埃斯顿自动化（H/A）：给予H股卖出评级，短期盈利能力或持续承压

Initiate Estun-H with U/P; near-termprofitability could remain under pressure PO:12.00 HKD| Price:13.10 HKD InitiateEstun‑H at Underperform with PO of HKD12 20 April 2026 We initiate coverage of Estun-H (listed in March 2026) with an Underperform rating,given: (1) its near-term profitability should remain under pressure due to a high opex-to-sales ratio amid its expansion in new regional markets (notably Europe) and new sectors(such as auto, battery and electronics); and (2) we still see intensifying competition inthe industrial robot industry against the backdrop of import substitution, which shouldweigh on its near-term GPM. Our PO of Estun-H at HKD12 is derived using the DCFmethod, with 3% FCF perpetuity growth and 12.1% WACC (see details inside). We raiseEstun-A’s PO to RMB19.4 (from RMB18), based on an 80% premium to Estun-H, largelyin line with the historical average since the listing of the H-share. Equity Ming Hsun Lee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5006minghsun.lee@bofa.com Yikai Liu, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Fiona Liang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) 4Q25GPM up; guides >20% YoY sales growth in 2026 Summer Wang, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Estun’s 4Q25 revenue came in at RMB1.1bn, up 69% YoY but down 14% QoQ. GPM in4Q25 was up 3.9ppt YoY and up 2.9ppt QoQ at 33.0%, thanks to an improved productand customer mix. Operating profit (clean EBIT) turned positive to RMB29mn, vs. -RMB242mn in 4Q24. Estun recorded a net income of RMB16mn in 4Q25, compared with-RMB744mn in 4Q24, in line with its preliminary results announcement (RMB6-21mn).Looking ahead, Estun expects its revenue to rise 23% YoY to RMB6bn in 2026, withrobot shipment growing >20% YoY to 45k units (including 3k units in the overseasmarket). Estun targets 1-1.5ppt YoY improvement in GPM in 2026, with NPM improvingto 5% (vs. 1% in 2025), thanks to its better customer and geographical sales mix, and itscontinued cost-control efforts. Stock Data Near-term profitability pressure may persistEstunhas raised its ASP by 5-15% year-to-date amid market recovery. That said, we still see near-term profitability pressure, given cost hikes of key components (copper,magnetic materials) and the elevated opex amid its expansion in new regional marketsand sectors. We expect Estun to deliver RMB290mn/451mn earnings in 2026/27E. Valuation (Dec) >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 14. Analyst Certification on page 8. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 8.12960229 iQprofileSMESTUN Automation (H/A) Company Sector Industrials/Multi-Industry Company Description Estun Automation Co., Ltd. develops and manufacturesmechanical equipment such as CNC system, motioncontrol, and industrial robot, etc. The company ranked No.1in industrial robot delivery inChina in 2025, with 10%market share. Investment Rationale We rate Estun an Underperform, given 1) the intensifyingcompetition in the industrial robot industry weighs on itsnear-term ASP, and (2) its near-term profitability remainsunder pressure due high opex-to-sales ratio. Ranked No.1 in China; continued expansion in autoEstun sold 33.4k units of own-branded industrial robots (excl. CLOOS) in 2025, up 19% YoY, according to the MIR Databank. It ranked No. 1 in China’s industrial robot market interms of shipments, with 10.0% share in 2025 (vs. 9.5% in 2024), surpassing Fanuc. In2025, the auto and auto part sector accounted for 30-40% of its total industrial robotshipment, with key customers including BYD, Seres, and Geely. The battery sectoraccounted for another 15% of its industrial robot shipment. Exhibit3:4Q25 results comparisonNet income in4Q25 was RMB16mn, turning positive YoY Valuation and risks Estun-H PO of HKD12 We apply DCF valuation for Estun due to its earnings volatility (sometimes it hasincurred a net loss). We derive our H-share PO of HK$12 from DCF calculation, withassumptions of 3% FCF perpetuity growth and 12.1% WACC. Our WACC calculation isbased on 1.3x equity beta and 11.0% equity risk premium. Exhibit5:DCF valuation for EstunOur H-share PO is HKD12 Estun-A PO of RMB19.4 Our PO for Estun-A is RMB19.4 vs RMB18.0 previously. We apply an 80% A/H valuationpremium to our PO of Estun-H, which is in line with its historical average A/H valuationpremium and in line with how we value other A shares in o