美国银行-The Flow Show 两半场游戏

Weekly Flows: $26.1bn to cash, $12.1bn to bonds, $3.5bn to equities, $2.8bn to gold,$2.1bn to crypto. Weekly Flows to Know: •IGbonds: smallest inflow in 8 weeks ($1.3bn),•EM debt: record weekly inflow ($5.8bn–Chart 6),•US small cap: biggest outflow since Dec’24 ($4.4bn–Chart 7),•Healthcare: biggest inflow since Feb’25 ($0.6bn). H1'25 Flows to Know: for all theSturm und Drangevery asset class blessed byinflows…$427bn to cash, $325bn to stocks, $269bn to bonds, $40bn to gold (record),$17bn to crypto...only flowlaggardsweresmall cap & healthcare funds… •USstocks: $164bn inflow, on coursefor 3rdlargest annual inflow ever,•Europestocks: $46bn inflow, on coursefor 2ndlargest annual inflowever,•Large capstocks: $224bn inflow, on course forrecord annual inflow in '25,•US small cap: $35bn outflow, on course forrecord annual outflow in '25,•Healthcare: $13bn outflow, on course for record annual outflow in '25. BofA Private Clients: $3.9tn AUM…63.1% stocks, 18.8% bonds, 11.0% cash(underhoodMagnificent 7 stocks = 14.8%of AUM (common stocks & ETFs), US Treasurybonds (2-30-year) = 3.6%, international stocks = 3.4%(common stocks & ETFs), gold =0.4% of AUM…Bonds, International, Gold, i.e. no big length in Bonds, International, Gold;in ETFs private clients buying HY, MLP, low-volfunds, selling Japan, high-dividend, techfundspast 4 weeks. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:rises to 5.8 from 5.5, highest since Nov'24, onfallingFMScashlevels, strong global stock index breadth, rising inflows torisky assets such asEMequity& debtfunds, offset bymore bearishhedge fundpositioning(CFTC data showshedge funds adding protection against lower S&P500). BofA Global Breadth Rule:good tactical oversold/overbought contrarian rule…when>88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading above 50-and200-day movingaverages…sell, when >88% trading below…buy; currently 73%of MSCI ACWI countrystock indices trading above 50-and 200-day moving averages in past week, andJulymove in S&P500 >6300 would likely trigger "sell signal". BofA Global Flow Trading Rule: good tactical greed/fear contrarian rule…when flowsto global equity & high yield bonds exceed 1.0% of AUM in 4 weeks…sell,when outflows>1.0% of AUM...buy;past 4 weeksinflows to global equity/HY bondsprecisely 0.99% sogreedyinflows saying take some profits off the table(note only time to ignore tradingrules is in a bubble or a crash). On Price & Positioning:contrarian trades worked in H1, no guarantee they work in H2(especially as US$ and gold aside no big positioning extremes in Jun),butfor what it’sworthcontrariantrades for H2based onH1 performance, sentiment, flowsare… •Long US dollar, •Long oil, short gold, •Long US consumer discretionary, short EU banks, •Long airlines, short defense,•Long Mag7, short China tech,•Long REITs/homebuilders, shortinfrastructure,•Long small cap value, short momentum. On Policy:policy setup intoH2’25less threatening given potential for Fed cuts &Trump obeying Wall St andbacking away from asset negativeDOGE&tariffs… •Bad news:UStrade policy…tariffconcernshavepeaked but US effective tariff ratefloorlooks set to be10%, big rise from2% in 2024, effectively $400bnglobal taxrisefor foreignexporters, domestic importers,USconsumers (would rise to $700bnJuly 9thif no trade deals cause US to impose additional reciprocal tariffsbut marketdoes not expect this outcome), •Bad news: US governmentspending…currently flat YoY, set to decline $50bn in’26,big reversal from prior years of fiscal excess (note US government spend rose$650bn to $7tnin '24),•Good news:US tax cuts…Big Beautiful Billset to cut US taxes $90bn per annumfrom’26 onward,•Good news:Europe/NATO/China fiscal stimulus…govt spending to increase$110bnin Germany next 18 months, $90bn across NATO in '26, $40bn in China in '25,•Good news:global monetary policy…64 rate cuts YTD…‘25 on tracktobebiggestyear ofglobalrate cuts since 2009 (Chart3),andFed likely joins rate cut party toarrest H1slowdown in US growth. On Profits:absent US AI bubble, EPS acceleration most plausible upside surprise for US& global stocks H2; 12-month forward EPS expectations 11% inUS, 8% in China, 6% inEurope;Jun US ISM >50, payrolls >150k would support EPS expectations, but ISM <50,payrolls <100k means macro unsupportive of summerGDP/EPS/SPX upward revisions(Charts 4-5); investors focused on Trump & structural drivers, not focused on Powell &cyclical drivers; we say>$300SPXEPSneedsunambiguous global growth acceleration,AIproductivity via gradual rise inunemployment. OurView:we stayoverweight“BIG”(Bonds, International, Gold); we arehappy cyclicalbuyers of Treasuries (US macro slowing, Fed will cut, yields will fall…only risk for bonds= equity bubble), flip from US to EU/China fiscal excess = exceptional secularoutperformance of US vs International stocks over, gold remains best hedge of comingUS$ bear market (+ve commodities & EM too); tactically BofA trading rules nearing sellsignals, but bubbles ignore trading rules and absent payrolls <100