美国银行业2026年第二季度预览：摩根大通、富国、花旗、高盛、摩根士丹利、纽约梅隆、道富、北方信托

2Q26Preview:JPM, WFC, C, GS, MS, BK,STT, NTRS Price Objective Change 07 July 2026 Markets momentum, resilient economy to drive EPS beatsWe see potential forall eight banks—JPM, C, WFC, GS, MS, BNY, STT, NTRS—to top BofA/consensus EPS expectations, with potential for positive revisions 2H26/FY27.While the Street tends to look past trading/investment banking beats (often not run-rated by analysts), potential for positive (ex. markets) net interest income revisions (weexpect at JPM, C, Trust banks) and stronger wealth management flows (MS, NTRS) likelyget rewarded despite a high bar. BofA research:US Banks: Mid-year check-In/Readingthe Tea Leaves: Lessons Learned: EPS Momentum > Valuation EquityUnited StatesBanks Ebrahim H. PoonawalaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 0490ebrahim.poonawala@bofa.com Brandon BermanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3933brandon.berman@bofa.com See Exhibits22-29 for tear sheets with latest management updates; Exhibits1-21 for EPS changes, PO revisions (roll forward to 2027 P/E and mid-2027P/TBV). Gabriel AngeliniResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3081gabriel.angelini@bofa.com JPMorgan (JPM): over-earning…but for how long?We seethe stock as offering the most asymmetric risk/reward, trading at 13.6x 2027 P/E vs. 11-12x for large-cap banks and 20x S&P 500. Set-up: JPM has been a fundingshort (or source of funds) for money center/large-cap regional longs. Michael CamposResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3912michael.c.campos@bofa.com Investors worry about management’s cautious messaging on EPS growth“right nowwe're over-earning”and vocal pushback to proposed changes to regulatory capital asclouding the strong underlying business momentum, the potential for stronger growthand upside on operating leverage underpinned by the unmatched scale of franchiseinvestments. Revise 2Qe EPS to $5.59 from $5.48 on stronger capital markets revenuegrowth. BofA research:JPMorgan: Five More Years (or More)/1Q26 recap: Puzzling Glossary Citigroup (C):potential for pull forward in ROTCE timelineWesee the set-up for continued beat-and-raise quarters given relatively conservative guidance vs. what is a strong operating backdrop. However, at 1.4x YE26e P/TBV thestock is discounting significant ROTCE improvement (we forecast 13% FY28) which maycause investors to seek better entry points for a stock that we see as is in the midst of astructural re-rating relative to peers. While not the same, the set-up reminds us of Wells Fargo shares at the start of the yearwhere a lot of the potential good news was being discounted, leaving limited room for anegative surprise. Unlikely we see a change on CET1 capital target vs. investor day, butStreet will be looking for whether mgmt. lowers this in light of the 30bp reduction inminimum requirement implied by the 2026 stress test results. Revise 2Q26e EPS to$2.65 from $2.60 on stronger capital markets revenue growth. BofA research:Citigroup:Time to Press the Accelerator/1Q26 recap: Top pick thesis reinforced Wells Fargo (WFC),Morgan Stanley (MS); Goldman Sachs(GS); Trust Banks continued on page 2… BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 25 to 28. Analyst Certification on page 22. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 21.12991238 Wells Fargo (WFC): show me the NII While the impact of mgmt’s growth strategy on the P&L is better understood (vs.heading into 1Q results), Street will need to regain confidence that Wells can deliversuperior growth while also not materially deviating from mgmt’s 17-18% ROTCE target(we forecast 17% FY28). At 10.9x 2027 P/E, stock screens as the cheapest among theGSIBs but is competing with cleaner growth stories (back-book repricing, turnaround,investment-led) across money center peers. Confidence that ex. markets NII of $48bn isachievable/beatable (we see it as unlikely that management raises FY26 guide) is likelyto be key in determining post-2Q stock performance. No change to 2Qe EPS of $1.72.BofA research:Wells Fargo: CFO Mike Santomassimo addresses debate points head-on/1Q26 recap: Seeing is believing Morgan Stanley (MS): wealth momentum, FICC watchedWe are positively biased into the print given the wealth momentum, idiosyncratic growth runway in FICC trading (SLR change, reorg that eliminated funding cost disadvantage vspeers), and a robust Asia franchise where momentum continues to be strong. Investorsfocused on gauging the momentum for the wealth business starting with NNA growth asthe Street looks to handicap the multi-quarter runway unlocked by marquee IPOs andcontinued synergies from the Workplace business (consensus: $87.9bn vs. $59.2bn YoY).Additionally, sustainability of the 30%+ pre-tax margin (consensus 30.5% vs. 30