SK海力士（000660 KS）：买入：第二季度预览：DRAM领导地位可能在收益中闪耀

SK Hynix(000660 KS) Buy:2Q preview: DRAM leadership likelytoshine inearnings Korea ◆Robust 2Q performance due to surging DRAM shipmentsandhigher blended ASP from DDR4 and HBM3e 12 high impact MAINTAIN BUY ◆Benefitsfrom upward price and HBM leadershipsettocontinue in 2H25, even at HBM4 TARGET PRICE(KRW)PREVIOUS TARGET(KRW)360,000340,000SHARE PRICE(KRW)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE235,500+52.9%(as of13 Jun 2025) ◆Maintain Buywithnew TP of KRW360k (fromKRW340k) fromearnings upgrade Better 2Q outlook:We assume 5% higher 2Q operating profit than previouslyatKRW9trn (+21% q-o-q, +65% y-o-y) thanks to 1) stronger DRAM bitshipments,up16% q-o-q (previously up 13%),due to rush orders from inventory restocking at PCand smartphone customers;2) higher blended ASP up 6% and 2% q-o-q (previouslyup 3% and flat q-o-q for DRAM/NAND) from soaring DDR4 prices as well as robustDDR5 and mobile DRAM prices (see:Asia memory report,17June 2025);3) positivemargin impact from more HBM3e 12 high contribution, which hasa10-15% pricepremium, leading to 2Q sales of KRW21trn (+18% q-o-q, +27% y-o-y). We believeHynix will benefit from both DRAM and NANDprice hikes as well as escalatingHBM3e demand recovery from general-purpose GPU and ASIC customers.Thestrong performance at HBM would result in strong 2Q earnings as HBM shouldaccount for50% of DRAM sales withtheHBM3e 12high portion hoveringabove 50%. Benefits from upward price trend in 2H25:We expectsequential OP growth of 21% in3Q at KRW11trn (up 56% y-o-y) with sales of KRW23trn (up 13% q-o-q, 34% y-o-y) thanksto 1) surging server and mobile demand from memory content growth;2) ongoingrobustserver DRAM demand from 82%higherChinese CSP capex from earlier this year;3) rising HBM and high density eSSD demand from AI server customers;and 4) Hynix’s1b-nm migration for both HBM and conventional DRAM as well as 23x layer upgrade forNAND to reduce costs. We assume HBM sales willaccountfor 58% ofthetotal by 4Q25from 45% in 1Q25,while 12 high will account for more than 90% of HBM sales. Moreover,we think the company will start HBM4 shipment from 4Q, which has a 10-15% netpremium per bit (including yield loss and die size penalty) overtheprevious version,helping continued improvement in blended ASP and profitability. In addition,we expect50% DRAM content growth for the new iPhone in 2HandGB300 will consume 135% moreconventional DRAM than GB200,whichwillsupportan enduringmemoryprice hike. Ricky Seo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8777 Continued leader in HBM4, ASIC and customized HBM:As previously highlighted(see:Buy: Dominating a new market; persistent leader in HBM, 11 February), Hynixwillmaintain its leadership in HBM4 until next year. CustomerspreferHynix’s collaborationwith foundry leader TSMC (2330 TT, TWD1,030, Buy) in base die manufacturing andchip-on-wafer on-silicon (CoWoS) packaging (2.5D),which weexpect tocreate strongsynergies. Hynix will use12nm tech for commodity HBM logic dies andbelow3nm for itscustomised HBM dies, while ASICcustomers prefer to work with HBM leader. Hankil Chang*Associate, Korea Technology ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buywith new TP of KRW360k (from KRW340k):Factoring in strongerDRAM shipment and blended ASP, we raise our OP estimates by 5%/5%/6% for2025/26/27, respectively. Wemaintainour target PBmultipleof 2.0x and apply this toour new 2025e/26e average BVPS to derive our new TP of KRW360k. Our 2025 OPestimate is 7% higher than consensus based on higher memory price assumptions. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:SK Hynix Source: Company data, HSBC estimates. Note: HBM sales portion are calculated asa percentage of total DRAM sales. Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates and historical data. Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the