TMTB 收盘总结

DEC03,2025 2025年12⽉3⽇∙PAID∙付费内容TMTBREAKOUT科技媒体通信板块异动 QQQs+80bpscontinuingtogrindupasBTC+6%madeacomebacktogetbackabove$90k.Semisledthewayhigher,butthistimeitwasbecauseofAnalogsandINTC.Fromafactorperspective,priceactionfavoredqualityandestablishedgrowthstoriestoday,withthe“ProfitableSecularGrowth”basket(+1.8%)significantlyoutperforming“Non-ProfitableTech”(+1.2%)and“HighShortInterest”baskets(-1%).WhilethebroaderSoftwaresectorwasup(+0.9%),theperformancewasdominatedbyidiosyncraticwinnersratherthanarisingtidewithMDBthestaroftheday,ripping+22%,likelyactingasacatalystforsentimentinthe“ExpensiveSoftware”basket(+1.1%). QQQ指数上涨80个基点持续攀升，同时⽐特币⼤涨6%重返9万美元上⽅。半导体板块领涨⼤盘，但这次主要受模拟芯⽚和英特尔(INTC)推动。从因⼦⻆度来看，今⽇价格⾛势更⻘睐优质股和成熟成⻓型标的，"盈利确定性增⻓"篮⼦(+1.8%)⼤幅跑赢"未盈利科技股"篮⼦(+1.2%)和"⾼做空兴趣"篮⼦(-1%)。虽然整个软件板块上涨(+0.9%)，但涨幅主要由个股推动⽽⾮普涨⾏情，其中MDB以22%的惊⼈涨幅成为今⽇明星，很可能成为"昂贵软件股"篮⼦(+1.1%)情绪回暖的催化剂。 WesentoutsomequotesfromsomepresentationsatUBShereandhere. 我们在瑞银发布会的这两个链接中分享了⼀些演讲引述。 Letʼsgettoit…开始今⽇内容... INTERNET互联⽹板块 SHOP+5%astheycameoutsayingBFCMfinished+27%.Recall,yesterdaytheysaidnumberwas25%andstocksoldoff5%sostockbouncedbackontheupdatednumbers,althoughbullswillsaythatʼslightofthe30s+3pcurrent trackingatandbullshopingfor. SHOP股价上涨5%，因其宣布⿊五⽹⼀(BFCM)销售额同⽐增27%。需注意的是，昨⽇该公司公布的增幅为25%导致股价下挫5%，因此今⽇股价反弹是基于数据上调，不过多头仍会指出当前第三⽅跟踪数据显示30%+的增速预期，市场原本期待更⾼涨幅。 META+1%asISIhadapositivenoteonWhatsapp,sayingitʼsabusinesscapableofgenerating$40Binrevenueby2030androughly$20Binoperatingincome,or$7.15inEPScontribution.ISIraiseditsout-yearestimates,with2027revenueandEPSnow2%and12%aboveStreet. Meta上涨1%，因ISI发布了对WhatsApp的乐观报告，称其到2030年有望创造400亿美元营收和约200亿美元运营利润，折合每股收益贡献7.15美元。ISI上调了远期预测，预计2027年营收和每股收益将分别⽐市场共识⾼出2%和12%。 AMZN+23bpsasRe:inventturnedouttobeabitofadud.MainannouncementwasAWSannouncingtheywilladoptNVLinkFusioninTrn4.Separately,AmazonsaiditisrollingoutnewserversbasedonachipcalledTrainium3.Thenewservers,availableonTuesday,eachcontain144chipsandhavemorethanfourtimesthecomputingpowerofAWSʼspreviousgenerationofAI,whileusing40%lesspower.Allinall,bitofanothingburger.WellsFargowasalsooutsayingAWSʼsplantodoubleglobalcomputecapacityto24GWbyYE27couldaddroughly$150Binincrementalannualizedrevenue.WFraisedʼ26/ʼ27AWSrevenueestsby~2%/3%.Somepointedouttheultra-fastdeliveriesofgroceriesannouncementmightrequireadditionalinvestmentasAMZNmovesintoCART-3%territory 亚⻢逊微涨23个基点，re:Invent⼤会反响平平。主要公告是AWS宣布将在Trn4芯⽚中采⽤NVLinkFusion技术。此外，亚⻢逊表示将推出基于Trainium3芯⽚的新服务器，这批周⼆上市的服务器每组包含144颗芯⽚，算⼒达到AWS前代AI产品的四倍以上，同时功耗降低40%。总体⽽⾔亮点有限。