达美航空2026年第二季度预览：季度进展顺利，或对2026/2027财年每股收益带来上行

U.S. AirlinesDelta Air Lines Inc RatingOutperform 93.00 USD(88.00OLD) Delta Air Lines (DAL) 2Q:26 Preview - Quarter on track, see upsideto FY26/FY27 EPS We are bringing our model current for fuel, steady demand, and modest capacity reductions in3Q...it all hinges on fuel, but if we are on the way down, expect Delta to do better than current Close Date16 Jun 2026DAL Close Price (USD)83.14Price Target (USD)93.00Upside/(Downside)12%52-Week Range87.39/45.28SPX7,511.35FYEDecDiv Yield0.9%Market Cap (USD) (M)54,623EV (USD) (M)69,869 Expecting a 2% or better beat in 2Q. Demand has been steady, and we don’t believe anyconsumer-driven weakness has shown up in numbers. We are expecting unit revenue to beup 12.2% YoY in the June quarter (at cons.). Completion factor trending better, which shouldhelp on cost, but that could be because Delta is paying for it and we would expect CASMxto come in up 6.5% YoY, in line with prior guidance. Non-op expense in 2Q is estimated at$200M, a little higher than our current forecast. Fuel should come in $3.90-$4.00 per gallon Taking our 3Q estimate up 5%, in line with consensus, but at a lower level of ASMs.Delta is taking in the near term schedule, which helps given modest declines in marketvolumes and cost pressures from pilot staffing. Street is too high on ASMs for 3Q, and the1.7% expected growth should be closer to flat based on schedule data. Despite being toohigh on capacity, and through a unit cost headwind, we are expecting 3Q to come in where Raising our price target to $93 holding our EV/EBITDAR multiple constant. Remainssubject to fuel volatility, but in an expensive market the earnings growth outlook that shouldfollow further normalization of oil prices remains attractively priced. Investment ImplicationsMaintain Outperform, raise price target to $93. VALUATION COMPS TABLE We reach our one-year price target of $93 (previously $88) by capitalizing our NTM+1 EBITDAR estimate of $11.852B(previously $11.573B) at a multiple of 6.5x (unchanged) and deducting the value of net debt one year from now. Our $93 pricetarget equates to 10.4x (previously 9.9x) our NTM + 1 EPS estimate of $8.98 (previously $8.90). DETAILS APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective VALUATION METHODOLOGY Delta Air Lines Inc We reach our one-year price target of $93 by capitalizing our NTM+1 EBITDAR estimate of $11.852B at a multiple of 6.5x anddeducting the value of net debt one year from now. Our $93 price target equates to 10.4x our NTM + 1 EPS estimate of $8.98. RISKS Delta Air Lines Inc Downside risks to our target price for DAL include: a material slowdown in the global or US economy, unfavorable changesin government regulation of the provision or marketing of air transportation service, weaker than expected air travel demand,stronger than expected capacity growth in the marketplace, intensified competition among carriers, upward volatility in fuel prices, RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japanese The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp •Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporar