中国基础材料行业周报：铜社会库存下降，铝走弱，金价下跌，钢材走软

Copper Social Inventory Down; AluminumWeakens; Gold Falls; Steel Softens Industry Overview 22 June 2026 Copper Inventory Down; Aluminum Weakens; Gold FallsMacro factors were mixed this week, with easing geopolitical risks and sticky US inflation driving a pullback in copper and heightened volatility. Fundamentally, copper fundamentalsremained resilient on declining inventories, while demand stayed price‑sensitive withlargely on‑demand procurement. This week, LME copper fell 0.9% WoW to USD 13,527/t,while China spot rose 0.5% WoW to RMB 105,270/t; TC/RC remained deeply negative at–USD 120.7/t. As of Jun 21, Shanghai copper bonded warehouse/social inventoriesdeclined 28.1%/15.2% WoW, while Guangdong bonded warehouse inventories fell 3.6%and social inventories were flat. LME aluminum declined 3.8% WoW to USD 3,400/t, withChangjiang spot down 1.1% to RMB 23,870/t and margins easing to RMB 7,593/t. Amongother commodities, gold fell 1.5%, lithium carbonate edged up 0.5%, U₃O₈rose 1.0%,Shanghai cobalt declined 2.3%, NdPr oxide gained 3.9%, and tungsten edged down 1.0%WoW. EquityChinaBasic Materials Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.com Edward Leung, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3282edward.leung@bofa.com Steel PricesFall Back on Weak Data and Demand ConcernsEarly in the week, policy support and improved sentiment lifted the ferrous complex, but Miriam Chan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478miriam.chan@bofa.com prices corrected later as coke hikes were largely priced in, margins compressed, andweaker-than-expected May data weighed on demand. On the spot side, HRC basisnarrowed on some speculative demand while rebar basis widened; end-user demandremained cautious with no evident pre-holiday restocking. As of Jun 18, rebar and HRC fell0.8%/0.4% WoW to RMB 3,282/t and RMB 3,366/t, while iron ore declined 2.2% to USD99.3/t; inventories rose slightly, consumption softened to 8.45mnt, and margins weakenedfurther. Yibing Xia>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8045yibing.xia@bofa.com Yiming Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5037yiming.wang@bofa.com Cement/Glass: Demand Softened; Paper Margins RecoverCement:The average national cement price inched down 0.1% WoW to RMB313/t as of Jun 18th. The nationwide shipment ratio increased by 1.0ppts WoW to 40.1%, and theinventory ratio remained the same as 64.7%. In mid-June, cement demand remainedweak as seasonal factors such as exams and intermittent rainfall weighed ondownstream activity. On pricing, although producers in multiple regions continued topush for increases to ease operating pressure, price gains were constrained by soft end-market demand.Glass:National average float glass price (incl. VAT) edged down 0.5%WoW to RMB1,114/t amid weak downstream orders and the Dragon Boat Festivalholiday. Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass GPM declined by 0.5ppts to 7.7%.Paper:Paper prices increased 1.0% WoW to RMB3,755/t as of Jun 17 amid narrowing supply-demand gap.Solar glass:Our calculation shows Flat Glass GPM (2.0mm) and Xinyi SolarGPM (2.0mm) were flattish / -0.3% WoW, respectively. Peter Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185peter.wang2@bofa.com See glossary at the end of the report Key charts Exhibit1:Copper and aluminum spot pricesLME copper price -0.9% WoW to US$13,527/t and LME aluminum price was - Exhibit2:Copper social inventoryAs of Jun 21, Shanghai bonded warehouse inventory/Shanghai social 3.8% WoW at USD 3,400/t as of Jun 19 inventory was -28.1% / -15.2% WoW; Guangdong bonded warehouseinventory/Guangdong social inventory was -3.6% / flat WoW Exhibit3: Domestic monthly treatment charges on CuconcentrateDomestic monthly treatment charges on copper concentrate: -US$120.7/t as Exhibit4: Avg. national aluminum margin (60% captiveplant)Avg. national aluminum margin declined by RMB270/t WoW to RMB7,593/t as of Jun 18 of Jun 18 Exhibit6: Spot cash margins at steel millsBy Jun 12, spot rebar and HRC cash margins fell RMB 46/t and RMB 36/t to – Exhibit5: COMEX gold spot priceCOMEX gold (spot) fell 1.5% WoW to US$4,156/oz as of Jun 19. RMB 334/t and –RMB 360/t, respectively. Source:Wind, BofA Global Research Exhibit8: ASP at Qinhuangdao port (Kcal5,500)ASP of QHD 5,500kcal spot price remained the same WoW as RMB860/t as Exhibit7: Containerboard margin trackerNine Dragons margin tracker is now indicating NP/t of RMB102/t for this week of Jun 17 Source:Sxcoal, BofA Global Research Exhibit9: China national cement shipment ratioThe nationwide shipment ratio increased by 1ppts WoW to 41.7% as of Jun Exhibit5: Lithium carbonate unit refining marginCurrent lithium carbonate refining margin based on spodumene has 18 improved but stayed negative amid decreasing spodumene price Source:Digital cement, BofA Global Research Exhibit10: National Float Glass Price and XinyiFloatGlass GPMAs of Ju