富国银⾏指出，AWS计划到2027年底将全球计算能⼒翻倍⾄24GW，可能带来约1500亿美元的年化增量收⼊，并将2026/2027年AWS营收预期上调约2%/3%。有分析师指出，其⽣鲜极速配送服务的扩展可能导致额外投⼊，此时亚⻢逊股价已进⼊购物⻋概念股下跌3%的区间。 DASH+5%nicefollowthroughafterAlfredLinʼsinsiderbuyyesterdayDoorDash延续昨⽇AlfredLin内部增持的利好，今⽇上涨5% CHWY-3.5%asBofAremovedfromtheirUS1List.Chewy下跌3.5%，因被美银移出"美国⾸选股"名单。 AI/SEMIS⼈⼯智能/半导体板块 AnalogsoutperformingAIcomplextodaywithNXPI+8%;TXN+4%;ADI+2.5%asMCHP+6%raisedtheirguideafter-hoursandNXPIsoundedgoodatUBS. 模拟芯⽚今⽇表现优于AI概念股：恩智浦(NXPI)涨8%，德州仪器(TXN)涨4%，亚德诺(ADI)涨2.5%；微芯科技(MCHP)盘后因上调业绩指引涨6%，且恩智浦在瑞银活动中释放积极信号 MU-40bpsonAsiannewsaroundSamsungrampingHBMproduction,althoughwasnʼtreallynew.SamsungIRataMSeventtalkedaboutaveryconservativesupplystrategywithfocusonLTprofitsvsexpansiontogainshare,withagoalofreducingoversupplyrisk 美光(MU)微跌0.4%⸺尽管三星扩⼤HBM产能的亚洲消息并⾮新闻，但三星投资者关系部⻔在摩根⼠丹利活动上表态将采⽤保守供应策略，侧重⻓期利润⽽⾮份额扩张，旨在降低供应过剩⻛险 ALAB-12%ontheAMZN NVLinkfusionannouncementasbullshopingTrainiumwasabigsourceofupside,Notsuperclosetothename,sohavenʼtgotaclearexplanationofwhythedoubledigitselloffasALABhastalkedaboutsupportingNVLinkFusion.Barclaysanalyst:““T4,Graviton,andElasticFabicAdaptor(EFA)willalsosupportNVDA NVLinkFusiontoallowrack-scaleAIinfrastructurethatrunsbothGPUandTrainiumservers.ThisisanegativeforALAB,inourview,asthecompanyisopeningthedoorforscale-upwithNVDA.”…Sobearishread-throughistheriseofNVLinkFusionposesalong-termthreattoALABʼscorebizasitcannibalizestheirhighmarginofftheshelfPCEeretimers.Ifyouhavemorethoughtshere,letmeknow. 阿尔特拉(ALAB)重挫12%⸺因亚⻢逊宣布⽀持NVLinkFusion技术，此前多头期待其Trainium芯⽚能带来重⼤增⻓。虽公司曾表态⽀持该技术，但巴克莱分析师认为："T4/Graviton/EFA适配器⽀持英伟达NVLinkFusion构建GPU与Trainium服务器的机架级AI基础设施，这对ALAB构成利空，因其向英伟达的规模化扩展敞开了⼤⻔"...核⼼看空逻辑在于NVLinkFusion技术可能⻓期侵蚀ALAB⾼利润的现成PCIe重定时器业务。若有补充观点欢迎探讨 AMD-2%asbullswereplayingforsomesortofannouncementatre:invent AMD下跌2%，因多头期待在re:invent⼤会上会有某种公告发布 TER+5%asStifelupgradedtobuysayingtheyseeclearaccelerationbeginningin2026,drivenbyamorefavorablemixshiftinthecompanyʼstestbusiness. TER上涨5%，Stifel将其评级上调⾄买⼊，称预计2026年公司将开始明显加速增⻓，这得益于公司测试业务的结构性优化 TSM+1.5%asEdgewaterwaspositivesayingTSMtellingsuppliers/customersleadingedgenodessoldoutforCY26,supplyexpectedtogetworsein2Hʼ26.MSwasalsooutsaying2026risingto140-150kwpm,supportedbyAZphase-2outputanda4/5nmconversion,yetstillinsufficientforcustomerslikeNVDA,AMD,andAlchipstrugglingtosecurewaferallotments.AllroadsleadtoTSM 台积电上涨1.5%，Edgewater持乐观态度，表示台积电告知供应商/客户其先进制程节点在2026年的产能已被预订⼀空，预计2026年下半年供应将更加紧张。摩根⼠丹利也指出，2026年产能将提升⾄每⽉140-150千⽚晶圆，得益于亚利桑那州⼆期⼯⼚投产及4/5纳⽶制程转换，但仍⽆法满⾜英伟达、AMD和智原等客户争夺晶圆产能的需求。万流归宗台积电 BE+6%:Hearingcompanysoundingg