日本2026年第二季度策略：估值下调、盈利分化与情绪冲击——如何定位？

Japan Strategy Q226: De-rating, diverging earnings and sentimentshock - How to position? The negotiation between US-Iran fell-off over the weekend, bringing back re-escalationconcerns. Such uncertainty makes barbell positioning most ideal. See Asia Quant StrategyQ226: Iran War ceasefire - How to position?. Japan was one of the worst hit markets inMarch, down -13% but has also recovered sharply MTD. In this report, we give an update ontrends seen in Q1 in Japan to see where risk and opportunities are emerging. We maintainour barbell positioning of domestics and exporters and value+GARP/QARP to hedgeagainst macro/geopolitical uncertainty but at the same time align with earnings. Rupal Agarwal+65 6326 7641rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.com Cheng Zhang, CFA, CQF+852 2123 2636cheng.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Valuations, earnings, sentiment-what has changed?Japan market has seen sharp de-rating, dropping from 17.3x to 15.4x fwd. PE ie. 10yr avg. Even earning cycle seem to bepeaking, led by Discretionary and Financials while Communications/Utilities continue toshow downward revision and Real Estate/Industrial are at risk of peak upgrades. Staples,Energy, Healthcare, Materials, Tech still have room for upward revision to continue. Investorsentiment also took a sharp hit - Mar 2026 was on record, the highest monthly FII outflowfor Japan (-52bn USD), however retail investors were net buyers. YTD, domestic institutionshave pulled out -33bn USD, however, their sentiment has improved recently turning theminto net buyers. Net short position on Yen has built-up since beginning of the year-while it isstill shy of the summer of 2024 levels, the risk of carry trade unwind has increased. Domestic vs. exporters:We maintain our recommendation for a barbell of domestics andexporters. YTD, exporters have done better than domestics (7% vs. 1%), largely driven bySemis and Cap goods; however, the number of domestic sectors that have outperformedis much higher ie. Energy, Retailing, Materials, Financials, Utilities etc. Domestics stillhave better top line growth (4% vs. -1% by exporters), better ROE (12% vs. 11%), higherdividend yield (2.1% vs. 1.6%) and buyback yield (1.45% vs. 1.15%). We believe thecurrency tailwind for exporters is also largely behind us, however, the scope for relativeearnings improvement is still higher for exporters vs. domestics. Industry outlook:Our updated industry framework (hit rate of 62%) is positive towardsAutos, Tech Hardware, Materials, Commercial & Professional Services, Retailing, Banks andInsurance and is cautious towards Consumer Durables & Apparel, Media & Entertainment,Transportation, Food & Staples Retailing. Japan tech still looks well positioned given cheapvaluations (-0.6SD) and ongoing earnings upgrade cycle. However, all sub-sectors are nowin a de-rating cycle, leaving earnings as the key anchor - Semis, electronic equipment andfactory automation still have room for upward revisions to continue. Style positioning:We maintain our barbell approach of value+GARP/QARP. For valueexposure, we stick to high yielding names to hedge against the war and inflation risk whileselective exposure towards growth and quality are a play on improving earnings revisions.There is also 88% probability of a hike in June, bringing back the macro support for valuenames. While growth stocks are at record high momentum, clear inflection hasn’t happenedyet. However, it is important to position in exposures where room for momentum build-up isstill high ie. yield and quality.All updated screens are in Exhibit 32-Exhibit 33 DETAILS Japanese equities started the year positively-till Feb, MSCI Japan Index was up 14% while NK225 Index did even better, up 17%in dollar terms. However, the Iran war created sharp downside pressure for Japanese markets, which we down -13% duringMarch though markets have seen some recovery, MTD in April, up 7%. In this report, we want to address if anything meaningfulhas changed in Q1 that should warrant a change in positioning within Japan. Performance so far So far, Semis (35%) has been the winning sector in 2026, followed by Energy (29%), Materials (21%) and Capital Goods (25%)while Software & Services (-26%), Food & Staples Retailing (-21%) and Media & Entertainment (-14%) have suffered the most.YTD, exporters have done better, up 7% vs. domestics up 1%. From factor perspective, GARP has been the winning factorin Japan YTD, up 5.7% relative to market, followed by earnings momentum and price momentum, up 4.7%/4.4% relative tomarket respectively. Value (2.7%), Growth (2.4%) and FCFDY (1.5%) have also generated alpha. The worst styles YTD, havebeen quality and small-caps, down -5% and -4.3% respectively vs. market. In March, the biggest hit was on GARP and QARPnames, down -3% to -4% relative to the market, unlike in Asia ex Japan where momentum was the worst impacted. The factorsthat gave most downside protection was low vol, high yield and value. YTD, momentum within tech sector has outperfor