越南宏观监测，2025年10月

October2025 WHAT’ NEW? Industrial production continued to strengthen in October, supported by solid export performance and robustconstruction activity.Export growth remainedstrong forthe foreign-invested sector, whichcontinued toexpand,while domestic firms faced slower orders.Domestically, demand weakened amid cautiousconsumer sentiment andunfavorableweather conditions,asevidenced byslower retail sales growth.Inflation eased slightly, mainly due to lower transport costs following a decline in global oil prices.Theexchange rate stabilized in October amid devaluation pressures.Public Disclosure Authorized TO WATCH •The divergence between the FDI and domestic sectors will remain a key riskin terms of widening an alreadylarge gapthat creates limited positive spillovers and deepensa structural imbalance in growth. •Monitoring household consumption and the recovery of retail sales will beimportant given the significantrole of private consumption in driving growth.•Persistentexchange rate pressures and liquidityconstraintscouldconstrain monetary policy space to boostdomestic demand.Public Disclosure Authorized Viet NamMonthlyMacro Monitoring Dashboard Industrial Production(y/y)Manufacturing PMIRetail sales(y/y)Merchandise exports(y/y)Merchandise imports(y/y)CPI(y/y)Core inflation(y/y)Ex. rate(VND/USD, y/y)FDI disbursement(YTD, y/y)Credit growth(YTD, y/y)Generated electricity(y/y)Cargo(y/y)Public inv.disb. ratePublic Disclosure Authorized VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING October2025 Industrial production continued to expand on the back of rising exports(Figure 1)and constructionactivities.Exports rose by an average of18.9 percenty/yoverAugust-October.This compares to16.1 percentgrowth in the firstten monthsof 2025andto 15.2 percent growth in the same period of 2024.US exportsremainedresilient,increasingby27.7 percent y/yYTD (27.3 percenty/y in Aug-Oct since the imposition ofreciprocal tariffs).Mirroring exports, industrial production increased by10.7 percent (y/y, 3mma) in October,underpinned by resilient performance in the electronics sector.The manufacturing sectoralsosawsharpandaccelerated increases in output and newexportorders in October 2025(Figure 2). The PMI rose to 54.5 inOctober, up markedly from a reading of 50.4 in September, amid confidence that new orders will continue toriseandcomplemented byplans to expand production capacityamong surveyed companies. Exports growth remained uneven between FDI1and domesticfirmssince the tariff announcement inApril (Figure3).While the FDIfirms’exportsincreased sharply, reaching32.3 percent (y/y, 3mma) in October2025,domesticfirmsexperienced a decline inits exports (-14.4 percenty/y, 3mma).FDI-supportedsectors–mainly phones, consumer electronics, and machinery–continued tobenefitfrom strong integration into globalsupply chains and stable external demand. In contrast,domesticfirms–which account for30 percentof totalexports andincludetextile, footwear and wood productsmanufacturers-weremore adversely affectedchallenges from US tariffs. The decline in both registered capital and employment of newly established firms in Viet Nam(Figure 4)suggests a weakening ofdomesticbusiness dynamism.New firms are entering the market with fewerworkers,whiletheinitial capital of new firms has plateaued below pre-pandemic levels.Moreover, the numberoffirmexits continued to exceed new entriesas end of October 2025(192,757exit firms vs 162,935 new entryfirms), resulting in negative net entry. Thesetrendsunderscorecontinued soft domestic demand andchallenges faced bysmall and medium enterprisesto grow. Octoberdata pointed to weakerdomesticdemand.Retail sales of goods andservices deceleratedsharplyto 7.2 percent y/y in October 2025 from 11.3percent y/yinSeptember2025(Figure 5).Adverse weatherconditions, includingmultiple storms,may haveweakenedretail consumption. CPIreduced slightlyfrom3.4percenty/yinSeptember2025to 3.3percent y/y inOctober 2025,mainlydriven bytransport coststhanks to lower oil prices(Figure 6).Core inflation (which excludesvolatile items suchasfood, fuels, and government-administered prices)edged up from3.2percentin September 2025 to 3.3percent in October 2025. Theexchange rate stabilizedamid devaluation pressure.The US/VNDexchange rate reached26,248VND(4.9percenty/yYTD). Theexchange rate depreciation was managed within the +/-5 percent band, thanks toan increase in the central rate,theintervention of SBV in the foreign exchange marketby sellingUSD forwardcontractsand a gradual tighteningof liquidity.This led to a mirror rise in overnight interbank rates from4.2percent inSeptember 2025to5percent inOctober2025(Figure 8). VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING October2025 Note:FDIsector refers to enterprises withforeign investment capitalregardless of capital contribution ratio.FDI enterprisesinclude 100%foreign-ownedenterprises anddomesticenterprises withjoint ventureswith foreigncountries(source: NSO statistical yearbook). VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING October2025 Sources and no