固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The Asset G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2026 Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk We hope you found our commentaries and ideas helpful. Weseek to elevate ourefforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highly appreciate yoursupport to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “The AssetG3 Bond Benchmark The new BCHINA Float 05/28/31 widened 2bps from RO at SOFR+38 thismorning.AsianIGspaceoveralltightened1-3bps,ledbyNIPLIF/LGENSO/HYNMTR. Asian AT1s edged 0.3-0.5pt higher amid betterbuying andshort covering.The SOFTBK curve rose 0.5-1.0pt. Media Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk UPLLIN:Earnings recovery in FY26 and proactive liability managementunderpin its credit profile.UPLLIN 28-30 were unchanged this morning. See The Indonesian government will centralize exports of strategic commoditiesto lift state revenues and tighten control of natural resources.INDYIJ29/MEDCIJ 28-30s were unchanged to 0.6pt lower yesterday.INDYIJ Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,VNKRLE 27’ and 29’ dropped 1.1-1.6pts. Media reported thatVanke last week came up with a list of assets worth RMB39.4bn (cUSD5.8bn)that could potentially be pledged as collateral for its currently unsecuredoffshoreloans.FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 27-29/LNGFOR 27-32 wereunchangedto 0.2pt lower.WESCHI 28-29 leaked another 0.9-1.3pts.EHICAR 27-29 were 0.8-1.4pts weaker. In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDLcomplex were 0.3pt lower to 0.2pt higher. MTRC Perps lost 0.2-0.3pt. In SEAsian space, INDYIJ were down 0.6pt. The Indonesian government issueda regulation establishing a SOE to act as a single-exporter channel for criticalnatural resources like crude palm oil and coal, effective 1 Jun’26. IndikaEnergy 1Q26 revenue increased by 0.7% yoy to USD493.2mn. MEDCIJ 28-30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. UPLLINs closed 0.2pt lower.See ourcomments on UPL’s FY26 resultsbelow. The ReNew Energy complex wereunchanged to 0.1pt lower. See our commentsyesterdayon FY26 results of Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+1.08%), Dow (+1.31%) and Nasdaq (+1.54%) were higher on Wednesday. US crude oilinventories were-7.863mn barrels, compared to the market expectation of-2.500mn.UST yield wasloweron Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 UPLLIN:Earnings recovery in FY26 and proactive liability management underpin its credit profile Overall,we view UPL’s credit profile is underpinned by improving profitability,sustained deleveragingmomentum and proactive liability management.See Table 1 for our picks in the SEA space, which we viewoffer better risk-adjusted return than UPLLINs.UPL delivered solid FY26 results with revenue rising 11% yoyto INR518.4bn, driven by volume growth of 8%and a favorable FX impact of 2%, partially offset by 3% pricingheadwind.Its contribution profit grew 17% yoy to INR213.4bn, with contribution profit margin expanding to UPL’s operating cash flow declined 23% yoy to INR78.6bn in FY26, reflectedlonger receivables days andhigher inventories built in anticipation of global uncertainty in 1QFY27.Its net working capital days were 57days in FY26. UPL’s management expects this metric to normalize at 60-65 days through the cycle.As ofMar’26, its cash and bank balances fell 36% yoy to INR60.9bn, on weaker operating cash flow and higher capex 5.25 Perp of USD400mn (cINR34.1bn) in May’25 and repaymentof USD500mn (cUSD42.6bn) loan in Mar’26,partially offset by the remaining USD200mn (cINR17.0bn) tranche of right issue proceeds received in Sep’25. UPL’s total debt and net debt reduced by USD850mn and USD400mn, respectively, from the levels as of Mar’25.Its net debts/EBITDA improved to 1.8x in FY26 from 2.3x in FY25, as per our calculation, and to 1.6x based onUPL’s calculation which was at the lower end of its target of 1.6-1.8x. Management targets its net debt/EBITDA In 1QFY27, management guided revenue growth of 10-14% yoy and EBITDA growth of 14-18% yoy, despitethe seasonally slow infirst quarter. The growth drivers includegeographical expansion by Advanta, marginexpansion from SUPERFORM’s strategic pivot toward higher-margin specialty chemical products (18-20% Management refrained from issuing full-year FY27 guidance, citing geopolitical headwinds in the Middle Eastresulting supply chain disruptions and price volatility across raw materials and finished goods. Against anuncertain macro backdrop, we takecomfort from UPL’s resilient 4QFY26 performance (EBITDA grew 13% yoy)despite oil prices peaking in Mar’26, as well as its limited near-term refinancing risk. In Mar’26, UPL refinancedUSD400mn loan originally due in Sep’26 in advance, secured improved pricing and extended the maturity by Newsand market color Regardingonshore primary issuances, there were 106 credit bonds issued yesterday with an amount ofRMB101bn. As for month-to-date, 683 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB843bn raised, [CQNANA]Fitch withdr