首次覆盖给予持有评级：全球雄心，但估值合理

EquitiesInternet Software & Services Initiate at Hold: Global ambition, but fair valuation China ◆Global foundation model company with 73% ofrevenue fromabroad; closest overseas comparables are OpenAI, Anthropic INITIATE AT HOLD TARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)1000.00 ◆Set to benefit from the exponentialtoken usage growthbut itsvaluation is fair vs leading foundation model companies ◆Initiate at Hold withaTP at HKD1,000,implying a 176x/59x2026e/27e PS andc6% downside SHARE PRICE(HKD)1060.00(as of01 Apr 2026) Hitting the accelerator:2026 is a pivotal year for AI companies that provide foundation(or large language) models that power various appsor agents. The models are robustand pricing is cheap enough for most to use,be it for coding, at work, or just helping inone’sdailylife. This report focuses on MiniMax, a China-based global foundation model A pureplay in the global market:MiniMax has highly diversified revenue: 73% is fromoverseas; one-third is from business customers, and two-thirds from consumers. It offersone of the cheapest models in the market (M-2.7) with strong performance in areas likecoding and workplace applications. It can iterate models very quickly thanks to a nimblecompany structure (thereareno more than three layers beneath the CEO), is highly We expect profitability in 2029e:Our 2026e-27e EPS forecasts are3-16% belowVisible Alphaconsensus as we expect highercomputing costs. We expect profitability in Initiate at Hold on fair valuation:MiniMax’s share price has rallied542% since IPO (vs.HSI-1% over the same period). It is trading at186x 2026e PS. We think it is fairly valuedwhen compared against the historical P/ARR ratios–avaluation method based onannualised revenue runrate–of OpenAI and Anthropic. Our DCF-basedTP of Ritchie Sun*, CFAAnalyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4392 Catalysts and risks:The launch of MiniMax’s M3 models in 1H26 andpossibleStockConnect inclusion are major catalysts. The major downside risks are: 1) launch of newmodels from competitors which may dilute its token usage growth;2) IPOs of competitors(e.g. Anthropic, OpenAI) which would reduce its scarcity premium;3) increasingcomputing bottleneck that limits its topline growth upside;4) lock-up periodsendingon8 Jul 2026 and 8 Jan 2027.Otherrisks:(+ve/-ve) Better/weaker-than-expected model Charlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg Peishan Wang* The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedpeishan.wang@hsbc.com.hk * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations This is our latest report on the Disruptive Technology theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes,click here. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with theDisclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:MiniMax Contents Focus charts Investment summary6A multi-modal global foundationmodel pureplay6 Initiating coverage on MiniMax(100 HK)12 Strong multi-modal capabilitieswith highly competitive pricing12Highly efficient in inferencing,training and internal workflows21 Business models24Diversified monetisation avenuesto boost growth potential24 1) Open platform under to-B (1/3rdof revenue in 2025, 44% in 2028e)26 2)Generative Media under to-C(Hailuo AI and MiniMax Audio)(1/3rdof revenue in 2025, 40% in 2028e)273) MiniMax Agent under to-C (1% ofrevenue in 2025, 10% in 2028e)314)Companionshipunder to-C (Talkiefor international markets / Xingye formainland China)(1/3rd of revenue in2025, 7% in 2028e)32 FinancialsFinancial forecasts Valuation and risksValuationUpside/downsiderisksUpside risksDownsiderisks Disclosure appendix49 Focus charts Investment summary ◆MiniMax is well positioned to capture more revenue market sharein the global foundation model market… ◆…thanks to its multi-modalcapabilities, competitive pricing backed ◆Valuation appears fair when compared to the P/ARR valuation A multi-modal global foundation model pureplay Exponential usage and topline growth powered by robust model and low cost MiniMaxis to China what one of the leading AI foundation models likeOpenAI’s GPT,Google’sGemini or Anthropic’s Claude is to the US and Europe.MiniMaxdifferentiates itself asafoundation model pureplaywith a global focus andisable tounderstand, generate and integratetext, videos, audio and images (i.e. multi-modal). Its latest model update, MiniMax-M2.7,performs robustlyin coding, agentic tool use as well as search and office work. Where it gets very competitive is it is priced at just 8