越南宏观监测2026年1月

January 2026 WHAT’ NEW? Real GDP growth accelerated to 8 percent in 2025, supported by strong exports andhigher public investment.Exportsreached record levels, led by high-techand electronicsshipments to theUS.However,withboomingintermediatetrade liftingoverallimportsto record highs,net exports havebegun to drag on overall growthincontrast to previous years.RisingFDIinflowsand publicinvestmentdisbursements boostedmanufacturingandconstructionactivity.Although generally resilient, consumer spendingondurable goodshasslowedamidcautious sentimentrelated to a weak housingsector. Inflationisbelow target,helped bylowerglobal energyprices.Despite rapid credit growth, financial conditionshavetightened at the marginamid persistentexchangePublic Disclosure Authorized TO WATCH •New export ordersas a trade-policy/external demandshock wouldheavilyweigh on industrial production. •Rapid credit expansion amid funding pressuresthatraisesbank assetquality risksamid concentratedsectoral exposuresandearly signs of rising NPLs.Depreciation could prompt tighter liquidity and higher short- •Policy directions and strategic prioritiesoncethe 14th Party Congress concludes in late Januarythat willshape Viet NamMonthlyMacro Monitoring Dashboard Industrial Production(y/y)Manufacturing PMIRetail sales(y/y)Merchandise exports(y/y)Merchandise imports(y/y)CPI(y/y)Core inflation(y/y)Ex. rate(VND/USD, y/y)FDI disbursement(YTD, y/y)Credit growth(YTD, y/y) VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING January2026 Real GDP growth accelerated to 8 percent in 2025,upfrom7.1percentin2024(Figure 1), driven by bothrobustexports andhigher public investment.Exports rose by16.7 percentin 2025(vs14.5 percent in 2024),ledby high-techand electronicsshipments to theUSthatreached US$153 billion(28.1 percent higherthan 2024).Imports also increased markedly(19.4 percent), reflectinggrowingintermediatetrade(Figure 2).As a result,net exportsare an increasingdrag ongrowth, compared to2022–23(whentheycontributed 2 percentage Strongerexports, resilient FDI inflows, andhigherpublic investment boosted industrial activityandsentimentin 2025,liftingoutputby 9.2 percent (Figure 3)andkeepingmanufacturing PMIindiceswell abovethe 50 thresholdin the second half of the year(Figure 4).Arecovery inreal estate activity and faster publicinvestment(Figure 5)boosteddemandand activity in theconstructructionsector.Whileservices and Inflationremainedlow despite rapid credit growth and rising public and FDI investment; howeverexchange rate pressures persisted.Headline inflation averaged3.3 percent in 2025,below the4-4.5 percenttarget ratehelped bylowerglobal energyprices(Figure8).However, at 3.3 percent core inflation(excludingvolatile food, fuels, and administered prices) remainedrelativelyelevatedcompared topre-COVID levels,drivenby higherhousing costs.DespiterecentUSFederal Reservepolicyrate cuts,theDong weakenedby 3.6 Higher credit growth targets during 2025supported activity but also increased financial-sector risks. With thecentral bank raisingcredit targets for commercial banks to 19 percent from 16 percent at the start of2025, total credit reached~145percent of GDPin 2025,up19 percentfromthe previous year(Figure11),amongthe highest in theASEAN region.Maintaining prudent lending standards and close monitoring of creditquality remain essential to safeguard financial stability.With deposits growingmore slowlyand liquidity 2025 marked a transformative yearwithmajor institutional,legal and regulatoryreforms inititated.Aboldadministrativereform–mergingministries(from 18 to 14) and provinces (from 63 to 34)andeliminating districtlevel–aims toimprove administrative efficiency and speed up decision-making.Several public finance relatedlawswere amendedincludingthe State Budget, Public Investment, and Public Debt Management Lawstospeed up public investmentthrough betterupstream prioritization and appraisal, strengthenedbudgetallocation and execution rules, andsimplification ofborrowing and on-lending arrangements, especially for VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING January2026 VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING January2026 VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING January2026 Sources and notes: All data are from Haver and sourced from theNationalStatistics Office (NSO) of VietNam, except: Governmentbudget revenues and expenditures (Ministry of Finance); PMI and producer price inflation (survey by Nikkei and IHSMarkit); Purchasing Managers' Index is derived from a survey of 400 manufacturing companies and is based on fiveindividual indexes on new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times (and stock of items purchased). It isseasonally adjusted. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING January 2026