美银-The Flow Show：当杰罗姆遇见唐纳德

End ofBrettonWoods'70'71'72'73NixonimpeachmentArthurBurnscuts rates by225bpsPennCentralbankruptcy thBofA GLOBAL RESEARCH'74'75'76'77FranklinNationalbankruptcyOilshock, YomKippur WarNYC files forbankruptcy 18 July 2025Investment StrategyGlobalMichael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.comAnya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.comMyung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.comChart1: BofA Bull & Bear IndicatorRises to6.3from6.2Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.ExtremeBearishBuy2 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH46 36912 Weekly Flows: $15.7bn to bonds, $5.8bn to crypto (biggest inflow since Nov’24),$4.8bn to stocks, $1.3bn to gold, $26.0bn from cash (biggest outflow since Apr’25).Flows to Know:•US Treasuries: weakest foreign inflows past 3 months ($0.5bn) since Feb’17 (Chart12);•US stocks: slowing foreign inflows past 3-months (<$2bn, down from $34bn inJan’25–Chart 13); US share of all global equity inflows down from 72% in’24 to48% in’25;•Healthcare funds: biggest weekly outflow since Jun’20 ($2.3bn–Chart 14);•Materials funds: record weekly inflow ($6.0bn–Chart 15).BofA Private Clients: $4.0tn AUM…63.9% stocks, 18.3% bonds, 10.8% cash; longeststreak of inflows (5 weeks) to US Treasuries since Aug’23; in ETFs past 4 weeks, privateclients buying utilities, materials, low-volatility funds, selling Japan, healthcare, tech.BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 6.3 from 6.2, highest since Oct'24 on strong EM/HYinflows & lower FMS cash levels (offset by hedge fund S&P500 short positioning); whatpushes B&B Indicator toward sell signal of 8 in coming weeks…equity inflows >$25bn,HY bond inflow >$3bn, S&P500 >6400, hedge funds covering SPX shorts.BofA Trading Rules: bulk oftrading rules at/near sell signals…•BofA FMS Cash Rule…cash as % AUM in FMS 3.9%. = sell signal…average SPX lossin following most from 15 "sell" signals since 2011 = 2%;•BofA Global Breadth Rule…64% of MSCI ACWI equity indices trading >50/200-daymoving averages, down from 80% last, below 88% sell signal level;•BofA Global Flow Trading Rule…past 4 weeks global equity/HY bond inflows =0.9%of AUM, down from 1.0% last week (triggered sell signal).The Fed & the White House:1.Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals by heads of state sparse(Table 1), but always driven by policy conflict over rates (Hungary, Türkiye),currencies (Russia, Argentina), allegation of corruption (Nigeria); in every casedismissal coincided with sharp FXdeclines;2.US fiscal math reason Powell under Trump pressure...US government spend = $7tnand Trump can't cut $4tn mandatory spending, has backed off cutting $1tn ofdiscretionary spend (no DOGE) and $1tn of defense spend (Iran/Ukraine…leaves$1tn of interest rate cuts as sole vehicle to cut big government spend...Fed funds at3.25% would stabilize $1tn US debt costs (Chart 6), and Fed funds @ 2% (5-yearUST yield @ 2.5%) would cut debt costs by $200bn;3.Wall St front-running Fed capitulation as next stage of US policy flip from H1’25“detox”to H2’25-H1’26 nominal GDP boom (rates down, taxes down, tariffs down)as Trump solution to lower debt/GDP…easiest way to pay for One Big Beautiful Billcould be One Big Beautiful Bubble;ifforced change in Fed Chair/Fed cuts comingmonths in absence of recession…best trades are (all of which are likely to occurbeforeany change at central bank/first rate cuts)…short US dollar (US$debasement), long gold/crypto (anarchy hedges), short 30-year Treasury (Fed cuttinginto boom not bust), long barbell of US tech & EAFE/EM value (hedging bubble);note recent cycles say Fed funds below 2.5% needed to cause outflows from moneymarket funds. Bubble VIBBEs: bubbles always synonymous with Valuation, Inflation, Bonds, Breadth,Exponential price moves…bubble brewing in US, equity leadership Jailbreaks (SOX >6k,MAGS >$60, BKX >150) adds to brew…but biggest tell would be stocks totally ignoring arise in inflation expectations & bond yields to new highs…•V is for Valuation…past 9 equity bubble since 1900 average trailing PE at high =58x….current trailing P/E of Magnificent 7 = 44x;•I is for Inflation…Wall St bubble = Main St inflation…CPI in Japan late‘80s rose to4%, in US late‘90s to 4%, China mid‘00s to 9%–Chart 10);•B is for Bonds…bubbles = higher bond yields…Japan 3% to 8% late‘80s, US 4% to6% late‘90s…UST 30-year up 60bps past year, up 150bps past 2 years…ultimatelyproper bubble always ended by jump in bond yields & real yields (if proper bubble