资金流动观察：繁荣循环

The Boom Loop 30 April 2026 Scores on the Doors: oil 83.9%, commodities 62.4%, ACWI 9.7%, gold 6.9%, SPX 5.3%,HY 1.2%, cash 1.2%, IG 0.1%, US$ -0.2%, govt bonds -0.4%, bitcoin -12.8% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal The Biggest Picture: US nominal GDP in midst of 75% boom in 7 years ($20tn in‘20to $35tn in‘27 - Chart 2); inflation up from ~2% in 2010s to ~4% in 2020s (growth from2½% to 2¾%); stocks & commodities love nominal booms (long the Cs...commods, chips,consumer, China–Stocksmaxxingreport), bonds (steeper curve) & US dollar not somuch. Tale of the Tape:“boom loop”as policymakers counter deglobalization, populism,inequality (Chart 8) with max govt spending (up 60% since 2020 and set to rise 15% inproposed FY27 budget), play geopolitics via inflationary trade, industrial, and financialmarket policies to monopolize supply of chips, oil, rare earths, minerals needed to win AIwar (Chart 5 & 9); only thing that breaks 2020s boom loop is bond collapse. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right: 5% the “Maginot Line” for 30-year Treasury (Chart 3); we say itholds...US admin on maneuvers to maintain UST bid (FX supports for Asia/Middle Eastowners of $3.8tn USTs) and must reverse“deflation”of Trump inflation approval (Chart4 - now just 29% vs. Biden low of 28%); but should 5% Maginot Line break badly(booms/bubbles always end withsharp jump in yields…JGBs +230bps in’89, USTs+260bps in '99, China +150bps in '07), then the door to doom starts to open. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Chart2:TheBoomLoopUS nominal GDP in midst of unprecedented 75% surge from 2020 to 2027 Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investmentstrategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 13.12967688 Timestamp: 30 April 2026 10:21PM EDT Weekly Flows: $23.0bn to stocks, $19.9bn to bonds, $0.2bn from crypto, $1.2bn fromgold, $29.5bn from cash. Flows to Know: •Gold: $1.2bn outflow, first outflow in 6 weeks,•IG bonds: $8.8bn inflow, biggest in 8 weeks,•EM debt: $3.6bn inflow, 3rdweek of inflows,•Japan equities: $6.7bn inflow, biggest since May’13,•US equities: $19.3bn inflow, 5thweek of inflows,•China equities: $11.3bn outflow, biggest since Jan’26,•Tech: $3.0bn inflow (note semiconductor ETF AUM just topped $100bn–Chart 6),•Utilities: $0.6bn outflow, biggest since Jan'26. BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…65.1% stocks (highest since Dec’21), 17.6% bonds,10.0% cash (lowest since Sep’18); largest inflow to bonds in 12 weeks; GWIM increasingETF equity exposure in '26 (share count +4.2% YTD, +1.2% MTD); past 4 weeks GWIMbuying energy, high dividend, industrials ETFs, selling utilities, financials, staples ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: starting to rise again, up to 6.6 from 6.3, on tighter globalHY & AT1 bond spreads, inflows to tech, HY and EM debt, more bullish gold/VIXpositioning, which offset“less overbought”global equity indices (BofA Global BreadthRule: down to 43% from recent 77% high on April 20th); note "old" BofA Bull & BearIndicator down to 4.8 from 5.0.1 The Buys & Sells of May: oil (USO), semiconductors (SMH), Taiwan (EWT), tech (XLK),AI (BAI), all vulnerably overbought relative to 50dma & 200dma; most vulnerablyoversold...China tech (KWEB), global defense (SHLD), healthcare (XLV), bonds (ZROZ), allbounce on good news; US ISM manufacturing index best cyclical indicator, set to surgefrom 53 toward 60...within cyclicals China, Europe, SPW, materials are better Maylaggard longs to play stronger ISM...Japan, Korea, EM ex. China, semis have more thandiscounted the move (Chart 7 & Table 1). Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Source:BofA Global Investmen