中国基础材料：铜、铝和锂价格上涨；铁矿石走强

Copper, Aluminum and Lithium Rally;Ironore Strengthens Industry Overview 20 April 2026 Copper, Aluminum and Lithium Lead Price GainsCopper prices surged this week, with elevated price levels weighing on downstream demand amid falling utilization rates and purchasing largely limited to rigid demand.LME copper rose 3% WoW to USD13,206/t, while China spot prices climbed 3.8% WoWto RMB102,160/t. Shanghai bonded and social inventories down 12.5% and 9% WoW,respectively; Guangdong bonded inventories fell 11.1% WoW while social stocks wereflat. Meanwhile, spot copper TC/RC dropped to a record low of–US$80/t, underscoringpersistent supply tightness. LME aluminum gained 3.2% WoW to USD3,678/t,meanwhile the Changjiang spot price rose by 2.5% WoW to RMB25,160/t, with marginsexpanding to RMB8,981/t. Gold increased 0.8% WoW to USD4,788/oz. Lithiumcarbonate rose by 9.0% WoW to RMB169,500/t; U₃O₈rose 0.5% WoW to USD85/lb; andShanghai also rose 0.5% to RMB416,000/t; NdPr oxide prices rose 2% to RMB774k/t,while tungsten prices fell 3% to RMB898k/t. EquityChinaBasic Materials Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.com Edward Leung, CFA>>ResearchAnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3282edward.leung@bofa.com Miriam Chan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478miriam.chan@bofa.com Steel: Iron ore price rose onsupply concernMidweek, an unexpected refinery shutdown in Australia heightened concerns over diesel shortages and near‑term iron ore supply tightening. Supported by expectations of asecond round of coke price hikes and improved sentiment, the ferrous complex rallied inthe latter half of the week, with spot trading picking up and overseas billet ordersoutperforming finished steel. As of April 17, rebar and HRC prices rose 2.1% and 1.8%WoW to RMB3,316/t and RMB3,368/t, respectively, while iron ore gained 2.6% WoW toUS$107.45/t. Finished‑steel inventories fell 2.7% WoW, apparent consumption edged up0.8% WoW to 9mnt, and steel margins weakened modestly, with rebar and HRC marginsat–RMB253/t and–RMB259/t. Yibing Xia>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8045yibing.xia@bofa.com Yiming Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5037yiming.wang@bofa.com Cement/Glass/Paper: Weak performanceCement:The average national cement price decreased by 0.9% WoW to RMB324/t as of Peter Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185peter.wang2@bofa.com Apr 17th. Specifically, prices in Chongqing rose by RMB50/t, while prices in Henan,Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou declined by RMB10-30RMB/t. The nationwideshipment ratio rose by 2.4ppts WoW to 39.6%, and the inventory ratio also increased by2.0ppts to 64.3%. Overall, demand remains weak, with inventories at mid-to-high levels.Cross-regional low-priced inflows and intermittent rainy weather continue to weigh onprices across many regions.Glass: National average float glass price (incl. VAT) edgeddown 0.82% WoW to RMB1,181/t amid ongoing shipment needs across most regions.Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass GPM narrowed by 1.0ppts to 15.7%.Paper: Paperprices edged down 0.3% WoW to RMB3,601/t as of Apr 15 amid continued expandedsupply-demand gap.Solar glass: Spot 3.2mm coated solar glass mid-point prices wasflattish WoW to RMB 15.75, while 2.0mm coated solar glass mid-point prices downRMB0.05/sqm to RMB9.50/sqm. Our calculation shows Flat Glass GPM (2.0mm) andXinyi Solar GPM (2.0mm) down -15.7%/-8.0% WoW. Solar glass daily capacity down by0.17% WoW to 88,000t/day and inventory days expanded 2.5% WoW to 46.30 during theweek-ended on 16 Apr 2026. See glossary at the end of the report Key charts Exhibit1:Copper and aluminum spot pricesLME copper price +3% WoW to US$13,206/t and LME aluminum price was Exhibit2:Copper social inventoryAs of 19 Apr, Shanghai bonded warehouse inventory/Shanghai social +3.2% WoW at USD 3,678/t as of 17 Apr inventory was -12.5% / -9% WoW; Guangdong bonded warehouseinventory/Guangdong social inventory was -11.1% / flattish WoW Domestic monthly treatment charges on copper concentrate: -US$80/t as of17 Apr Exhibit5: COMEX gold spot priceCOMEX gold (spot) pricewas +0.8%WoW to US$4,788/oz as of17Apr Exhibit6: Spot cash margins at steel millsBy Apr 17, spot rebar cash margins fell by RMB 44/t to –RMB 253/t, while spot HRC cash margins also decreased by RMB 12/t to –RMB 259/t Source:Wind, BofA Global Research Exhibit7: Containerboard margin trackerNine Dragons margin tracker is now indicating NP/t of RMB55/t for this week Exhibit8: ASP at Qinhuangdao port (Kcal5,500)ASP of QHD 5,500kcal spot price rose 1.3% WoW to RMB765/t as of 15 Apr Exhibit9: China national cement shipment ratioThe nationwide shipment ratio rose by 2.4ppts WoW to 39.6% as of 17 Apr Exhibit5: Lithium carbonate unit refining marginCurrent lithium carbonate refining margin based on spodumene has improved yet stayed negative amid decreasing spodumene price Source:Digital ce