MediaTek 2026年第二季度营收超预期，高端及一致预期表现良好

MediaTekInc Rating edward.hou@bernsteinsg.comYipin Cai, CFA OutperformPrice Target yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com ?2454.TT consensus 2Q26revenueamountedtoNT$152B,up2%QoQand1%YoY.Thisis c.5%aboveconsensus and c.2% above guidance high-end.FXis likely to present a 1.3%tailwind andthus cannot fully explain the beat (Exhibit 1). 2026-28,respectively.However,recent checks suggesta morefavorable competitiveenvironment. Together with the expanding deployment of TPU, this suggests there is anupsiderisk to our current 2028projection.Wealsocontinueto seesigns ofdeepeningcollaborationbetweenMediaTek and Google,which should supporta growing share ofwalletovertime. pressure.ASP has climbed notably higherYoY dueto OEMs price hikes and the reducedofferingofentry-levelmodels.Thathoweverisleadingdemanddestruction&elevatedhandset inventory that OEMs may struggle to sell. Moreover, MediaTek along with otherICdesigncompanies inTaiwanhasbeenreported(link)toraisepricesacrossmultipleproductlines,including smartphone SoC andPMiC,by10-15%on component shortages,capacityconstraints,and rising raw material and logistics costs. While these pricing actions shouldhelp offset cost inflation and supportmargins,we expectfurtherpressure on end-marketdemand in 2H26 and potentially into 2027.That said, we believe growth driven by TPU ismore than sufficient to offsetthe weakness of the smartphone business. MediaTek's share pricehas corrected c.15%from its late-May peak, likely reflecting recentsentimentchange&profit-takingpostthestrongYTDrally.WeencourageinvestorstofocusontheAIASICgrowthandreiterateOutperformonMediaTek. above guidance mid-point and consensus.FX likelypresented a 1.3pts tailwind. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE References to"Bernstein"or the"Firm"in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Africa Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplacebetween BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise,for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's"affiliates"”relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. RISKS ThereareanumberofdownsideriskstoourMediaTekpricetarget:(1)StrongercompetitivepressurefromQualcommin5Gmarket(2)Slower5G adoption increase,especially in China (3) Weaker smartphonedemandglobally (4)Slower diversification beyondsmartphone (5) Downcycle inthebroadsemiconductormarket RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASiAX)for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand hasthree categories of ratings: :Outperform:Stockwilloutpacethemarket indexbymorethan15pp :Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp :Underperform:Stock will trail the performance of themarket indexbymorethan15pp Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorsoneventsanddevelopments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are notunder coverage. Bernstein brand stock ratings are based on a 12-month time horizon. TheAutonomous brand rates commonstocksas indicated below.As ourbenchmarks weusethe Bloomberg Europe 6oo (EDMFi)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope6OOInsurancePriceReturnIndex(E6OOIN)forEuropeaninsurers,theS&P5OOandS&PFinancialsforUSbanksandPaymentscoverage,S5LIFEforUSInsurance,theS&PInsurance Select Industry (SPSliNS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials LargeMid and Small CapPrice Return Index(EMLSF)for emerging marketbanks and insurers and Payments.Ratings are stated relativeto the sector (not the market). oneventsanddevelopments. Not Covered (NC)denotes companies that are not under coverage. Autonomous brandcommon stock ratings are based on a 12-month timehorizon. Autonomousbrand-preferredstocks The Autonomous brand has three ca