TMTB 每日收盘总结 - TMT 突破

TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破JAN13,2026 2026年1⽉13⽇∙PAID∙付费 Goodafternoon.QQQs+8bpsslightlyuptodayafterbouncingbackafterinitiallossesgiventhePowellcriminalinvestigationnews.FedexpectsnowexpectacutinJunevs4/29.HassetandWarshremaintiedat40%forreplacingPowellaccordingtopredictionmarkets.2yearyieldwasflatasthelongendrose2-2.5bps. 下午好。受鲍威尔刑事调查消息影响，QQQ在早盘下跌后反弹，今⽇⼩幅上涨8个基点。美联储⽬前预期将在6⽉降息，⽽此前为4⽉29⽇。根据预测市场，哈塞特（Hassett）和沃什（Warsh）以40%的概率并列成为接替鲍威尔的⼈选。两年期美债收益率持平，⽽⻓端收益率上升了2–2.5个基点。 Letʼsdivestraightin: 让我们直接开始： INTERNET互联⽹ GOOGL+1%asweconfirmationtheyenteredintoamultiyeardealwithAAPLtopowerSiri.Hereʼsthejointstatement: GOOGL上涨1%，因为我们确认其已与AAPL达成⼀项多年期协议，为Siri提供⽀持。以下是联合声明： “Aftercarefulevaluation,AppledeterminedthatGoogleʼsAItechnologyprovidesthemostcapablefoundationforAppleFoundationModelsandisexcitedaboutthe innovativenewexperiencesitwillunlockforAppleusers.” “在经过审慎评估后，Apple认为Google的AI技术为AppleFoundationModels提供了最具能⼒的基础，并对其将为Apple⽤户解锁的创新新体验感到振奋。” Funda.aipointedoutthatagreementwillsubstantiallyincreaseAAPLʼsalreadysignificantTPUusageonGCP,potentiallyonscalecomparabletoAnthropicʼsdealwithGCP,butlikelyevenmoresticky. Funda.ai指出，该协议将⼤幅提升AAPL在GCP上本已相当可观的TPU使⽤量，规模可能可与Anthropic与GCP的合作相当，甚⾄可能更加“黏性”。 RBLX+5%didnʼthearanythinghereorseeanysignificantinflectioninthedatabutsentimenthadreachedanadir(tough‘26comps,GTAVIcompetition,Decdataslowing)somaybejustsomecoveringtoday.Highlevel,RBLXshouldbenefitfrombettercodingmodelsastheycanenableamassiveinfluxofnon-professionalcreatorstobuildsophisticated,high-qualitygamesthatwerepreviouslyimpossibleforthemtomake,whichallflowsthroughatnearzero-marginalcostotherthanthefeespaidouttodevelopers.Intheorythisshouldmassivelyincreasetheflywheel.Interestingspotonthechartaswellasitdippedbelowpreviousresistanceandnowbouncedbackaboveit(“falsebreakdown”).Wouldliketogetmorepositivehere(westilllikeallthelongertermdriverswewerebullishonwhenwewerelongthestocklastyear),butitsaHF/dataheavystockandthenarrativetherejustmakesittoughforustogetexcited. RBLX+5%。这⾥并没有听到什么消息，也没有在数据中看到明显的拐点，但市场情绪已跌⾄低⾕（2026年的同⽐基数艰难、GTAVI的竞争、12⽉数据放缓），所以今天可能只是⼀些回补⾏为。从更⾼层⾯看，RBLX应该会受益于更好的编程模型，因为它们能够让⼤量⾮专业创作者也能打造出以前⽆法制作的复杂、⾼质量游戏，⽽这些⼏乎都以接近零的边际成本实现，除⽀付给开发者的费⽤外没有太多额外成本。理论上，这将⼤幅增强其⻜轮效应。技术图形上也很有意思，股价⼀度跌破此前的阻⼒位，随后⼜反弹回到其上⽅（“假跌破”）。我们希望能在这⾥变得更为积极⼀些（我们仍然看好去年持有该股时所看多的所有⻓期驱动因素），但这是⼀只对对冲基⾦和数据依赖度很⾼的股票，其相关叙事让我们很难真正感到兴奋。 RDDT-22bpsasPiperpointedoutpositivechecksfromtheiradbuyerconversationsayingnewtechnology,increasingmonetization,growingaudience,addingvideohaveallcontributedtobetterperformance.MahaneyatISIinitiatedatbuyaftertheclose RDDT-22个基点，Piper指出其与⼴告买家的交流中得到积极反馈，称新技术、变现能⼒提升、⽤户规模增⻓以及增加视频内容均推动了业绩改善。