SK海力士2026年第二季度预览：强劲业绩与美国存托凭证溢价

Semiconductors&Equipment well as soaring NAND margins+HBMpricehikespowerarobust2H26eand2027e;ADR 4,000,0002,900,000 momentumalsoapositivecatalyst +MaintainBuy;RaiseTPtoKRW4m(fromKRW2.9m);wenowprefer SK Hynix within ourglobal memory coverage 2,555,000+56.6%(as of 23 Jun 2026) Soaring 2Q26 earnings: Driven by (1) DRAM and NAND ASP rises of +40% q-0-qand +50% q-0-q, (2) improved NAND margins from the 321-layer upgrade, (3) 2%+618% y-0-y) on KRW82trn sales (+56% q-0-q, +269% y-0-y). With rising demand forhikes should stay elevated, lifting OP margin to 65% in 2Q26 vs 30% in 4Q25. RobustDRAM demand, with the proliferation of agentic Al leading to strong demandforgeneral servers andmobile SO-CAMM2, supports ASPgains and margin expansion. HBM price hikes to lead 2H growth: Continued DRAM and NAND price rises shoulddrivea28%-0-qriseinOPtoKRW84trn,on KRW104trnsales(+27%q-0-g,+327%y-o-y). HBM price hikes should underpin stronger growth, supported by 50-60%marketshare.HBMhasbeenlosingitspremiumtocommodityDRAMdespitethe50%HBM4 premium should support an ASP rise:we assume ASP up 35% y-o-y in2027e, with OP of KRW452trn (+59% y-0-y) on sales of KRW556trn (+59% y-0-y). Weapply a 20%premium for theADRlisting:The company filed its plans for theADR listing on 24 June (see: exhibit 1), and we think it is now appropriate to reflectthis in our valuation.PeerMicron has traded atan average 35%premium to SKHynix over the past 13 years, driven by (1) better access to Us investors, (2) a moreshareholder-friendly policy,and (3) higher beta supported by a smaller earningsbase.Weview Hynix's potential ADR listingpositively;accordingly,we apply a 20%premium to our prior P/B multiple of 2.8x, implying 3.4x, reflecting more proactiveshareholder-friendly initiatives and improved accessibility to global investors. RickySeo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8777 Han Kil Chang*The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited,Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 Agentic Al and csP capex drive demand: We see the memory cycle as similar to1990-95's supercycle,while agentic Al lifts general-serverunit shipments 20%/21%in 2026/27e, supported by sustained CSP investment as ROIC improves. Al is alsobroadening memory demandbeyond HBM tolower-cost options (e.g.,SO-CAMM2,ICMS), leading to strong USD643bn capex for the top-4 CSPs (+71% y-0-y) in 2026e. *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy; Raise TP to KRW4m (from KRW2.9m); prefer SK Hynix: Onstronger commoditymemory and HBMpricing,weraise2026/27/28eOPby8%/17%/18%. We apply a 3.4x target P/B to our updated 2027/28e average BVPS toderive our TP, which implies 8x PE on 2027/28e average EPS; our OP is 3-7% aboveconsensus. Risks: higher US rates, strong capacity adds, Middle East conflict. No country for bears / The 24 edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures&Disclaimer Thisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsinthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global InvestmentResearch at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com Source:WSTS,TrendForce,Companydata,HSBCestimates Source: DRAMeXchange,HSBC estimates Source: DRAMeXchange,HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source:HSBC estimates (see:Global ech-Open Al:Commitments vs cash fowsSource: Company data, Bloomberg consensus estimatesrevisited, 24 Nov 2025, by Nicolas Cote-Colisson),Bloomberg consensus estimates UpcyclesDetails(1) 1990-1995Personal computer (PC) boom, widespread adoption of PC by households, leading to growth in DRAM demand(2) 1998-2000Strong replacement demand from the Y2K'crisis,leading to even strongerPC replacement investment(3)2002-2006(4) 2009-2010Launch of the world's first smartphone, and start of a new era in mobile application demand(5) 2012-2015(6) 2016-2018Widespread adoption of streaming services,leading to accelerated investmentin cloud infrastructure and digital transition(7) 2020-2022Unprecedented demand boom from WFH' trend causing more demand for PC, Chromebooks, and Tablet computers amid the global pandemic(8)1H24-current Gen Al application demand growth,core of Al is moving from training (GPU)to inferencing (memory)Source: HSBC Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Valuation Downside risks: 1) Higher US interest rates asneo-CSPs and Open Al implement investment throughfinancing; 2) more aggressive capacity expansion atmemory makers, 3) KRW appreciation, leading toweaker earnings and margin pressure. We calculate a fair value target price of EUR2,319 (fromEUR1.731)for the GDR listed on the Frankfurt stock exchange(HY9H GR, EUR1,480) based on our local share target priceusing a EUR/KRW ex