绿联科技(301606)：首次覆盖给予持有评级，增长迅猛但短期承压

Ugreen Group (301606 CH) EquitiesHousehold Durables Initiate at Hold: Rapid growth,short-term pressure China ◆An established global consumer electronics brand;60%of INITIATE AT HOLD ◆Bright outlook for fast-growingnetwork-attached storage(NAS) market;Ugreen has a41% domestic market share ◆But we see short-term risks; initiate at Hold(TP RMB68.00) A globalfootprint.Ugreen is a well-establishedglobalconsumerelectronicsbrand.In 1H25, about 60% of its revenue came from overseas–mainly Europe and the US–upfrom 43% in 2019. Ugreen started by making accessories for the 3Cs–computers, communication, and consumer electronics–andnow has afast-growing,self-brandedbusiness fornetwork-attached storage (NAS)productsthatconnect to a Strong growth outlook.We forecast a 35% revenue CAGR in 2024-27 and a 39%net profit CAGR over the same period,driven by:1)Ugreen expandingthe footprintof itsbrandin theglobal 3Caccessory marketthrough itscost-effective products;2)market sharegains fromstructural opportunities such as stricter regulationofChina’s Long-termNASpotentialvsshort-term risks.Weestimateannualsales of homeNAS productscould reach8m units globally,generatingasales value of RMB40bn.This is beingdriven by personal data volumes, smarthomeusageand demand forlocal AI deployment (seepage19).Sales ofUgreen’s NAS products havegrownrapidlydue toprice-competitive,high-quality hardware and rapidupgradestoitssoftware systems. Ugreen became the online NAS market leader inChina in10M25,with a c41% share. However,due to AI-related demand,theprices ofthesestorage LiQuan* (Reg. No. S1700520030002)Analyst, A-Share Consumer SectorHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedli.quan@hsbcqh.com.cn Katharine Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001)Head of A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC QianhaiSecurities Limitedkathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.cn Valuation and risks.We use a DCF modeltoderive our target price of RMB68.00(16%upside), implying 41xand30x 2025eand2026e PE vs.a25x 12-month forwardPE average sinceitsIPO. The stock istrading at c26x 2026e PE, which we thinkpartly pricesin market optimismaboutthecompany’sgrowthoutlook.Weinitiate atHolddue toconcerns aboutarise instorageprices.Upside risks:The launch andpopularity of new NAS products;lowerNASprices; power bank market concentration * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Pushing the accelerator into 2026 This is our latest report on the Future Consumer theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes,click here. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Ugreen Group Investment summary ◆Growing market share in theNAS market,but higher prices for ◆We forecast a 35% revenue CAGR in 2024-27, driven byacceleratinggrowth in its storage and charging businesses ◆The stock is tradingat 26x 2026e PE vs.ahistorical average of 25x;initiate at Hold, with a TP of RMB68.00 The businessisexpandingglobally Ugreen startedby making accessories for the3C business–computers, communication, andconsumer electronics–mainlychargingproducts(power banks) and transmissionproducts(USBcables).Thenetwork-attached storage (NAS)business, started in 2020, has become anew revenue growth driver.NAS products are storage devices connected to a network that The network-attachedstorage (NAS) business has In 1H25, charging, transmission and storage accounted forc37%,c27% andc11% of Ugreen’stotalrevenue, respectively.Weforecasta 35%revenueCAGR in 2024-27anda 39% net profitCAGR over the same period,driven by acceleratinggrowth inits storage and chargingbusinesses.WhileUgreenwill continue to invest inexploringnew markets and channels, we Ugreenisnow awell-establishedbrand among global consumers.In 1H25,about60% ofitsrevenuecame fromoverseas, up from44% in 2019.Weexpect theoverseas business toachieve faster revenue growth than its domestic business,given expanding channel coverage Growing3Caccessory business andburgeoningstorage business In this report,we analyse theoverall market as well as thecompetitive advantages ofUgreen’smajor product lines–charging, transmission,audio-visual,andNAS.Despite overall slowergrowth in the3C market, westillseestructural growth opportunities across all types ofthecompany’straditional businessesgivenUgreen’ssuperior product quality, reasonablepricing, We see significant potentialfor increased demand for ◆Charging:Thesafetyof powerbanks hasattractedthemarket’sattentionsince 2025.Thenew Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) requirements for the certification ofpower banks and stricter industry regulations will come into effect in 2026.We expect faster ◆Transmission:Despiteaslowdown in the global sales of mobile phones an