2026年第二季度业绩预览；潜在人形机器人业务收购；首次覆盖H股给予持有评级

IndustryEstun Automation 2Q26E preview; Potential humanoidacquisition; Initiate H shares at Hold Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst+852-2203-5884 Estun is scheduled to release full 1H26 results in the evening of 21 August. We see thepossibility for the company to release a profit alert in July. We expect Estun's net profit to grow strongly YoY in 1H26E off a very low base,posing the possibility for Estun to issue a positive profit alert in July. For 2026E,we forecast revenue of RMB6bn and net profit of RMB305mn/ 5% NPM, which arein line with the company's guidance. The potential acquisition of the humanoidrobot business Codroid should contribute minimally to financials, but positivelyto valuation. This optimism is well-reflected in Estun's share price, especially theA shares, as investors are excited about synergies from Estun's no.1 position inChina's industrial robot market and the lack of humanoid robot OEM investmenttargets in the Mainland China stock markets. In the near term, we think the marketoptimism around humanoid robots could continue to drive Estun's shareshigher. On a 12M view, we reiterate our Sell rating with a target price of RMB31.4for the A shares as we consider the 2026E P/S of 7.4x to be full vs humanoid robotpeer UBTECH at 11x (based on BBG estimates), considering Estun's muchsmaller humanoid robot exposure. We initiate the H shares at Hold with a targetprice of HK$23.6, as we think the valuation of 2026E P/S of 3.3x for the H sharespoints to balanced risk/reward. 1H26E preview: Strong profit growth off a very low baseFor2Q26E, we forecast Estun to deliver sales of RMB1.5bn (+15% YoY), net profit of RMB40mn (better than RMB-6mn loss in 2Q25 YoY; lower than RMB98mn in1Q26 QoQ) and recurring net profit of RMB38mn (better than RMB-22mn loss in2Q25 YoY and RMB19mn in 1Q26 QoQ). For1H26E, we forecast Estun to deliver sales of RMB2.7bn (+7% YoY), net profit ofRMB138mn (+1960% YoY from RMB7mn in 1H25) and recurring net profit ofRMB58mn (vs RMB-18mn loss in 1H25). Forsales, we expect the sales growth to improve to +15% YoY in 2Q26E from adecline of -2% in 1Q26 lifted by: (1) solid demand from battery and electronics end-markets; (2) the realisation of the 5-15% price increase adopted in 1Q26; and (3) alower base. 7 July 2026ManufacturingEstun Automation For profitability, we forecast theGPM to improve to 31% in 2Q26Ethanks to highersales and price increase. We expect Estun to exercise stringent cost control ofoperating expenses. However, we anticipate thenet profit to be lower in 2Q26Esequentially vs 1Q26 as1Q26 benefited from a RMB87mn non-recurring gain.Furthermore, we expectasset impairments to step up sequentiallyon higher salesand automotive related sales with long receivable duration. For2026E, we forecast sales of RMB6bn (+23% YoY), net profit of RMB305mn(5.1% NPM; +578% YoY) and recurring net profit of RMB205mn (3.4% NPM;+2714% YoY). This isinline with the company's guidanceof RMB6bn sales and 5%NPM. Potential acquisition of humanoid robot business Codroid lifts sentiment In the evening of 2 July, Estun announced thatthe company is considering fullyacquiring Codroid by cash.We think the potential acquisition is somewhat asexpected, as Codroid is closely linked to Estun — Estun already owns 13.9535% ofCodroid, and Estun's parent company Nanjing Pereste Technology owns 39.0698%of Codroid. Founded in 2022,Codroid manufactures collaborative robots (cobots), embodiedrobotsand core components.The key end-markets for Codroid includeautomotive, household appliance, electronics and food logistics. In 2025, Codroid generated revenue of RMB50.2mn with net loss of RMB53mn.Therefore, we expect the acquisitionto contribute minimally financially to Estunin the near future. However, we thinkCodroid's exposure to the humanoid robotbusiness will lift/ has lifted market sentiment of Estun. Figure 1: Financial details of Codroid Codroid has launchedthree embodied robots: nCodroid 02:A bipedal humanoid robot with height of 170cm and weight of70kg. Total degree of freedom is 29 or 31. Payload per arm is 5kg.nC05-U:A wheeled humanoid robot with height of 138-168cm and weightof 32kg.nC05-L:Also a wheeled humanoid robot with height of 138-168cm andweight of 32kg. 7 July 2026ManufacturingEstun Automation Figure 2: Embodied robots from Codroid: Codroid 02 (LHS) and C05-L (RHS) Source : Company data A shares: Raise target price to RMB31.4; Reiterate Sell Weadjustour2026/2027 net profitestimates by+8%/-10%,respectively, to reflectmanagement's guidance for 2026E. We introduce new estimates for 2028E. We increase our DCF-derivedtarget price to RMB31.4 from RMB20 as weincorporate higher growth assumptions for the mid-term to reflect the embodied AIrobot opportunities. Our target price is based on a three-stage DCF valuation. Weuse a terminal growth of 3.5%, a risk-free rate of 1.8%, an equity risk premium of5%, and a beta of 1.61 to derive our WACC of 9.3%. Estun's A shares are trading on2026E/2