基础材料 - 中国：铜价区间受限，铝利润率收窄，钢铁走软

Copper Range‑bound; Aluminum Margins Industry Overview Copper steady on macro noise; aluminum margins narrow 01 June 2026 Macro volatility from US‑Iran talks, Middle East tensions, US inflation data and shiftingFed signals kept copper trading range‑bound at elevated levels, with a late‑week reboundon improved deal expectations. Fundamentally, limited imports and increased domestic EquityChina supply slightly eased spot tightness, though high‑grade material remained scarce; elevatedprices suppressed demand to mainly need‑based buying, with only a modest pickup inrestocking as prices softened. On prices, LME copper edged up 0.3% WoW to USD13,656/t, with China spot copper up 0.2% WoW to RMB 104,900/t, while spot TC/RCstayed deeply negative at–USD 107.3/t. LME aluminum rose 0.9% WoW to USD 3,752/t,while Changjiang spot fell 0.6% WoW to RMB 24,210/t, with smelting margins narrowingto RMB 7,936/t. Gold gained 0.5% WoW to USD 4,531/oz. Lithium carbonate slipped 0.3% Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001 Edward Leung, CFA>>ResearchAnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3282 Miriam Chan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478 Steel: Cost support fades as demand momentum softens A coal mine accident in Shanxi last weekend lifted expectations of tighter regulation andpotential supply disruptions, driving a cost-led rebound in ferrous prices. This wasshort‑lived, as rapid mine restarts and hopes of a US‑Iran deal pushed oil prices lower,weakening cost support and triggering a pullback in most products, except coking coal andcoke. Later in the week, data on key steel products showed continued inventory destockingbut softer apparent demand, with supply‑demand pressure edging higher. As of May 29,rebar and HRC prices were down 0.5% and up 0.5% WoW at RMB3,350/t and RMB3,436/t,respectively,while iron ore fell 1.8% WoW to USD105.4/t. Finished steel inventories Yibing Xia>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8045 Yiming Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5037 Peter Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185 Cement/Glass/Paper: Remained softCement:The average national cement price remained the same WoW as RMB314/t as of May 29nd. The nationwide shipment ratio increased by 2.2ppts WoW to 40.4%, and the inventory ratio also inched up by 0.9% to 67.1%. By end-May, improving weatherconditions mildly lifted demand. Entering June, factors such as the high school andcollege entrance exams, the rainy season, and the farming cycle are expected to causetemporary disruptions to construction activity, keeping demand soft; however, firm pricediscipline should support a volatile uptrend.Glass:National average float glass price(incl. VAT) inched down by 0.7% WoW to RMB1,139.8 /t amid pronounced regionaldivergence, while inventories remained elevated. Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass See glossary at the end of the report Key charts Exhibit1:Copper and aluminum spot pricesLME copper price +0.3% WoW to US$13,656/t and LME aluminum price was As of May 29, Shanghai bonded warehouse inventory/Shanghai socialinventory was flattish / -3.5% WoW; Guangdong bonded warehouseinventory/Guangdong social inventory was -6.8% / flattish WoW +0.9% WoW at USD 3,752/t as of May 29 Exhibit3: Domestic monthly treatment charges on Cu concentrateDomestic monthly treatment charges on copper concentrate: -US$107.3/t asof May 29 Exhibit4: Avg. national aluminum margin (60% captive plant)Avg. national aluminum margin fell by RMB 150/t WoW to RMB7,936/t as ofMay 29 Source:Bloomberg, SMM, Wind, BofA Global Research Exhibit6: Spot cash margins at steel millsBy May 29, spot rebar cash margins fell by RMB 19/t to –RMB 190/t, while spot HRC cash margins decreased by RMB 24/t to –RMB 223/t COMEX gold (spot) price inched up by 0.5% WoW to US$4,531/oz as of May29 ASP of QHD 5,500kcal spot price increased by 1.2% WoW as RMB840/t as ofMay 27 Source:Sxcoal, BofA Global Research Exhibit5: Lithium carbonate unit refining marginCurrent lithium carbonate refining margin based on spodumene hasimproved while stayed negative amid decreasing spodumene price Source:SMM, BofA Global Research, SCI99 Source:Digital cement, BofA Global Research Exhibit10: National Float Glass Price and XinyiFloatGlass GPMAs of May 28, the national average float glass price inched down by 0.7%WoW to RMB1,139.8/t. Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass GPM fell by1.2ppts to 10.3% BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Copper steady on macro noise; aluminummargins narrow Macro volatility from US‑Iran talks, Middle East tensions, US inflation data and shiftingFed signals kept copper trading range‑bound at elevated levels, with a late‑week reboundon improved deal expectations. Fundamentally, limited imports and increased domesticsupply slightly eased spot tightness, though high‑grade material remained scarce; elevatedprices suppressed demand to mainly need‑based buying, with only a mod