资金流动观察与利益阵痛

The Gravy Pain Scores on theDoors: oil 64.7%, gold 7.0%, global stocks 1.2%, US$ 0.9%, cash 0.8%,govt bonds -0.8%, HY bonds -0.8%, IG -0.9%, US stocks -3.5%, bitcoin -19.9% YTD. Zeitgeist:“Markets stop panicking, when policy makers start panicking.” The Biggest Picture: big events, new asset leadership…’71 end of Bretton Woods =gold bull,’81 Volcker shock = bond bull,’89 fall of Berlin Wall = US stock bull, 9/11 =BRICS bull, GFC in '08 = private equity bull; COVID in’20…fiscal excess (Chart 4), end of“Japanification,”start of inflationary“LatAmification”(populism, indebtedness, boom-bust) = bond & China bears, and gold & Mag7 bulls (Charts 2 & 11). The Price is Right: H2’2020s themes (Chart 3)…1. commodity bull broadens from goldto metals & energy…Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, Taiwan geopolitics say who owns chips,rare earths, minerals, oil supply wins AI war; 2. international & US mid-capmanufacturing over leveraged US stocks (vulnerable to 2ndwave inflation, and AIconcentration if railroads analog is wrong–Charts 5 & 6) to trade reshoring, defense,infrastructure needs; 3. contrarian consumer stocks (already priced for stagflation), aspopulist socialism (Chart 8) more aggressively placates lower-income electorate. Tale of the Tape: Trump economic approval at new lows (Chart 7 = Trump elected toend war & end inflation) = big incentive for US to de-escalate…sell US dollar DXY above100, buy UST30 @ 5%, buy SPX below 6600; no new summer highs (except in bondyields) if end of war = no bounce in approval, and credit markets (shadow banking) &labor markets (AI) cause Gen QE & Gen Z to pause their bid. More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and thefinancial Weekly Flows: $62.2bn to stocks, $23.5bn to cash, $10.2bn to bonds, $1.0bn to crypto,$4.5bn from gold. Flows to Know: •Gold: $4.5bn outflow, biggest since Oct’25 (Chart 12); •HY bonds: $5.2bn outflow, biggest since Apr’25 (Chart 13); •US equities: $47.1bn inflow, biggest since Dec’25 (incl. $40.2bn to SCHD, VOO, andSPYM); •Energy: $1.1bn inflow, 17thweek of inflows; •Materials: $6.0bn outflow, biggest since Oct'25, $56.1bn inflow YTD; •Financials: $0.4bn outflow, with $0.5bn outflow YTD; •Tech: $1.7bn inflow, $25.1bn inflow YTD (on track for record–Chart 14). (highest since Jun'25), 10.7% cash; private clients buying equity dips…7thconsecutiveweek of GWIM inflows to equity ETFs and ETF share count up 2% YTD; in past 4 weeks,private clients buying TIPS, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and selling preciousmetals, utilities, industrials. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: down to 8.4 from 8.5 on outflows from HY bonds & EMdebt, weakening credit markets (wider HY & AT1 bond spreads), deteriorating global stock index breadth; Bull & Bear Indicator below 8 would end the contrarian “sell signal”triggered in mid-Dec); old1BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 6.4 from 6.2. BofA positioning metrics do not yet show a capitulation of bull sentiment seen atlows and great entry points back into stocks/credit; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator notclose to 2, BofA FMS cash level not yet at 5%, big YTD equity inflows (on track for global equity indices trading below 50-day and 200-day moving averages…S&P500is there, but global markets need to fall another 3-5% to trigger big“buy”; correction started Oct (Fed cutting at highs, Nvidia $100bn to OpenAI…peakliquidity/AI capex optimism); big corrections end when a. sell-off leaders become so oversold they trough (this is happening in software, bank loans, Bitcoin, Mag7,private credit), b. investors forced to painfully liquidate overbought longs (seeBofA Global Fund Manager Survey…portfolios now de-grossing gold, semis, metals, EM, Europe, banks…), and c. oil & US dollar lose bid ; sequence is playing out but endsonly once markets convinced oil back below $100/bbl for good (exponential surgesin oil always recessionary & consensus forecasts breezy 18% global EPS growth in’26–Charts 9 & 10); but with Trump hitting new lows in terms of approval on economy & rising political costs for a president elected to end war & end inflation(Chart 7), big incentive for US to de-escalate and compress time of conflict…sell US Chart4:Fiscal excessUS government expenditures as % of GDP Chart3:What’s in, what’s outInvestment themes in 2020s BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source:EPFR Asset Class Flows (Table 2) Equities:$62.2bn inflow ($72.6bn inflow to ETFs, $10.8bn outflowfrom mutual funds) Bonds:inflows past 47 weeks ($10.2bn) Precious metals:outflows past 3 weeks ($4.5bn) Fixed IncomeFlows (Chart 15)IG Bondinflows past 47 weeks ($2.6bn) HY Bondoutflows past 4 weeks ($5.2bn)EM Debtoutflows past 2 weeks ($3.3bn)Munisinflows past 11 weeks ($2.7bn)Govt/Tsyinflows past 7 weeks ($12.9bn)TIPSinflows past 7 weeks ($0.6bn)Bank loanoutflows pa