资金流动观察：后泡沫时代：做多谦逊，做空傲慢

Post-bubble: long humiliation, short hubris 29 May 2026 Scores on the Doors: oil 52.5%, global stocks 13.9%, US stocks 10.5%, gold 3.6%, HYbonds 1.6%, cash 1.5%, US dollar 0.8%, IG 0.5%, govt bonds -0.7%, bitcoin -16.3% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets,”Baron Rothschild. The Price is Right: central banks & bonds to end speculative price action... but nothappening yet... global rate cuts (31) still outpacing hikes (12–Chart 2), real policy ratesin Japan & Korea negative (why Nikkei & Kospi soaring as yen & won collapse), andtraders happy to front-run bubble until new Chair Warshforced to enact tightening offinancial conditions. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: S&P 500 index at new highs but just 21 stocks (4% of SPX) makingnew highs (was just 20 stocks at internet bubble Mar’00 top); EM leadership even morenarrow... 2% of stocks (21 of 1224) currently at all-time highs; back to SPX, 222 stockscurrently trading >20% below their highs, 109 trading >40% below highs... bestperformers next 12 months likely to be unlevered, opportunistic,“diamonds-in-rough.” Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: post-bubble investor roadmap since 1929 is long bonds (10-yearyield down ~50bps in 6 months after big market tops–Table 1), and long defensivesand/or equity sectors/styles which dramatically underperformed in last months of thebubble–the classic“long humiliation, short hubris”trade. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Timestamp: 29 May 2026 04:16AM EDT Weekly Flows: $21.9bn to cash, $23.6bn to bonds, $1.0bn from gold, $1.2bn fromcrypto, $7.0bn from stocks. Flows to Know: •IG bonds: $12.3bn inflow, 8 weeks of inflows,•EM debt: $3.1bn inflow, 7 weeks of inflows,•Global stocks: $7.0bn outflow, first outflow in 9 weeks,•Japan stocks: $8.2bn outflow, largest outflow since May’25 (Chart 9),•Europe stocks: $1.6bn outflow, 7 weeks of outflows,•China stocks: $14.0bn outflow, note massive $218bn cumulative outflow from Chinafunds since Jan’26 (Chart 7),•Infrastructure: $0.8bn inflow, cumulative inflow into infrastructure funds sinceApr’25 is $24bn (Chart 8). BofA Private Clients: $4.5tn AUM…66.0% stocks (record high), 17.3% bonds (lowestsince Mar’22), 9.6% cash (record low); private client bid for stocks ongoing... equity ETFshare count up 0.2% past week, 0.5% MTD, 4.6% YTD; record weekly outflow from cash,biggest weekly inflow to T-bonds (20-30-year Treasuries) since Oct’22, record weeklyinflow to bond ETFs (notably TLT, JAAA, VGIT) hints at private client interest inextending duration; past four weeks, private clients buying materials, municipal bond,TIPS ETFs, selling utilities, low-volatility, bank loan ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator1: up to 8.5 from 8.0, rises further into contrarian “sellsignal” territory, driven by inflows to risky HY & EM debt, and BofA Global Breadth Rulerising toward “overbought” territory (net 57% of global stock indices trading >50-day &200-day moving averages.; 17 “sell signals” since '02, average loss for global stocks over2-3 months is 2-3% (hit ratio of ~60%), with max drawdowns of 15-20%... see report:BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Revamp. Dates for the Diary: June chockablock with event risk... US CPI ~4% on 10th, ECB hikeon 11th, G7 summit 15th, BoJ hike 16th, Warsh first FOMC/presser 17th, UK by-election18th, plus big month equity issuance; max bull positioning & profit expectations = takeprofits and fade drop in yields, rise in stocks as Iran conflict ended by new lows inPresidential approval on economy (35%) and inflation (28% - Chart 3). Post-bubble roadmap:exponential price action, slumping vol, lofty valuations (SPXtrailing PE 29x), market concentration (see report:The Hitchhiker’s Guide to theInvestment Universe)... post-bubble investor roadmap since 1929 is long bonds, and longcombo of defensives and/or sectors which dramatically underperformed in the lastmonths of the bubble... •Roaring‘20s: easy credit, industrial buildout & new technologies such as radio,autos, telephone... bubble led by utilities, telcos, industrials & banks; bubble peakedSept 3rd, 1929 (Black Thursday was Oct 24th); following six months utilities,industrials, banks underperformed, slumping index (telcos hung-on-in-there), whileenergy flipped from