美国多元工业与电气设备行业2026年第二季度盈利预览

US Multis 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Data Center & HVAC (VRT, NVT,TT, JCI, CARR) VRT:Expectations are high and a lack of quarterly orders data does leave the market a bitblind. We think the story is less about how the numbers play out (it will likely be a beat, as itusually is) and more about forward-looking growth guidance. Continued growth at or above~30% is what we think the stock will need to deliver on orders / revenue to maintain themultiple. The stock is well covered and investors are worried about the second-derivative ofrevenue (rate of change in growth) turning negative. Commentary on the pipeline / backlogprofile is our priority. We come in at $1.48 on quarterly EPS (slightly above the higher end ofVRT’s guide).Re-iterate OP with a $416 TP. Varun Govindaraj+1 917 344 8543varun.govindaraj@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com NVT:Ourtop pick going into earnings. You’d be surprised at how many of ourconversations are about explaining NVT and the business to investors. Expectations arehigh from those that follow the name but there seems to be room for positive surprises,especially as liquid cooling capacity ramps up. Orders can be lumpy but that’s what themarket will be looking for (in particular for SP). Some margin concerns over the last coupleof quarters but we think operating leverage (for SP) and pricing / productivity (on EC)should keep these under control looking ahead.We raise our PT to $220 (from $218)and re-iterate our OP. TT:Expensive, but reliable operators that we expect will compound EPS at low to mid teens.Big debates we hear are around when large applied HVAC orders growth (driven by datacenters) will materialize into revenue, we think it could start to see that play out this quarter.We expect incremental margins for Americas to come in around 30% , and EPS at $4.28(slightly higher than the guide). Level loading of resi HVAC production should also help withmargins this quarter.We raise our PT to $555 (from $550) and re-iterate our OP. JCI:We have EPS $1.31 going into the quarter, vs. management guide of closer to $1.28from the previous Q earnings call. Consensus is between that range depending on who youask (BBG vs. VA). JCI lags Trane by about a quarter on DC orders growth inflection so it maytake a bit longer for the revenue to bleed through (this has been a point of contention withinvestors). It’s still early to see benefits from the transformation but progress vs. timeline(12 - 18 months) will be of interest. We’ve modeled incrementals at 45% for the Q but thinkthat could come in higher since management has guided 50% for the FY.We mechanicallylower our PT to $173 (from $176) and re-iterate our OP. CARR:Like with TT and JCI, the DC part of the story is what matters most. There’s anarrative that CARR has been winning more than it’s fair share on chillers so the questionwe’ll be trying to parse is the sustainability of that edge. Definitely the greatest rate ofchange potential of the three HVAC names we cover since they have the smallest DCexposure. US resi. sentiment has shifted for the better, but that seems to largely be priced ingiven the more recent uptick. Europe is the wild card, it’s been HOT this summer and it doesseem like heat pumps are doing well (although boilers remain weak) but too early to say ifthat will structurally help Viessmann.Re-iterate MP with a $75 TP. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate VRTOutperformwith a TP of$416We rate NVTOutperformwith a TP of$220We rate TTOutperformwith a TP of$555We rate JCIOutperformwith a TP of$173We rate CARRMarket-Performwith a TP of$75 RESEARCH INDEX Marketing deckUS Multis Initiation: Thrills and Chills InitiationUS Multis Initiation: Thrills and Chills Company ModelsCARR / Carrier Global CorporationJCI / Johnson Controls International PLCNVT / nVent Electric PLCTT / Trane Technologies PLCVRT / Vertiv Holdings Co Primer Library Liquid Cooling Primer: Cold PlatesData Center Chillers (3/3): How much can "free cooling" impact chiller service revenues?Data Center Chillers (2/3): How real is Chiller Gate risk?Data Center Chillers (1/3): Primer and free cooling economicsLiquid Cooling Primer: Coolant Distribution Units (CDUs) Last quarter sector researchFeedback from our initiation (Data Centers + HVAC): VRT, NVT, TT, JCI, CARRLiquid Cooling: What does Google's Brazos mean for the broader CDU ecosystem?Quick Take: Recap of our meeting with management (TT)Quick Take: Recap of our meeting with management (VRT)US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline - Capacity, Construction & Cancellations (May '26) VERTIV Vertiv is guiding between $3.25 and $3.45B in revenues for 2Q26, with adjusted operating margins between 20.7% - 21.7%and EPS at $1.4 at the midpoint. Sell side consensus (based on BBG) is around $3.4B on revenues, ~21.6% on operatingmargins, and ~$1.43 on diluted EPS. We are not materially variant from consensus going into the quarter (