流动秀：当杰罗姆遇到唐纳德

When Jeromemet Donald Scores on the Doors: bitcoin 28.0%, gold 27.2%, stocks 10.8%, IG bonds 6.7%, HY6.6%, govt bonds 5.3%, commods 2.4%, cash 2.3%, oil -7.4%, US dollar -9.3% YTD. 18 July 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Bears target bonds, bulls target stocks.” Tale of the Tape: 30-year bond yields still eying "jailbreak" levels (UK 5.6%, US 5.1%,Japan 3.2%)…no new highs in yields & MOVE index stays around 80 = risk-on (Chart 5),new highsin long bond yields & MOVE index >100 = risk-off. The Price is Right: stocks @ highs, breadth @ lows…equal-weight SPW vs. SPX @ 22-year low, small cap RTY vs SPX near 25-year lows, value vs growth @ 30-year low(Chart3)…all signal US economy slowing and/or US equities bubbling; in contrast, value stocks&small cap outperforming in global stock markets (Chart 4). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com TheBiggest Picture: 1971 most infamous “White House = Fed cuts” event; Aug 15thNixonannounces "New Economic Policy" (Bretton Woods ends, wage-price freeze, 10%import tariffs)with U-rate 6% & CPI 4%...Burns stokes boom-bust with Aug-Dec 225bpsFed funds cut (Chart 2)…initially “sold” (US$ -5%, SPX -9%, UST yields -70bps)…but in’72 SPX up 11%as US$ devalued further 8% in run-up to Nov’72 Nixon reelection. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Chart2:Booms, Busts&Votes in the 1970sUS Fed Funds rate (inverted)and Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1966 to 1977 Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for allinvestors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuerscovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12852698 Timestamp: 18 July 2025 03:31AM EDT Weekly Flows: $15.7bn to bonds, $5.8bn to crypto (biggest inflow since Nov’24),$4.8bn to stocks, $1.3bn to gold, $26.0bn from cash (biggest outflow since Apr’25). Flows to Know: •US Treasuries: weakest foreign inflows past 3 months ($0.5bn) since Feb’17 (Chart12);•US stocks: slowing foreign inflows past 3-months (<$2bn, down from $34bn inJan’25–Chart 13); US share of all global equity inflows down from 72% in’24 to48% in’25;•Healthcare funds: biggest weekly outflow since Jun’20 ($2.3bn–Chart 14);•Materials funds: record weekly inflow ($6.0bn–Chart 15). BofA Private Clients: $4.0tn AUM…63.9% stocks, 18.3% bonds, 10.8% cash; longeststreak of inflows (5 weeks) to US Treasuries since Aug’23; in ETFs past 4 weeks, privateclients buying utilities, materials, low-volatility funds, selling Japan, healthcare, tech. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 6.3 from 6.2, highest since Oct'24 on strong EM/HYinflows & lower FMS cash levels (offset by hedge fund S&P500 short positioning); whatpushes B&B Indicator toward sell signal of 8 in coming weeks…equity inflows >$25bn,HY bond inflow >$3bn, S&P500 >6400, hedge funds covering SPX shorts. BofA Trading Rules: bulk oftrading rules at/near sell signals… •BofA FMS Cash Rule…cash as % AUM in FMS 3.9%. = sell signal…average SPX lossin following most from 15 "sell" signals since 2011 = 2%;•BofA Global Breadth Rule…64% of MSCI ACWI equity indices trading >50/200-daymoving averages, down from 80% last, below 88% sell signal level;•BofA Global Flow Trading Rule…past 4 weeks global equity/HY bond inflows =0.9%of AUM, down from 1.0% last week (triggered sell signal). The Fed & the White House: 1.Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals by heads of state sparse(Table 1), but always driven by policy conflict over rates (Hungary, Türkiye),currencies (Russia, Argentina), allegation of corrupti