ISI的Mahaney在收盘后给予买⼊评级并启动覆盖 BABA+9% VNET/GDS+9%seenasbiggestbeneficiariesfromH200s VNET/GDS+9%，被视为H200s的最⼤受益者 SHOP+2%assellsidewaspositiveontheagenticcommerceannouncements.SHOP上涨2%，因卖⽅分析师对其agenticcommerce相关公告持积极态度。 NFLXflataswelearnedthatParamountissuingWBDovertheNFLXdealsayingthatitintendedtonominatedirectorstotheWarnerBros.boardtohelpadvancethedeal NFLX股价持平，我们了解到派拉蒙正在就NFLX交易起诉WBD，称其原本计划提名董事进⼊华纳兄弟董事会，以推进该交易。 SPOT-2%continuestoactweak.GoodthreadhereinTMTBwithsomebackandforth.Thedebateherecentersaround—amongotherthings—thetensionbetweenbullishexpectationsforrevenuere-accelerationandamajorUSpricehikeversusbearishskepticismregardingthemathematicalfeasibilityofhittinggrossmargintargets.Whilebullsthink2026marginsbeatingtheStreet—drivenbypricingpowerandcompoundingadgrowth—bearsarguethatstickyroyaltyratesmakethosegoalsunrealisticandthataudioadbudgetsremainstructurallyinferiortovideo,alongwithconfusionaboutcommentaryfromIRwhetherpriceincreasewillbe$2or$1. SPOT下跌2%，⾛势持续疲弱。TMTB上有⼀条不错的讨论帖，双⽅有来有往。争论的核⼼在于⸺除其他因素外⸺⼀⽅⾯是对收⼊重新加速以及美国⼤幅提价的看多预期，另⼀⽅⾯是对实现⽑利率⽬标在数学上是否可⾏的看空质疑。多头认为，定价权以及⼴告业务的复利式增⻓将推动2026年利润率超越市场预期；⽽空头则认为，居⾼不下的版税率使这些⽬标不切实际，同时⾳频⼴告预算在结构上仍弱于视频，此外，投资者关系（IR）⽅⾯关于涨价幅度究竟是2美元还是1美元的表述也存在混乱。 DUOL-9%afterannouncingCFotransitionandprelimQ4resultsshowingDAUgrowthof30%,inlinwithstreetbuta6pptsdecelfromQ3whilebookingsaretrackingatorslightlyabovehighendofguide.Theweakgetweaker. DUOL在宣布CFO交接以及发布Q4初步业绩后股价下跌9%。数据显示DAU同⽐增⻓30%，与市场预期⼀致，但较Q3放缓了6个百分点；同时，预订收⼊的⾛势处于或略⾼于指引区间的上限。弱者愈弱。 ROKU-40bpsdespiteBofAraisingPTandsayingCY27couldbe$1Bvsstreetat~$785M ROKU尽管美银上调了⽬标价，并表示到CY27可能达到10亿美元（⽽市场⼀致预期约为7.85亿美元），但股价仍下跌40个基点 AMZN-40bpsabitheavygiventheGOOGLagenticpartnershipwithWMT,SHOPetc.despitea3pfirmraisingAWSnumberscloseto23%forQ4 AMZN下跌40个基点，考虑到GOOGL与WMT、SHOP等的代理式合作关系，这⼀表现略显疲软，尽管⼀家第三⽅机构将AWS的第四季度数据上调⾄接近23% META-1.7%didnʼtseemuchhearmuchhereotherthanthempanningtocut10%ofrealitylabsunitstaffandhiringanewPresidentAllyMcCormick,aTrump ally META下跌1.7%，这边并没有看到或听到太多新消息，除了他们计划裁减RealityLabs部⻔10%的员⼯，并任命特朗普盟友AllyMcCormick为新任总裁 WIX-4%tonewlowsasnoonewantstobelongwebdevelopersasbettercodingmodelscanmakebetterandbetterwebpageseasily.Base44(“vibe-coding”)wasthebullcasebutsentimenthasshiftedmorenegativelythinkingwrappersfacebiggerthreatfromfrontiermodelsastheyexpandfromsimplecodegeneratorsintoagentscapableofplanning,architecting,anddeployingmulti-fileprojects. WIX下跌4%创出新低，因为在更优秀的代码模型能够轻松制作越来越好的⽹⻚的情况下，没有⼈愿