迅达集团2026年第二季度预览：管理日推迟，有机营收或回升

Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Nicholas Witting+44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales SCHP.SW 310.00 CHF James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Schindler Q2'26 preview: CMD delayed, organic revenue pick-upas well? Schindler shares have been under a dark cloud this year, down -11% ytd vs +8% for the SXNP(faring better still than Kone,-19%). Its underperformance against the sector can partly beexplained by the postponement of their June CMD to November, delaying a core catalyst inwhich the pathway to higher mid-term margin ambitions are likely to be laid out. Schindler hascapitalized on the weakness in its shares, extending its ongoing CHF 500m buyback by CHF200m (c.1% of mkt cap). In the near-term we see a delayed recovery in organic sales growthas well for Q2, with a pick-up in H2 likely needed to deliver the current upper end of the FYguide of LSD/MSD. (Schindler is due to report on 21stJuly). Downside risk to consensus sales growth for Q2 and FY26?The twin drags of selectivityin China (new installations, NI) and US (service) are contributing to a growth inertia. We expectlimited sequential acceleration in LFL growth from the 1.7% in Q1. The NI backdrop in Chinacontinues to be challenged, and Schindler’s idiosyncratic NI and service selectivity and freshregional management team could continue to weigh on performance, though we understandthe growth delta to the market should narrow (especially in H2). Another quarter of LSDLFL growth sets a HSD growth bar for H2 to reach the upper end of guidance for the fullyear (MSD), and we expect the uncomfortable back-end loaded growth needed will depresssentiment. Margin expectations more benign.Schindler historically delivers a +30-40bps sequential(Q1 → Q2) margin improvement, and we land at the upper end of that range, modeling a13.6% adj. EBIT margin for Q2’26 (+40bps qoq, +10bps yoy). Price / cost dynamics shouldbe improving, as US price increases following tariffs in Q2’25 can start flowing throughthe NI P&L, while maintenance and repair pricing is supportive. Fuel costs are better thanexpected (prior FY26e CHF 150m), and raw material costs are bounded at CHF 25m forthe full-year, weighted to Q2 vs Q1. Mix is deteriorating given strength in modernisation andsome recovery in NI, while service unit development is weaker under US & China service baseselectivity. We view consensus at 13.8% FY26 adj. EBIT may also still be too aggressive, andsee scope for small negative revisions on margins. Investment Implications DETAILS Investment Implications We tune down FY26 LFL growth to 2.6% (old 3.3%, VA cons 3.3%), and land between 70-100bps below VA consensus forQ2’26 through Q4’26 (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 2), and as a result move down our margin expectations fractionally (FY26E 13.7%,-10bps vs old and vs cons). We expect this dark cloud weighing investor sentiment to persist, at least through H2 and until theNov 19thCMD, and reiterate Schindler Market-Perform with a price target of CHF310. EXHIBIT 2:... is weighed strongly by the (principally China) NI drag, positioning us below consensus. RELEVANT RESEARCH Company Model | SCHP.SW / Schindler 16 Jun 2026 - European Construction Indicators & PMI: PMIs getting progressively worse while activity indicators remain strongfor France and Germany27 Apr 2026 - Schindler: Wait and see till CMD23 Apr 2026 - Schindler Q1'26: Orders outshine revenues on growth, Mod momentum starts to pick up19 Mar 2026 - European Capital Goods: Risks and opportunities for two war scenarios11 Feb 2026 - Schindler Q4'25: Orders in hand imply steep road ahead7 Jan 2026 - EU Capital Goods: 2026 Outlook - Red pill or blue pill; investing for an AI boom or an AI bubble5 Dec 2025 - Schindler: Modernisation momentum meets near-term constraints VALUATION EXHIBIT 4:Schindler is trading on par with Kone on an EV / NTM EBIT basis, both at c.16.5x. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of