TMTB 早间综述 TMT 突破

TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破JAN12,2026 2026年1⽉12⽇∙PAID∙付费 Goodmorning.Futures-66bpsoffearlymainlydrivenbythecriminalinvestigationlaunchedintoPowell.TheotherpieceoffmacronewswasTrumpʼscallFridaynightforcreditcardindustrytocapinterestratesat10%. 早安。期货早盘下跌66个基点，主要受针对鲍威尔发起的刑事调查所驱动。另⼀条宏观消息是，特朗普周五晚间呼吁信⽤卡⾏业将利率上限设定为10%。 Outsideofthat,stocksinAsiamainlysawgainswithparticularstrengthinChina:HangSeng+1.44%,HSCEI+1.9%,SHCOMP+1.09%,Shenzhen+2.05%,TaiwanTAIEX+0.92%,KoreaKOSPI+0.84%.BTCflatat$90k.Longendofthecurveisrising3-5bps.Fedexpectationshavebeenshiftingslightlyinhawkishdirectionwithmarketonlyexpectinga42%chanceofacutinApril. 除此之外，亚洲股市整体上涨，其中中国市场表现尤为强劲：恒⽣指数+1.44%，恒⽣国企指数+1.9%，上证综指+1.09%，深证成指+2.05%，台湾加权指数+0.92%，韩国KOSPI指数+0.84%。⽐特币持平于9万美元。收益率曲线⻓端上⾏3–5个基点。美联储预期略微向鹰派⽅向转移，市场⽬前仅预计4⽉降息的概率为42%。 Afirehoseofnews/sell-sideactionthismorningsolotstogetto… 今早新闻与卖⽅动向铺天盖地，因此需要关注的内容很多…… GOOGL/SHOP:GoogleteamsupwithWalmartandotherretailerstoenableshoppingwithinGeminiAIchatbot GOOGL/SHOP：⾕歌与沃尔玛及其他零售商合作，在GeminiAI聊天机器⼈中实现购物功能 AP:AP： GooglesaidSundaythatitisexpandingtheshoppingfeaturesinitsAIchatbotbyteamingupwithWalmart,Shopify,WayfairandotherbigretailerstoturntheGeminiappintoavirtualmerchantaswellasanassistant. ⾕歌周⽇表示，将通过与沃尔玛、Shopify、Wayfair等⼤型零售商合作，扩展其AI聊天机器⼈的购物功能，把Gemini应⽤打造成既是助⼿⼜是虚拟商家。 AninstantcheckoutfunctionwillallowcustomerstomakepurchasesfromsomebusinessesandthrougharangeofpaymentproviderswithoutleavingtheGeminichattheyusedtofindproducts,accordingtoWalmartandGoogle. 据沃尔玛和⾕歌介绍，⼀项即时结账功能将允许消费者在⽆需离开⽤于查找商品的Gemini聊天界⾯的情况下，通过部分商家和多种⽀付服务提供商完成购买。 GoogleʼsnewAIshoppingfeatureworksthisway:ifacustomeraskswhatgeartogetforawinterskitrip,forexample,Geminiwillreturnitemsfromaparticipatingretailersʼinventory. ⾕歌的新AI购物功能的运作⽅式如下：例如，当消费者询问冬季滑雪旅⾏需要哪些装备时，Gemini将返回来⾃参与零售商库存的相关商品。 SHOP:Baird/KeybancpositiveonAgenticCommerceOptionality SHOP：Baird/KeyBanc看好代理式电商的可选性 KeyBancsaysShopifyʼsUCPannouncementsmeaningfullyexpanditsagenticcommercefootprintbyaddingnewmerchanton-rampsviadeepintegrationswithGoogleSearch/Gemini,OpenAI,andChatGPT,allmanagedthroughShopifyAdminandAgenticStorefronts.ThefirmhighlightsthenewAgenticPlanopeningShopifyCatalogtonon-Shopifymerchantsasincrementalfunnelexpansion,reinforcingShopifyʼspositionasacoreenablerformerchantsnavigatingagenticworkflows.Bairdechoesamostlypositiveread,arguingtheupdatessupportShopifyʼsroleasthecheckoutlayerandhelpprotectmarketshareasmerchantinventoryincreasinglysurfacesacrossmultipleAIagents.Net,bothfirmsframetheannouncementsasstrengtheningShopifyʼsstrategicrelevanceinagenticcommerce, withpotentialupsidetomerchantacquisitionandengagement. KeyBanc表示，Shopify的UCP公告通过与GoogleSearch/Gemini、OpenAI以及ChatGPT的深度整合，新增了新的商户接⼊路径，从⽽显著扩展了其代理式（Agentic）电商版图；所有这些均通过ShopifyAdmin和AgenticStorefronts进⾏管理。