亚洲半导体、设备及全球存储器行业研究：台积电2026年第二季度营收指引微超预期

Asia Semiconductors and Equipment & Global Memory Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Rating Outperform Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Price Target TSMC: 2Q26 monthly revenue tracking slightly ahead of guidance This afternoon TSMC reported May revenue at NT$417B, up 1.5% MoM and 30% YoY.The revenue from April & May added up to NT$828B, representing 66% of TSMC's 2Q26guidance mid-point & in the middle of the past range of 60-72% (Exhibit 2). Should Junefollow seasonality, 2Q26 revenue would be slightly above the guidance mid-point and in line Good AI demand visibility (report, model).With strong AI demand, encouragingeconomies & rising CSP capex, not long ago we moved up our capex projection to US$56Bthis year & US$68B in 2027. We then also raised our global CoWoS shipment forecast to1.2M, 2.2M, and 2.8M wafers in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. While TSMC shouldremain the dominant supplier, we expect Amkor and ASE (both not covered) will contributesome too. We now forecast TSMC revenue growth of 35% this year and a 24% CAGR over Leading edge leadership remains intact despite progress of Intel and Samsung.IntelFoundry may gain traction by winning some small orders from Apple, but we believe that’smore on geopolitical reasons. The revenue impact on TSMC should be minimal, as TSMC’sgrowth is primarily constrained by capacity rather than demand. While Samsung Foundry is The stock now is trading at 22x forward P/E, or at 20% discount vs. SOX. With robust growthfrom data center AI now & optionality from edge AI later, we still believe TSMC is the mosttrustworthy AI compounder. ReiterateOutperformwith price target of NT$2,780. EXHIBIT 2:The NT$ revenue of April + May vs. 2Q26revenue guidance mid-point came in the middle of the EXHIBIT 1:Should June follow seasonality, 2Q26 revenuewould be 0.7% above the guidance midpoint and in line INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate TSMCOutperform. Price target isNT$2,780.00. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd We set a NT$2,780 1-year target price using a P/E multiple of 20x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of NT$139. Wederive our PT for secondary ticker (TSM.US) by dividing the primary PT by FX and arrive at US$430. RISKS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Downside risks are: (1) Market-wide multiple contraction. (2) Intel regains and keeps technology superiority. (3) Geopoliticaluncertainties RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp •Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp •Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish researc