资金流动观察：美联储别让我失望

Fed Don’t Fail Me Now 16 October 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 58.2%, stocks 19.0%, bitcoin 18.6%, IG bonds 10.1%, HYbonds 9.1%, govt bonds 7.2%, cash 3.4%, commods 2.4%, US$ -8.9%, oil -18.8% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“K-shaped economy goes pear-shaped if asset prices drop and hit rich.” Zeitgeist:“Money market yields going to drop at least 100bps next couple of quarters,sodo I buy Treasuries when government owes $38tn, corporate bonds with spreads at20-year lows, stocks trading on a 40x CAPE, or gold that’s just gone vertical? Tricky.” Tale of the Tape: 123 global rate cuts YTD, global stock market cap up $20.8tn, $170bnfor every rate cut! Big rate cuts, frothy animal spirits…number of leveraged equity ETFsup from 470 to 701 YTD (Chart3), and 5x levered single-stock ETFs coming soon. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right: Fed cutting but“Krunchy Kredit”cracks spreading (KIE, KRE followPSP,BDCs lower); Fed will be forced to cut more aggressively if banks (BKX <135),brokers (XBD <950), HY CDX spreads (>400bps) signal deeper deleveraging/liquidation. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Biggest Picture:Oct FMSequity sentiment most bullish since Feb'25 vs. allocationto bonds lowest since Oct'22; contrarians love inflections…FMS (Chart 2) says best long-short trades…bonds>stocks, UK>EM, staples>banks, energy>tech. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Net % BofA Global FMS overweight (% saying overweight - % saying underweight) Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12888134 Timestamp: 16 October 2025 11:49PM EDT Weekly Flows: $28.1bn to stocks, $5.8bn to bonds, $4.5bn to gold, $0.6bn to crypto,$24.6bn from cash. Flows to Know: •Cash: biggest outflow since Jul'25 ($24.6bn);•Gold: $34.2bn inflow past 10 weeks = biggest ever ($4.5bn last week–Chart 7);•IG bonds: 25thweek of inflows ($8.3bn last week);•HY bonds: 1stoutflow since Apr'25 ($3.2bn–Chart 8);•EM debt: 1stoutflow since Apr'25 ($1.7bn);•China equities: biggest inflow since Apr'25 ($13.4bn–Chart 9);•Tech: record weekly inflow ($10.4bn–Chart 10);•Energy: biggest weekly inflow since Jun'25 ($0.7bn). YTD Flows to Know: $548bn inflows to global equity funds YTD, of which US stocksaccount for 46% of global inflows, down from 72% in 2024. BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM of which 64.3% stocks, 18.2% bonds, 10.4% cash;note Magnificent 7 stocks = 16% of total private client AUM, vs International stocks just4% of AUM, US Treasuries 4% of AUM, gold 0.5% of AUM (one reason we remain long“BIG”; note private client flows in H2 show$7.8bn outflow from stocks, $14.6bn inflowto bonds(T-bills inflow this week 4thlargest ever); in ETFs past 4 weeks GWIM buyingmuni bond, IG & HY bond ETFs, selling utilities, growth and consumer staples ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 6.4 as outflows from HY & EM bonds, weakerglobal stock index breadth offset lower FMS cash (Oct = 3.8%) & EM stock inflows. On Bonds: we long the long bond…30-year heading below 4%; bonds“big, fat &trendy”…UST 10-year below 4% to draw capital from bond vigilantes bears, Fed cuttingand following BoC & RBA in ending Quantitative Tightening (Fed balance sheet down$2.3tn since 2022–Chart 4), AI deflationary for labor (US youth U-rate at 9.4%...“AI =UBI = YCC”–see linked8 May The Flow Showreport) & corporate costs (see JB Huntresults); and we say zero-coupon bonds best hedge for credit eve