亚太地区基础材料行业2026年第二季度预览：金属走强，建材走弱

constructionmaterialsPrice Objective Change 2Q earnings Copper / Aluminum / Lithium in-line & strong Asia-PacificBasic Materials driving strong 2Q earnings per profit alerts. We remain constructive on copper andexpect the market to stay in deficit through 2026-27. Chinese copper miners trade at MattyZhao >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) just 7-9x FY27E P/E, materially below global peers at 13-23x and largely lagging thecopper prices rise. Buy Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, MMG, and CMOC.Aluminum:Our tracker showed 2Q aluminummargin +RMB400/t QoQ.Chalcoprofitalert shows 2Q26NPATat RMB5.67-6.67bn,+61%-89%YoY/+3%-21%QoQ.We +85235084001matty.zhao@bofa.comEdwardLeung,CFA>>Research AnalysMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) estimateHongqiao1H26NPATat c.RMB17.2bn.OurFY26/27aluminumpriceforecastsis RMB23k/21k/t as we expect the aluminum market to be less tight in 2H26-2027 vs.2025-1H26, given China producing at 2-3% over 45mnt cap, Middle East supplyresumption, and Indonesia supply. Buy on Hongqiao & Chalco.Gold:Gold price-7%QoQ.Weforecast Shandong Gold2Q26NPATat RMB1.2bn,-30%YoY/-14%QoQ.We forecastZhaojin2Q26NPAT at RMB830mn,+6%YoY/-30% +852 3508 3282edward.leung@bofa.comMiriam Chan, CFA >>Merill Lynch (Hong Kong) +85235087478Yibing Xia >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) QoQ.Our2026/27gold priceforecast isUS$4,360/US$4.8k/oz.Wesee headwinds inUSD and rates and potential weakerbuying interests from ETF,yet a less hawkish fedcomments and central banks buying provide support.Lithium:Weforecast Ganfeng2Q26NPATatRMB2.4bn,+32%QoQ,andTianqi2Q26NPATat RMB2.2bn.Our2026Chinalithium carbonatepriceforecast is at RMB165k/t, +85235088045yibing.xia@bofa.com Huayou's lithium/cobalt remains supportive.Steel:2Q26HRC prices averaged RMB3,379/t (+3%YoY/+3%QoQ),while rebar prices averaged RMB3,270/t (-3% YoY/+1%QoQ).However, profitability remained underpressure, with HRC margins at -RMB269/t and rebar margins at -RMB265/t, primarilydue to higher iron ore and coking coal prices. Steel margin is likely to remain subdued.Weak cement but strong e-glass / auto glass Cement:Construction demand has been weak with5M26China cement production contracting by 8.6% yoy, and cement prices and margin have declined further. WeforecastConch2Q26NPATatRMB1,510mn,-41%YoY/+3%QoQ,andCNBM2Q26NPAT at RMB1,798mn, -10% YoY, milder than Conch thanks to its rising e-glass fibercontribution.Glassfiber:WeforecastChinaJushi2Q26at RMB1,775mn,+73%YoY/+77%QoQ,andSinomaS&T2Q26atRMB699mn,+10%YoY/+38%QoQ.Glass:Weforecast Xinyi Glass 1H26 to post +4% YoY, due to higher auto glass earningsoffsetting weak float glass and in the absence of impairment last year, while XinyiSolar would be mildly loss-making at RMB86mn, as solar glass's steep losses to wipeout solarfarm earnings.SeeExhibit1for detailed2Q26EforecastsWe make changes to our estimates and POs for Conch-A/H, CNBM, Oriental Yuhong, Xinyi Glass, Kibing Glass, Sinoma Sci & Tech and Xinyi Solar. Please see inside fordetails. We present2Q26 preview summary below Exhibit 2: Summary of changesWe are revising earnings and PO for construction materials stocks in general, while lifting earnings for names with earnings contribution from non-construction materials segment, such as e-glass and auto glass. Zijin - profit alert slightly miss: Zijin issued a profit alert, with 1H26 NPAT reaching implied2Q26 NPAT was RMB19bn (+45%YoY,-5%QoQ), while recurringNPAT came inat RMB19.4bn (+5% QoQ), below our expectations.We attribute the miss primarily tothe weaker-than-expected 2Q26 results at Zijin Gold International. Excluding this impact,Zijin Mining's 2Q26 earnings would have been broadly in line with our forecasts. On theFY26 guidance, mainly driven by the ramp-up of Zijin Gold's Akyem and Raygorodok (RG)mines. Mined copper output declined 6% YoY to 534kt, achieving 45% of full-yearguidance, primarily due to disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, in our view. Lithiumcarbonate output surged 514% YoY to 43kt, representing 36% of FY26 guidance,supported by the ramp-up of the 3Q Salt Lake, Lakkor Tso and Xiangyuan projects.Management also attributed the strong earnings growth to margin expansion driven byhigher ASPs. Average LME copper prices reached USs13,309/t in 2Q26 (+40% YoY, +4%QoQ), while China sulfuric acid prices averaged RMB1,896/t (+192% YoY, +64% QoQ)Meanwhile,average gold prices increased 37% YoY but declined 8%QoQ toUS$4,508/oz. See details: Zijin Mining (H):2Q26 NPAT of RMB19bn (+45% YoY): miss onZijin Gold Int'l, others broadly in line 10 July 2026 Rmb15.5-16.5bn, up 79-90% YoY. This implied 2Q26 NPAT of Rmb7.7-8.7bn, +64%-85%YoY/+0%-13%QoQ,aheadof market expectations as investors had beenconcernedabout the potential margin impact from elevated sulfur costs. We believe the resilientresult in 2Q reflects a combination of 1) Higher copper output: 1H26 copperproduction reached 388kt (+9.7% YoY), implied 2Q +6% QoQ at 200kt; 2) highercopper&molybdenumpriceQoQ;3)controlofsulfurcostwith3-monthinvento