固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, secondary PKX/DAESEC/HANFGI/NHSECS widened 2-4bpsahead of new DAEINT/DAESEC/NHSECSUSD issuance. The recent newissues TENCNT 36/46 widened 1bp. NWDEVL 6.25 Perp edged 0.7pt higher.SOFTBK 28 gained 0.4pt. EHICAR 26/LNGFOR 29 lost 0.3-0.4pt. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk CHEDUC:We view the valuation of the new CHEDUC 29 as unattractive.The new CHEDUC 29 widened5bps from RO at T+190 this morning. See Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China economy:Demand side further deteriorated. CMBI views May’s datapointed to a more pronounced K-shaped economy, with export-and AI-linkedproduction still cushioning growth while domestic demand weakened further. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,the new WLISRC 7.875 06/23/36 was 0.5pt lower from RO at99.493. See our commentsyesterday. The new KORGAS 29-31s widened3-4bps from ROs. The new HYNMTR 28-29s tightened 2-3bps from T+55and T+70, respectively,while HYNMTR 31-33s closed around RO levels. Thenew MITCO 31s tightened 5bps from RO at T+47, while MITCO 36s leakedto 1bpwider. In the secondary IG space, Taiwanese lifers closed unchangedto 2bps wider amid better selling in CATLIF 39-41s. We saw balanced two-wayflows in HAOHUA 27-28s and light better selling in front-endTENCNT/TAISEM/MEITUA.Theyclosed 2bps tighter to 1bp wider.ZHOSHK 28 was down 0.1pt. In HK, NDPAPE 14 Perp lost 0.5pt. NineDragonsPaper obtained a three-year syndicated loan of RMB2bn(cUSD295.4mn), and commenced tender offer for USD400mn NDPAPE 14Perp at 107. LASUDE 26 edged 0.2pt higher. See our comments on Lai Sun Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P(-0.57%), Dow (+0.64%) and Nasdaq (-1.15%) were mixedonTuesday.UST yield were lower onTuesday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 4.05%/4.16%/4.43%/4.93%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 CHEDUC:We view the valuation of the newCHEDUC 29 asunattractive Yesterday,China Education Group (CEG,-/BBB/-) priced its 3yr USD senior unsecured bond (-/BBB/-) atT+190bps (6.008% yield), tightened 30bps from IPT at T+220bps. The issue size is USD200mn on an orderbook of over USD800mn.Taking cues of the valuations of Chinese BBB-rated peers with similar tenor, i.e.CNMDHL 30 (-/BBB/-, YTW 5.2%), we view the newCHEDUC 5.625 06/24/29at 6.0% yield as unattractive ona risk-adjusted basis, considering its weaker trading liquidity due to smaller issue size, and it is more vulnerableto shift in policy direction. Within theChinese BBB-rated universe, we like ZHOSHK 28 (-/BBB-/-, YTW of 8.4%) Proceeds from the new issue will be used to repay offshore debts, fund capex and working capital.Under thebond terms, change of control put at 101 applies. CEG may redeem all of the bonds at any time on or after 24 As per CEG, it is the largest listed private higher education group in China in terms of revenue, EBITDA andstudent enrolment. CEG focuses on private higher education and secondary vocational education, operatingschools across 8 provinces and/or municipalities in China (such as Guangdong, Shandong, Henan andSichuan), as well as in Australia and the UK. The operating environment for segments CEG is focusing isrelatively more favorable than that of pre-school/compulsory education and after-school tutoring which are In FY25, CEG’s revenue increased by 11.9% yoy to RMB7.4bn, comprising of 89% from higher education, 7%from secondary vocational education and 4% from international education.Its adj. EBITDA increased 10.5%yoy to RMB4.2bn at a margin of 56.6%. The ASP per full-time student rose 4.4% yoy to RMB26.1k fromRMB24.4k in FY24.During FY25, CEG generated operating cash flow of RMB3.9bn, more than sufficient to China economy:Demand side further deteriorated May’s data pointed to a more pronounced K-shaped economy, with export-and AI-linked production stillcushioning growth while domestic demand weakened further. Industrial production picked up modestlysupported by export-delivered value and output in AI hardware. Retail sales retreated showing the first declinesince Covid, while property sales and FAI contracted further. CPI came in below expectations, mainly driven byenergy rather than demand-led pricing power, as core CPI softened. Credit growth also remained weak, as TSFgrowth slowed to a record low and new RMB lending was mainly supported by bill financing, while householdand medium-to long-term corporate loans contracted. Looking ahead, policy support is likely to remain Property downturn deepened despite earlier signs of stabilization.New home sales fell by 13.1% in and9.5% in value terms,both worse than April. Construction activity remained deeply depressed, with new startsdown 24.6% in May, completions fell 19.9% and developer funding faded 21.5%, suggesting weak sales arestill feeding back into developer cash flow and construction decisions. Home-price data also deteriorated, withnew and existing home price