TMTB EOD Wrap TMT 收盘综述：TMT 突围

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突围NOV 06, 20252025年11⽉06⽇∙PAID∙已付费 Good afternoon.QQQs +65bpsstaging a bit of a comeback after yesterday’s big redday after media reports signaled a potential shutdown deal by the weekend, SupremeCourt justices expressed skepticism about the White House’s IEEPA tariffs.BTC+3.6%. 下午好。QQQ上涨65个基点，在昨天⼤幅下跌之后出现⼩幅回升，此前媒体报道暗示可能在周末达成停摆协议，最⾼法院⼤法官对⽩宫依据《国际紧急经济权⼒法》（IEEPA）征收关税表示怀疑。⽐特币上涨3.6%。 A couple AI articles hit near the end of the day, which seemed to coincide with a lateafternoon swoon in some AI stocks, NVDA in particular.First, This WSJ articlewhereCFO said IPO is not in the cards and hopes the federal gov’t might backstop thefinancing of future data-center deals: ⼀天结束前出现了⼏篇关于⼈⼯智能的⽂章，似乎与部分AI股票在下午晚些时候的下挫同时发⽣，尤其是NVDA。⾸先，这篇华尔街⽇报的⽂章中⾸席财务官表示IPO不在计划内，并希望联邦政府可能为未来数据中⼼交易的融资提供⽀持： “This is where we’re looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even governmental, the ways governments can come to bear,” she said. Any suchguarantee “can really drop the cost of the financing but also increase the loan-to-value, so the amount of debt you can take on top of an equity portion.” “这就是我们在寻找的⸺由银⾏、私募股权，甚⾄可能是政府参与的⽣态系统，政府可以发挥作⽤的⽅式，”她说。任何此类担保“确实可以⼤幅降低融资成本，同时提⾼贷款价值⽐率，即在股权部分之上你可以承担的债务额度。” Friar isn’t the type of CFO to randomly talk about something — my guess isdiscussions are taking place with the US Gov and this is a PR effort to begin to swayopinion. Would the US Gov pull the trigger with stocks at highs or wait until a swoon inAI stocks to step in? Friar不是那种会随便谈论某事的财务官⸺我猜与美政府正在进⾏讨论，⽽这是⼀个开始影响舆论的公关举措。美政府会在股票⾼位时出⼿，还是等到AI股票下挫时才介⼊？ FT then had anarticlequoting Jensen saying China “will win” AI race with US: FT随后刊⽂引⽤Jensen的话称中国“将赢得”与美国的⼈⼯智能之争： Huang singled out new rules on AI by US states that could result in “50 newregulations”. He contrasted that approach with Chinese energy subsidies that madeit more affordable for local tech companies to run Chinese alternatives to Nvidia’sAI chips. “Power is free,” he said. ⻩某（Huang）特别指出美国各州出台的新⼈⼯智能规则可能会导致“50项新法规”。他将这种做法与中国的能源补贴进⾏对⽐，后者使得本地科技公司运⾏中国版的Nvidia⼈⼯智能芯⽚更具经济性。“电⼒是免费的，”他说。 Despite AI demand datapoints which continue to be very strong — and many AI stocks continue hitting all-time highs— definitely feels like AI vibes have taken a bit of a steplower following a very hot summer/early fall.Investors are asking“what’s next?”after acouple of months where back-to-back-to-back AI deals were front and center almostevery day; hyperscale capex & Jensen’s “0.5T” are now behind us as well. AI bulls stillvery much in control, just sensing a tad bit of chg at the margins in conversations withother investors. 尽管⼈⼯智能需求的数据点仍然⾮常强劲⸺许多⼈⼯智能股票继续创下历史新⾼⸺但在经历了⼀个极为⽕热的夏季/初秋之后，⼈⼯智能的热度确实感觉有所降温。在连续数⽉⼏乎每天都有接连不断的⼈⼯智能交易成为焦点之后，投资者在问“下⼀步是什么？”；超⼤规模资本⽀出与Jensen所说的“0.5T”如今也已成为过去。⼈⼯智能的多头仍然掌控局⾯，只是在与其他投资者的讨论中感觉到边际上的些许变化。 The sentiment doesn’t seem to be seeping into stocks yet, however, although we’reseeing more discrimination in terms of stock picking within AI: investors are preferringcertain areas which continue to outperform. Current favorites:memory/HDDs(pricingskyrocketing/most upside to NT numbers),power/DCs(biggest bottleneck/potentialfor deals),TPUs ramping(CLS, AVGO, LITE). Just look at the price action today withBE +10%, MU +9%; SNDK +12%; STX +11%; WDC +5%; CLS +5%; LITE 25%;VRT 5%leading AI names higher. Next catalysts on the AI docket are AMD 11/11Analyst day, NVDA’s print on 11/18, and the RBC Conference on 11/19 where investorsexpect MU to pre-announce. 情绪似乎尚未渗透到整体股票市场，不过在AI相关个股选择上我们确实看到更多的分化：投资者更偏好持续跑赢的⼤类。当前热⻔：存储/硬盘（价格暴涨/对NT业绩上⾏空间最⼤）、电源/数据中⼼（最⼤瓶颈/存在交易机会）、TPU放量（CLS、AVGO、LITE）。看今⽇价格⾛势就知道，BE+10%、MU +9%；SNDK +12%；STX +11%；WDC +5%；CLS+5%；LITE +25%；VRT +5%等AI概念股⾛⾼。AI⽇程上的下⼀个催化剂是AMD 11/11的分析师⽇、NVDA 11/18的财报，以及投资者预计MU将在11/19的RBC会议上进⾏业绩预告。 Lots of earnings post-close - sent some first takes out earlierhere 收盘后有⼤量财报发布⸺我之前在这⾥发过⼀些初步看法 INTERNET互联⽹ AMZN 35bps:TheInformation had an article out yesterday talking up Anthropicrevenue expectations, which is good news for AWS: AMZN 35bps：TheInformation昨⽇发表⼀篇⽂章，上调了对Anthropic收⼊的预期，这对AWS是个利好消息： Anthropic this summerhiked its most optimistic growth forecasts by roughly 13%to 28% over the next three years and projected generating as much as$70 billion inrevenue in 2028, up from close to$5 billion this year, according to a person withknowledge of the company’s financials. Anthropic is gaining share in the Enterprisemarket with an API business roughly double the size of OpenAI ($3.8B vs$1.8B).Anthropic expects enterprise sales will continue to generate over 80% of revenuethrough 2028. 据⼀位知悉公司财务情况的⼈⼠透露，Anthropic今年夏天将其最乐观的增⻓预测在未来三年内上调了约13%⾄28%，并预计到2028年收⼊最⾼可达700亿美元，⽽今年接近50亿美元。Anthropic在企业市场中正在扩⼤份额，其API业务规模约为OpenAI的两倍（38亿美元对18亿美元）。Anthropic预计企业销售将继续在2028年前占据超过80%的收⼊。 MS Asia also saying that their supply chain checks show Trn3 volume in ‘26 remains1.2-1.8M, with half from AiChip and other half AMZN in house and recent checkssuggesting ASP could be 4-5k vs prev assumption of 3k MS亚洲也表示，其供应链检查显示2026年Trn3产量仍保持在1.2-1.8M，约⼀半来⾃AiChip，另⼀半由AMZN⾃⾏⽣产，最近的检查