美国生物技术2026年第二季度业绩预览：Moderna、TG Therapeutics、CRISPR、Agios、Novavax、HCM

2Q26 Earnings Preview: MRNA, TGTX,CRSP, AGIO, NVAX, & HCM Price Objective Change What to expect heading into2Q26 earnings?Thebiotech sector has seen strong performance over the past month, with XBI +21% (vs 07 July 2026 S&P -0.6%). In this backdrop, we expect increased scrutiny will be placed on ongoingdrug launches, especially for companies that have outperformed YTD (MRNA +177.4%,TGTX +85.8%, AGIO +38.1%). Below, we highlight key expectations for many of ourcommercial stage companies heading into 2Q26 results. EquityUnited StatesBiopharmaceuticals Alec W. StranahanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 2109alec.stranahan@bofa.com Exhibit2: BofA estimates vs consensusfor our commercial stage companiesWe highlight where our estimates land vs. consensus for key revenue drivers See a summary of model changesand abbreviationsbeginning onpage 5 >>> MRNA:Shares on a tear, we expect a relatively muted 2QWe expect limited fireworks from the 2Q print given prior revenue guidance (2Q: $50- 100M) and wealth of recent pipeline updates. We will focus on updated 2H catalysttiming (intismeran, flu post-VRBPAC, norovirus, PA), pricing/access updates for approvedvaccine programs in the US/EU, and whether the up to 10% revenue growth with GAAPoperating expense reductions are reiterated. We raise our full-year 2026 and outer yearrevenue estimates and increase PoS for flu to 85% (from 70% prior) and peak USpenetration to 8% (from 7% prior) to reflect the recently positive VRBPAC vote. Theresult of these changes moves our PO to $38 (from $34 prior). While recent updates arebeginning to form a picture of future growth, we see shares as having overshot impliedvalue from upcoming data readouts, with more risk to the downside (see our recentintismeran data preview); reiterate Underperform. See more MRNA commentary and other commercial stage co’s starting page 2 >>> BofA Securities does and seeks to dobusiness with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 13 to 16. Analyst Certification on page 11. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 9.12991032 MRNA: Some open questions need to be answered by dataMRNA’s print should again center on whether 2026 can mark a return to growth while cash burn continues to moderate. 1Q revenue of $389M was better than expected andheavily ex-US, but we still think durability depends on respiratory launches, policy clarity,and execution into the 2027 ramp. Cost discipline is equally important, as our recentmanagement work suggested the path to breakeven is better supported but stilldependent on respiratory stabilization and spending restraint (see takeaways from ourMRNA group meeting). Pipeline potential comes into focus, intismeran remains key driver Science Day added breadth across in vivo CAR-T, T-cell engagers, cancer antigentherapies, and Lynch syndrome prevention, but the near-term stock debate remainsintismeran (see our takeaways from the event). We are watching for the interim phase 3adjuvant melanoma readout, where we think an initial RFS HR in the 0.6 to 0.7 rangewith supportive DMFS would be viewed constructively, while a cleaner result closer tophase 2b would increase confidence in RCC, NSCLC and bladder read-through. mFlusivaregulatory progress, including the Aug. 5 PDUFA, is also important, although we see ahigher probability of approval following the favorable VRBPAC. Norovirus and PA dataremain additional 2026 catalysts, but we think shares still need evidence that oncologycan scale and respiratory can stabilize before investors underwrite the broader platform. TGTX: Slowing IV uptake, but guide still looks beatableTGTX’s print should again center on whether Briumvi can keep outpacing already-raised expectations, with 2Q focus on U.S. revenue versus the company’s $220M framing andour $229M total Briumvi estimate. After 1Q total Briumvi revenue of $201.3M andraised FY26 guidance of ~$925M total global revenue, including $885M to $900M U.S.Briumvi revenue, we think another solid quarter likely offers reassurance on commercialexecution. That said, go-forward OpEx will matter, especially after 1Q showedmeaningful sequential increases in R&D and SG&A. We continue to see guidance aslikely conservative, with recent share run already contemplating meaningful value fromthe subq opportunity. Subq helps, competition still frames debate The latest subq Briumvi update supports the Phase 3 path and raises confidence thatquarterly dosing could be feasible, but we still think the key question is whether it candefend the franchise against convenience-based competition. Topline Phase 3 subq dataare expected YE26 or early-2027, with focus on exposure, B-cell depletion, injectiontolerability, and whether autoinjector bridging can suppo