固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 We saw better buying on JP long-end insurance subs and betterselling onYankee bonds this morning, but their prices remained stable. SOFTBK 61-65edged 0.7pt higher.VNKRLE 27-29 recovered 0.3-0.4pt.GLPCHI Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk ZHOSHK:A surprise but not too alarming profit warning. ZHOSHK 28 down2.7ptsyesterday and unchanged this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Off to a good start. CMBI expects a 50bp cut in RRR anda 10bp cut in LPR by the end of 2Q26; full-year GDP growth rate may declinefrom 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026. See comments from CMBI economic Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,ZHOSHK 28 dropped by 2.7pts amid the profit-warning headline.There was one-way selling from onshore and offshore AM accounts, thoughdesks noted some bottom-fishing bids from onshore AMs. See our comments below.WESCHI28-29 were down by 0.2-0.4pt.See our commentsyesterday. In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex lost 0.1-0.7pt. HongKong's Town PlanningBoard rejected NWD's K11 Artus hotel conversion toflats. FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LIFUNGs were 0.2-0.6pt lower. LASUDE 26 wasanother 0.1pt lower. See our commentslast Friday. On the other hand,HYSANs were unchanged to 0.4pt higher. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE27’ and 29’ lost 1.8-1.9pts. LNGFOR 27-32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 27-29leaked 0.2-0.7pt. Seazen’s CEO Lv Xiaoping resigned yesterday (16Mar’26),we view the resignation to have immaterial impact on Seazen given Wangfamily’s 63% ownership and the family’s heavy involvement in the dailyoperations of the company. In KR space, the POHANG curve widened 4-6bps. S&P downgraded Posco’s ratingsby one notch to BBB+ from A-and Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+1.01%), Dow (+0.83%)and Nasdaq (+1.22%) were higher on Monday. UST yield was lower onMonday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.68%/3.80%/4.23%/4.86%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 ZHOSHK:A surprise but not too alarming profit warning We were surprised by Zhongsheng’s profit warning on loss attributable to shareholders of no more thanRMB2bn. According to Jardine Matheson’s FY25 results announced on 11 Mar’25, its share of Zhongsheng’sprofit is USD53mn, down 17% yoy.This should be translated into a profit attributable to shareholders atZhongsheng of cRMB1.8bn based on Jardine Matheson’s 21% ownership of Zhongsheng. We note the furtherdeterioration of new and used car sales, as well as the no more than 50% decrease in commission fromautomobile financing.Nonetheless, we estimate that its aggregate profit and absorption ratio should still becRMB10bn and c100% in FY25, respectively.Indeed, its profit/loss attributable to shareholders would be We do not consider the profit warning is too alarming. Based on the few figures from Jardine Matheson’s FY25results, we believe that Zhonsheng’s FYE25 net assets (even after adjusted for expected loss attributable toshareholders) should be higher than those of FYE25 and current financial liabilities in FYE25 should be lowerthan those of FYE24 despite lower cash balance.As per Zhongsheng, its new automobile sales volume We are not too concerned on Zhongsheng’s near-term liquidity profile. Over the past few years, Zhongshenghas been disciplined in expansion and has been consistently generating positive FCF for net debt reduction.Ithas been proactively managing its liabilities in advance.Since May’25, Zhongsheng repaid the remaining o/samountof its CB due May’25 and early-redeemed the remaining ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26,totalingcUSD630mn.These reflect the company’s confidence on its liquidity profile.The next major maturity will be ChinaEconomy: Off to a good start China’s economy started 2026 on a firmer footing, with stronger retail sales, FAI and industrial output on theback of CNY-related consumption, newly allocatedfiscal funding and surging exports. On the other hand,property market continued to slump in both sales and price, and durable goods like auto saw sharp contraction.The sustainability remained in doubt, as exports strength may fade after the early-year surge, the propertyslump remains a major drag, and durable goods could soften due to demand overdraft. Rising energy pricesmay ease deflation by lifting upstream and input costs, but this is more cost-push than demand-driven andcould squeeze downstream margins and household purchasing power. Overall, the rebound is likely to besupportive but not yet self-sustaining, leaving room for further policy easing later in the year. The slumping Property sector further slumped in both sales and price.The contraction of gross floor area (GFA) sold forcommercial building contracted 13.5% YTD in 2M26 compared to-8.7% YTD in Dec 2025 according to NBS,while the residential sales further dropped to-15.9% YTD from-9.2% YTD. The new housing sales in first halfof Mar continued to dip 12.8% YoY according tomarket data