArea,Dallas,andHouston.Sopositiveforfurthergeo-expansion.Main issue we havebeenobservingiswaittimewhich is perhaps linked to vehicle availability, and its ability to support high ridevolumes. We continue to watch for fleet growth, geographic expansion rate,utilization,andinsomecasesinterventionrate.OnCybercab,Elonhasqualitativelycharacterized the rampas agonizinglyslow given its new manufacturingprocess.While production has started, it appears to be more focused on engineeringvalidationandinternaltestingtoprepareforalarger productionramplaterthisyearandinto2027 OptimusGen3toseehigheroutputbyyearendOn Optimus Gen3, wepointto media reporting in China that Telsa has givenmore concreteprocurementrequirementsto itssuppliers inChina,andbasedon that,toNear-term applications include internal factory work: moving parts, loading/complete,with Samsungconfirming itwill bemanufacturingAi5at its Taylor Texasfacilityusing latest2nmprocess (whichcoulddeliver40xcompute improvementoverHW4andapproximately5xthememorybandwidth).Importantly,Elonconfirmed this initial batch will beprioritized by Tesla's supercomputerclusters andthe Optimus program first. ReiterateBuyand$465pricetarget Increasingly so,we think investors are looking at the high possibility of TeslacombiningwithSpaceXinthenearfuture(next1-2years)andwhatthismovecoulddo to the Tesla stock.We suspectthis topic could get air time during theupcomingearningscall,howEloncouldchoosetooperatehistwoseparateentities,andwhatsynergies the combination could drive (see our SpaceX initiation here). ReiterateBuy and $465 price target. Appendix 1 informatieies,andotherespertainingtorecommtesmadeonsecsotherthantheprimaEquityResearchDisclosures.Asidefrom within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction inadditionto the United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes.8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking servicesfromthiscompanyinthenextthreemonths.14.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this companywithin the past year for non-investmentbankingrelatedservices.15.investmentbanking services.21.This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it receivednon-investmentbanking securities-related services. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators Disclosuresmarkedwithanasteriskmayalsoberequired byatleastone jurisdiction inadditiontotheUnitedStates.See 24.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)is orhas been over theprevious 12monthspartyto