埃克森美孚(XOM.US)2026年第二季度预览：炼油与化工利润支撑

USA | Integrated OilExxonMobil Equity ResearchJuly 10, 2026 2Q26 Preview - Refining & Chemicals MarginsSupportive XOM's 8-K guidance for 2Q26 was headlined by strong downstream marginsdriving Adj Net Income to ~$13.0-16.2bn (midpoint: ~$14.6bn), which impliesAdj EPS of ~$3.53. The EPS midpoint is slightly below our prerelease estimatesand Cons prior to the release, but within the provided range. We update our AdjEPS to ~$3.59. At results, we look for commentary o:(1)Downstream Macro(Refining & Chemicals),(2)Golden Pass Ramp,(3)Guyana,(4)Trading. What's the Headline?XOM's 8-K guidance for 2Q26 was headlined by surging downstream margins(+$3.3-4.1bn QoQ) driving Adjusted Net Income excl Identified Items to ~$13.0-16.2bn with amidpoint of ~$14.6bn. Notably, XOM changed its reporting methodology to exclude timing effectsfrom adjusted earnings to minimize noise, but we note a significant ~$1.9-3.3bn tailwind in thequarter. The Adjusted Net Income guidance translates to an Adj EPS range of ~$3.15-3.92 with amidpoint of ~$3.53, largely in line with prerelease JEFe Adj EPS of ~$3.65 and Cons prior to therelease of ~$3.82. We now expect Adj EPS of ~$3.59, largely in line with our pre-8-K estimates andslightly above the midpoint of the 8-K due to stronger downstream earnings. Upstream. The 8-K puts XOM's Upstream Adjusted Net Income at ~$8.5-9.7bn (~$9.1bn midpoint),and we sit at ~$9.1bn. As expected, XOM benefited from surging oil prices with a ~$3.5-3.9bn QoQimprovement in earnings; however, the earnings impact from gas prices was less material at +/- ~$0.2bn tied to lower HH pricing and XOM's LNG is primarily on LT oil-linked contracts. XOM expectsa ~$0.8-0.6bn loss tied to lower volumes from the Middle East conflict. We forecast productionof ~4.35mmboepd, as significant Qatari and other Middle Eastern volumes remain impacted fromthe conflict, but note volumes impacted by Storm Fern and disruptions in Kazakhstan will return.Timing effects are expected at +/- ~$0.3bn QoQ compared to a ~$528mn impact in 1Q26. Downstream. For Energy Products, XOM's 8-K puts Adjusted Net Income at a ~$4.0-4.8bn (~$4.4bnmidpoint) with JEFe at ~$4.6bn. The EP guidance includes higher margins at ~$2.0-2.4bn QoQ,which was expected given the tight refined product fundamentals. The segment benefits fromtiming effects of ~$2.2-3.0bn as prices moderated by the end of the quarter and compares to a$3.4bn timing effect loss in 1Q26. The conflict in the Middle East continues to pose a headwind witha loss of ~$0.4-0.2bn and an additional ~$0.3-01bn loss tied to other expenses from the conflict(e.g., hedging / physical disruption). In addition, XOM noted ~$1.0-0.8bn impairment. Chemicalsadjusted earnings are expected at ~$0.9-1.5bn ($1.2bn midpoint), tied to stronger margins, and wesit at ~$1.3bn. Similarly, for Specialty Products, XOM guides to ~$0.6-1.2bn (~$0.9bn midpoint),also tied to stronger margins, and we expect earnings at ~$0.9bn. Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com Emma Schwartz * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 336-7254 | emma.schwartz@jefferies.com John Edelman * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7412 | jedelman@jefferies.com Rahul Kakkar * | Equity Analyst+1 (713) 308-4508 | rkakkar@jefferies.com Sam Burwell, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2114 | sburwell@jefferies.com Spencer Duryee, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 444-4143 | sduryee@jefferies.com The Long View: ExxonMobil Investment Thesis •Will index weightings in energy need to move higher in the next cycle? Seeour initiation report. If so, we see XOM as especially well-positioned to bethe generalist proxy.•While trading at a premium to peers on most metrics, XOM's returns,growth, balance sheet, and liquidity (important) warrant it, in our view.•Cash flow growth guidance is achievable, driven by cost reduction andportfolio high-grading, even in the backwardated commodity environmentand lower-than-consensus downstream earnings•Energy transition strategy credible given XOM's scale and downstreamexposure. Downside Scenario,$134, -3% Upside Scenario,$240, +75% Base Case,$184, +34% •The market prices in WTI oil of $65/bbl and $4/mmbtu HH gas to value the equity.•Long-term US refining margins of $16.3/bbl,European at $12.3/bbl, and Singapore at $5.6bl •The market prices in a WTI oil price of $50/bbl and Henry Hub of $3.5/mmbtu to value theequity.•Lower US and International refining margins (-$1/bbl from Base Case) •The market prices in a WTI oil price of $80/bbl and Henry Hub of $4.5/mmbtu to value theequity.•Higher US and International refining margins (+$1/bbl from Base Case) Sustainability Matters Catalysts •Execution on PXD synergies and improvedresource recovery in the Permian•Structural reductions in operating costs•Additional asset sales to streamline portfolio•Execution on upstream projects in Guyana,Permian, and Brazil•Further exploration success in Guyana•Improvements in US policy support for CCS•Successful deployment of