流动秀：做多底特律，做空达沃斯

Long Detroit, short Davos Scores on the Doors: gold 14.4%, commodities 5.2%, international stocks 4.5%, oil4.1%, bitcoin 2.5%, US stocks 1.0%, HY bonds 0.7%, IG bonds 0.4%, cash 0.2%, US$0.0%, govt bonds -0.3% YTD. 22 January 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Thankfully for my portfolio he’s got no intention of improving theaffordability of equities”…private client. The Price is Right: 3 months following seven nominations for Fed Chair since 1970(Burns, Miller, Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell), yields up every time (2-year+65bps, 10-year +49bps - Table 1); but MOVE index of Treasury vol at 4-year lowssuggests market confident in’26 new Fed Chair won’t send 30-year Treasury yieldabove“risk-off”5% level as QE/YCC measures coming to“fix”price of fixed income. MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: bond price of 30-year US Treasury -50% and JGB -45% peak-to-trough in 2020s; great bond bear (on new world order, debasement, populism, fiscalexcess…) catalyst for great H1 2020s‘Anything But Bonds’bull in US tech, EU/Japanbanks & gold; we say Emerging Markets and small cap = new ABB bulls in H2 2020s. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087 The Biggest Picture: silver price in Japanese yen at all-time high (Chart 2), surpasses1980 high; Japan debasement and weak Asian FX spurring big capital outflows into US &EU assets (e.g. Korean retail $100bn into US stocks–Chart 4); watch Aussie dollar vsJapan yen…AUDJPY>110 = multi-year breakout to 35-year high = risk-stays-on; failure Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, or More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevantmarkets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Weekly Flows: $15.4bn to bonds, $4.9bn to gold, $0.7bn to cash, $1.2bn from crypto(biggest outflow in 2 months), $43.2bn from stocks (record outflow driven by China Flows to Know: •China equities: record $49.2bn outflow (related to“national team”selling to coolChina stocks–Chart 11); •Japan equities: $2.2bn inflow, biggest since Oct’25; US equities: $16.8bn outflow, 1stoutflow in 2 weeks; •Europe equities: $0.7bn inflow (6-week inflow to EU stocks strongest since Jun’25); •Tech: $1.4bn outflow, biggest in 4 weeks; •Financials: $2.9bn inflow. BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…64.4% stocks, 17.7% bonds, 10.7% cash; biggestbond inflow week since Mar'23, led by IG bond & US Treasury ETFs); past 4 weeks,private clients buying IG bonds, municipal bonds, and TIPS ETFs, selling REITs, HY bonds, BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 9.2 from 9.4 on big outflows from equity/EM ETFs,a dip in global stock index breadth, offsets bullish positioning in BofA FMS (e.g. cash level at record low 3.2%);“old”1B&B indicator down to 7.0 from 7.5. 3Ps:Q1 zeitgeist =“rotate don't retreat”; big tops coincide with max bullish Positioning(check), everyone expecting Profit boom (check), and Policy tightening (nope); 2026 isn’t2018 or 2022…policy easing bigly via Fed cuts, tax cuts, tariff cuts, plus $0.6tnFed/Trump QE)…why no one retreating until 30-year Treasury yield above 5.1% (paniclevel of Oct’23 & May’25) signaling tighter money. ABB…Anything But Bonds:surge in long-term yields in Japan to highest since 1999(30-year hit 3.9%) means peak-to-trough the price of 30-year US Treasury down 50% &30-year JGB down 45% thus far in 2020s (Chart 5); first half of 2020s the bond bearcaused an ABB bull in gold, EU/JP banks, US tech/Mag 7; we think H2 2020s small/midcap stocks and Emerging Markets new beneficiaries of ABB…same in 1970s when wage& price controls, pro-cyclical fiscal/monetary policies, US$ debasement (end of BrettonWoods) caused peak of Nifty 50 bull market in 1972 and gold (1971-74) replaced by Gold: secular bull intact; new world