资金流动观察

The Wealth Up Biz & a World Cup Quiz 05 June 2026 Scores on the Doors: oil 60.7%, ACWI 14.6%, SPX 11.0%, gold 3.2%, HY bonds 1.8%,cash 1.5%, US$ 0.9%, IG bonds 0.7%, govt bonds -0.4%, bitcoin -18.4% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“I got guys making $200mn over the next four or five years. I'm constantlytelling them that's not a lot of money based upon where you’re starting,”Rich Paul, 2026. Zeitgeist:“Central bankers around the world…seem more comfortable with inflationcloser to 3% than I wish were the case. That’s very dangerous stuff. We can have aneconomic boom in that scenario, but there’ll be a high price to pay,”Kevin Warsh, 2024. Tale of the Tape: soaring stocks, soaring wealth...US household equity wealth up $6tnYTD (Chart 4–calculated via BofA private client equity holdings), follows $10tn gain in'25, $9tn gain in '24; K-shape economy (and cyclicals) booming due to wealth-equity“boom loop”, inflation flaring due to“wealth-price spiral”; not all consumers createdequal, but voters are, and Trump inflation approval now below Biden lows. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com The Price is Right: 46 out of 68 global central banks currently overshooting theirinflation target and/or midpoint of their inflation target range (Table 1); central banksbehind the curve...why yield curves bear flattening as CB hikes priced-in, why long-duration (XBT), leverage (private credit), EM FX (Indonesia rupiah, India rupee recordlows, Korea won close to GFC & Asia crisis lows–Charts 5 & 6) all struggling. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: outside shot next week US unemployment rate (consensus 4.3%)equals/falls below inflation rate (CPI consensus 4.2%) for just 7thtime since 1960; yearswhen inflation running close to or above unemployment rate (e.g., '66, '73, '90, '00, '08,'21), years of Fed hikes, and none remembered well on Wall St (Chart 2); note U-rateminus CPI has strong correlation with US yield curve, and points to inversion (Chart 3). Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com US unemployment rate minus US headline CPI YoY % Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 17 to 19.12981561 Timestamp: 05 June 2026 12:26AM EDT The World Cup Quiz:7 days to go before FIFA World Cup 2026 begins, the biggesttournament of the world’s most popular sport; call it soccer, call it football, it’s got 5billion fans worldwide; in’26 the World Cup is hosted by the United States, Canada andMexico and with 48 teams, 104 matches across 16 host cities, and expected attendanceof 6.5 million people; the tournament is set to be the biggest global sporting event everstaged; read ourBofA 2026 World Cup Guidefor its surprisingly big macro, market, andAI impacts, but before then, test how well you know“the beautiful game”ahead of theThursday, June 11thkickoff at the Azteca stadium with our World Cup Quiz on page 6. Weekly Flows: $122bn to cash, $39.0bn to bonds (record inflow), $23.1bn to stocks,$2.0bn from crypto (biggest since Nov’25), $3.1bn from gold (biggest in 10 weeks). Flows to Know: •IG bonds: $20.1bn inflow, 2ndbiggest on record (Chart 10),•HY bonds: $3.2bn inflow, biggest since May’25,•EM debt: $6.3bn inflow, biggest in 6 weeks,•Bank loans: $0.2bn outflow, first in 10 weeks,•US small cap: $1.6bn inflow, biggest since Mar’26,•US growth: $13.1bn outflow, biggest since Dec’25,•Consumer: $1.7bn outflow, biggest since Dec’24,•Utilities: $0.8bn inflow, biggest since Mar’26. BofA Private Clients: $4.6tn AUM…66.1% stocks (record high), 17.2% bonds (lowestsince Mar’22), 9.6% cash (record high); largest weekly inflow to cash YTD but privateclient bid for stocks still strong...equity ETF share count up 0.2% past week, 0.7% MTD,4.8% YTD; in ETFs past 4