2025年第四季度能量饮料表现疲软但长期前景仍存；首次给予东鹏控股H股买入评级

4Q25 energy drinks weakened butL-Toutlookremains; new Buy for Eastroc-H PO:270.00 HKD| Price:206.80 HKD Marketreaction likely overdone; still positive risk/rewardsWe cut our 2026/27E NPAT by 4%/5%post Eastroc’s 4Q25 miss and lower PO for 09April 2026 Eastroc‑A 14% to RMB280, to reflect earnings revisions and H‑share dilution. Theslowdown in energy drink growth (+8.5% YoY in 4Q25 vs. +19.6% in 9M25) was mainlydriven by channel destocking and calendar effects. We believe sales in a relatively lowseason are less indicative of the full-year trend and expect a healthy inventory level(after two quarters of destocking) and easy comps to fuel growth reaccelerationparticularly in 2H26. Our channel checks suggest mid‑teens energy drink sales growth in1Q26. Margins wise, mgmt. reaffirmed PET prices were locked in at low levels byend‑2025, covering most of 2026 packaging needs, which should enhance near-termearnings visibility. Eastroc‑A/H shares were -23%/-17% YTD, significantly trailing SSCEI/HSI (+1%/+1%), and we view the sell‑off as overdone. Eastroc‑H trades at <20x 2026EP/E, offering attractive risk‑reward given its best‑in‑class growth outlook, supported bystrong channel execution, improving brand equity, and a more diversified beverage mix.We reiterate Buy for Eastroc-A and initiate Eastroc‑H with a Buy rating and HK$270 PO. Equity Jack Chen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8776ruofan.chen@bofa.com Chen Luo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 2009chen.luo@bofa.com Multiple growth levers ahead1) Capacity ramp‑up: Tianjin factory began operations in Dec-2025, with Zhongshan & Kunming slated to commence in 2026, enabling wider consumer reach and deeper salespenetration. 2) Category expansion: Bushuila continues to deliver solid momentum, whilecoffee, tea, and Chinese‑style beverages are scaling up. 3) Brand building: Brand impactis improving through high‑profile sponsorships, such as Zhangxue Motorcycles recently. 2025/4Q25 results recap Sales were +31.8% in 2025, with energy/functional/other drinks +17%/+119%/+94% toaccount for 75%/16%/9% of total (vs. 84%/9%/7% in 2024). GPM was largely flat at44.9%. With SG&A/sales -62bp to 19.4% and tax rate of 21% in 2025 (vs. 19% in 2024),NPAT was +33% YoY with NPM +15bp to 21.2%. Eastroc proposed a total dividend ofRMB2.7bn in 2025, implying 61% payout (vs. 69% in 2024). 4Q25 sales/NPAT were+23%/+6% YoY, reflecting the pre‑loading of channel investments during the quarter. Acronyms: PET: polyethylene terephthalate >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 14 to 16. Analyst Certification on page 10. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 10.12956400 iQprofileSMEastroc (H/A) Company SectorSoft Drinks Company Description Eastroc, the China's energy drink leader, was founded in1994 and completed the restructuring from a state-ownedenterprise to a private company in 2003. Eastroc is a topplayer in China's energy industry. Eastroc Super Drink is thecompany's bestselling product, with production capacitiesacross the country. It has been approved by State Food andDrug Administration. Investment Rationale While wesee limited challenges from new entrants in thiswell-regulated industry and Red Bull also continues tosuffer from the trademark issues, Eastroc is on a fast trackto expand on a national scale and gain new market share,underpinned by its growing brand recognition, quality andunique product at a competitive price, and strong channelcapability. Earnings revision Exhibit1: Earnings revisionWe cut 2026E/27E EPS by 4%/5% We cut 2026/27E NPAT 4%/5% to reflect lower sales/margin estimates. Our PO forEastroc-H of HK$270 is based on a 50/50 blend of P/E and DCF. Our P/E value isHK$262/share on 25x 2026E P/E, in line with its historical average multiple. Our DCFvalue is at HK$278/share, on 9.0% WACC, 0.75 Beta (both unchanged). and 3% terminalgrowth (vs. previously 4% for Eastroc-A). Our PO for Eastroc-A is RMB280, based on a15% premium (historical average since H-share listing) to our H-share PO of HK$270 toreflect their share price gap. Exhibit2: 2025 results at a glance2025 revenue/NP was +32%/33% YoY Focus charts Exhibit4:Eastroc: Net profit forecastWe expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 17% during 2025-28 Source:Company, BofA Global Research Estimate Source:Company, BofA Global Research estimates Source:Company,