steris：执行出色，但政策转变引发不确定性；首次覆盖给予持有评级

2025A2026E5,459.55,871.55,459.55,812.21,267.51,368.31,267.571,359.41 2027E6,059.36,185.21,427.61,484.74 David Windley, CFA * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8313 | dwindley@jefferies.comSteven Couche, CFA * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8394 | scouche@jefferies.com The Long View: STERISInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferSTE's collection of businesses is primarily built around the consistentlygrowing demand for procedural volumes, which has produced a 20+ yeartrack record of M-HSD% organic growth and steady mgn expansion. However,proposed healthcare policies would reduce insurance coverage in Medicaid/HIX and pressure biopharma financials. If passed, these policies would beunprecedented in nature and trigger a multi-% headwind across both the HCand LS segments, which we don't think is reflected in consensus estimatesor valuation.Base Case,$263, +7%•FX benefit of ~100bp in FY26•HC rev grows ~8% in FY26, but only ~3% inFY27 as policy-induced coverage losses slowprocedures and capeq orders•AST rev grows +7% with 50bp mgn expansionin FY26•LS rev grows +7% in FY26 despite pressure inF2H•EBIT mgn +10bp in FY26, +30bp in FY27•FY27E EBITDA $1,902M, EV/EBITDA ~14.3x, PT= $263Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: 1) Product Quality & Safety:Ethylene Oxide (EO), a mission-critical commercialsterilant used on many healthcare products, is a carcinogen regulated by the EPA. EO facilities face publicbacklash, closures, and personal injury/property devaluation lawsuits related to EO emissions. STE isthe U.S.'s second-largest EO sterilizer, resulting in legal/regulatory risks.2) Product Design & LifecycleManagement:STE sells, services, and sterilizes tools and equipment used in medical procedures. Failureto successfully fix and sterilize critical tools and equipment could result in harm to patients.Company Targets:1) None explicitly statedQs to Mgt:1) How is STE continuing to reduce usage of EO and ensure compliance with updated FDAregs for EO?2)How does STE track defects in tools and equipment used in medical procedures? Is therepotential liability from STE's services or sterilization solutions not fulfilling industry compliance standards?Please see important disclosure information on pages 20 - 25 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$361, +47%•FX benefit 150bp+ in FY26•HC rev grows LDD%+ in FY26, returns to M-HSD% in FY27 despite policy challenges•AST rev grows +LDD% as X-ray and EO takeshare•LS continues to grow MSD%+ despite pharmafinancial pressure•Proposed policies finalize better than expected/have less impact•EBIT mgn +50bp in FY26/27•FY27E EBITDA $2,040M, EV/EBITDA ~18.1x, PT= $361 Downside Scenario,$198, -19%•No FX benefit in FY26 and headwind in FY27•HC rev grows LSD% or less in FY26/27, choppycapeq orders challenges mgn•AST rev grows MSD%- as bioprocessing andprocedural volumes slow•LS contracts due to pharma cuts•20M+lose insurance coverage,hospitalsreduce capex•EBIT mgn contracts in FY26/27•FY27E EBITDA $1,735M, EV/EBITDA ~12.1x, PT= $198Catalysts•F1Q26 earnings•Investor conferences•Tariff rates•Sharp change in FX rates•Healthcare policy developments that impacthealthcareservices delivery or biopharmacustomers•Introductionorrevisionregulations ofapplicable2 Exhibit 3 - STE's Enterprise Leans Heavily on Procedural Volumes (~86% of Rev) to Drive Demand.SegmentSegment RevsHEALTHCARE71/58% of STE Rev/EBIT15% IPT CapEq15% Procedural CapEq35% Services35% ConsumablesAST19/28% of STE Rev/EBIT~60% Gamma (Co-60)~25% Ethylene Oxide~10% X-Ray~5% E-Beam, VHPLIFE SCIENCES10/14% of STE Rev/EBIT25% CapEq30% Services45% ConsumablesNote 1: IPT = Infection Prevention Technologies, CapEq = Capital EquipmentSource: Company filings, JefferiesExecutive Summary: Bracing for the Impending StormFY26 Estimates' Next Move Is Probably Up, But FY27 Gets Cloudier ifReconciliation Bill PassesOver the next ~3 months, we think FY26 estimates get revised higher. FY27 could even ripple higher,extending the growth curve to next year, before the realities of new policies set in, which ultimatelypush FY27 estimates lower.With the disclaimer that the healthcare policy outlook is changing rapidly, we see the catalystcalendar as:•June 11th - HHS communicates most-favored nation (MFN) price targets to pharmaceuticalcompanies.•July 4th - Self-imposed and potentially aggressive deadline for Senate Republicans to pass aReconciliation Bill.•Early-to-mid July - C2Q25 earnings from managed care and medtech companies. We expectpositive commentary on utilization/volumes, which could be an incremental positive for STEvaluation/fundamentals.•Early August - STE reports F1Q26 results. It would be unusual for mgt to change guidance at thistime, although they could fold in a portion of the ~110bp favorable FX (JEFe) that isn't currentlyin the guide.On MFN and the Reconciliation bill, the market should be pricing in some headwind from these policydevelopments already. However, th