该机构强调，全新的AgenticPlan向⾮Shopify商户开放ShopifyCatalog，带来了增量式的漏⽃扩展，进⼀步巩固了Shopify作为商户应对代理式⼯作流的核⼼赋能平台地位。Baird也给出了总体偏正⾯的解读，认为这些更新强化了Shopify作为结账层（checkoutlayer）的⻆⾊，并有助于在商户库存⽇益通过多个AI代理呈现的背景下保护其市场份额。总体⽽⾔，两家机构均将这些公告视为提升Shopify在代理式电商领域战略相关性的举措，并有望在商户获取与参与度⽅⾯带来上⾏空间。 GOOGL:GoogleintroducespersonalisedadsintoAIshoppingtools GOOGL：⾕歌在AI购物⼯具中引⼊个性化⼴告 FinancialTimes⾦融时报 GoogleisintroducingnewpersonalisedadvertisingintoitsAIshoppingtools,asitseekstomakemoneyfromthehundredsofmillionsofpeoplewhouseitschatbotforfreeandgainmarketsharefromrivalOpenAI.AdvertiserswillbeabletopresentexclusiveofferstoshopperswhoarepreparingtobuyanitemthroughGoogleʼsAImode,whichispoweredbyitsGeminimodel,theAlphabet-ownedtechgroupannouncedonSunday ⾕歌正在将新的个性化⼴告引⼊其AI购物⼯具，旨在从数亿免费使⽤其聊天机器⼈的⽤户身上实现变现，并从竞争对⼿OpenAI⼿中争夺市场份额。Alphabet旗下的这家科技集团周⽇宣布，⼴告商将能够向通过⾕歌由Gemini模型驱动的AI模式准备购买商品的消费者展示专属优惠。 AFRM/UPST/SOFI/XYZ/PYPL:MizuhoFlagsUpsidefromPotential10%APR Cap AFRM/UPST/SOFI/XYZ/PYPL：瑞穗指出潜在10%APR上限带来的上⾏空间 MizuhosaysPresidentTrumpʼscallforaone-year10%caponcreditcardAPRscouldhavemeaningfulpositiveimplicationsforBNPLandpersonalloanproviders,particularlyAFRM,UPST,SOFI,XYZ,andPYPL.Thefirmnotesacapwouldmateriallyreducetraditionalcreditcardeconomicsandlikelypushlenderstotightenstandardsforlower-FICOconsumers,redirectingdemandtowardalternativecreditproducts.WithU.S.creditcardbalancesat~$1.2Tandover50%ofconsumersbelowa745FICOthreshold,MizuhoseesapotentialvolumetailwindforBNPLandpersonalloanplatforms,translatingintorevenueupsideassumingdisciplinedunderwriting.Whilenotyetformalpolicy,thefirmviewstheproposalasaconstructivereadthroughforalternativelenderswithexposuretolower-FICOborrowers. 瑞穗表示，特朗普总统呼吁将信⽤卡年利率（APR）设定为为期⼀年的10%上限，可能会对先买后付（BNPL）和个⼈贷款提供商产⽣显著的正⾯影响，尤其是AFRM、UPST、SOFI、XYZ和PYPL。该⾏指出，这⼀上限将实质性削弱传统信⽤卡的经济性，并可能促使放贷机构收紧针对低FICO消费者的信贷标准，从⽽将需求转向替代性信贷产品。在美国信⽤卡余额约为1.2万亿美元、且超过50%的消费者FICO评分低于745的背景下，瑞穗认为BNPL和个⼈贷款平台的业务量有望获得顺⻛，若承保纪律得当，将转化为收⼊上⾏空间。尽管该提议尚未成为正式政策，瑞穗仍将其视为对涉⾜低FICO借款⼈的替代性放贷机构的积极信号。 AMZN:Hearingoneofthe3pfirmsraised#scloseto~23%forQ4AWS AMZN：听闻⼀家第三⽅（3p）公司将第四季度AWS的相关数字上调⾄接近约23% TSM:reportedlyplanstorampCoWoScapacityfromaround70kwpmbyend-2025toaround115kwpmbyend-2026,andisexpectedtograduallyrepurposeitsexisting200mmfabsintoadvancedpackagingfacilitiesinTaiwanduetoCoWoScapacityshortage-CTEE TSM：