TMTB 收盘总结：科技媒体通信板块异动

TMTBREAKOUT科技媒体通信板块异动DEC16,2025 2025年12⽉16⽇∙PAID∙付费内容 QQQs-50bps/SPY15bps/IWM-75bpsaslotsofredfilledthescreentostartwhatisthelastnon-holidayweekoftheyear.Fromconversationswithinvestors,manyarealreadyrunninglowergrossintoyearend,effectivelycallingitayear,whileothersdonʼtwanttoputonanylargebetsonbeforetheholidays. QQQ指数下跌0.50%/标普500微跌0.15%/罗素2000下挫0.75%，满屏飘红开启了本年最后⼀个⾮假期交易周。从与投资者的交流来看，许多⼈已降低年末仓位规模提前鸣⾦收兵，另⼀些则不愿在节前押注⼤额头⼨。 Techfeltrisk-offandfragmented:highbeat/specledthewaylower:Quantum-4%,Non-profitableTech-4%,andHighinterestshortbaskets-3.5%.MegaCap/GARPfactorsoutperformed.InSw,SecuritySW(-2.5%)/ExpensiveSW(-2.6%)ledthewaylowerwithNOW-11.5%themaindragaftertheirArmisacquisition.SemiswereonlymildlyweakwiththeSOX-0.6%helpedbyNVDA+75bpsandanalognameswhilesomeofthespecnamesfellMSD(BE-6%;NBIS/CRWV-8%,ARM-5%)aspriceactionoverallstilldidnʼtfeelgreat.ItʼsbeenabittougherthannormalfindingaclearbiggerpicturepatternofwhatandwhythingsareworkingonanygivendayoverthelastfewweeksandalowliquidityenvironmenttheweekbeforeChristmaswonʼthelpthings. 科技板块呈现⻛险规避式分化：⾼估值/投机属性标的领跌⸺Quantum指数下跌4%、⾮盈利科技股跌4%、⾼息空头篮⼦跌3.5%。巨型市值/GARP因⼦个股相对抗跌。软件板块中，安全软件(-2.5%)/⾼价软件(-2.6%)领跌，ServiceNow收购Armis后暴跌11.5%成为主要拖累。半导体板块仅⼩幅⾛弱，费城半导体指数跌0.6%⸺英伟达涨0.75%与模拟芯⽚个股形成⽀撑，部分投机标的出现中个位数下跌(BE跌6%；NBIS/CRWV跌8%，ARM跌5%)，整体价格⾛势仍显疲态。近⼏周较难辨明⽇间⾏情涨跌的内在逻辑模式，⽽圣诞前⼀周的低流动性环境将使局⾯更趋复杂。 Letʼsgettoit…开始今⽇内容... AI/SEMIS⼈⼯智能/半导体板块 AVGO-5.5%wasthemainfocusformanywithlotsifinvestorsquestioningwhythelarge-17%moveafterearningsandwhetheritʼsoverdoneornot.Themultiplewasdefinitelypricednearperfectandyouhadanot-sogreatearningscallfromCEO HockTanalthoughmgmt(includinghim)havebeenmakingtheroundswithsell-sideoncallbacksandsoundinggood(YoucanseeUBSʼrecaphere).InvestorsarestillhopingforclearerdetailonAIbacklogandatighter/rinsedrackscalemarginnarrative.SomeascribedtheextraweaknesstodaytothenewsovernightoutofAsiaclaimingMediaTekstartstrialproductionofTPUv7einC1Q26andispositionedtowinTPUv8e,withimpliedMediaTekCoWoSwaferdemandof~20kinʼ26and~150kinʼ27.OthersblamedtheNDXreconstitutiononFriday.Stockwasatitshighsgoingintotheprint,somaybejustassimpleassomesellthenewsto“catchdown”toNVDAwhichhasbasicallybeenflatsinceSeptdespiteagreatprintaswell.Idonʼtgetthesenseinmyconversationsthatanylong-termbullsareleavingthestockwithmanyjustquestioningwhenexactlytostepin.Stockbottomedaround20x2yrfwdP/EbackduringtheTariffscareinApril.20x$15+FY27EPS#getsyouto$300+downside,whichis~10%dnfrom here.Doesnʼtsoundtoobad. 博通(AVGO)股价下跌5.5%成为市场焦点，众多投资者在质疑为何财报后出现⾼达17%的暴跌，以及这波抛售是否过度。其估值原本已近乎完美定价，加之CEO陈福阳在财报电话会上的表现不尽如⼈意（尽管包括他在内的管理层近期持续与卖⽅机构进⾏回调路演，反响不错，详⻅瑞银复盘报告）。投资者仍期待更清晰的AI订单积压数据，以及更有说服⼒的机架级利润率叙事。部分分析师将今⽇额外疲软归因于亚洲传出消息⸺联发科将在2026年第⼀季度试产TPUv7e芯⽚，并有望拿下TPUv8e订单，预估其2026年CoWoS晶圆需求约2万⽚，2027年将增⾄15万⽚。也有⼈指责周五纳斯达克100指数成分调整的影响。该股在财报发布前处于⾼位，或许单纯是部分资⾦"获利了结"让其⾛势向英伟达看⻬⸺尽管英伟达财报同样亮眼，但股价⾃9⽉以来基本持平。从对话中我并未感受到⻓期看涨者在撤离，更多⼈只是在探讨何时才是抄底良机。回溯4⽉关税恐慌时期，该股底部曾触及20倍两年远期市盈率。按照当前20倍2027财年15美元以上的每股收益计算，下⾏⻛险为300美元以上，约⽐当前⽔平低10%。听起来并不算太糟。 NVDA+75bpsasReutersreportedNVDAconsideringincreasingH200chipoutputduetorobustChinaDemand 英伟达股价上涨75个基点，路透社报道称由于中国市场需求强劲，英伟达正考虑增加H200芯⽚产量 LITE+3%/COHR+6bpsoutperformedasGSraisedopticalestimates.GSexpectsasharpshiftfrom400Gto800Gin2026and1.6Tin2027,liftingASPsandexpandingtheopticaltransceiverTAMto~$24B/$30B/$37Bin2025/26/27,with800G+growingatan~87%CAGR.TheirAsiacheckshighlightedscale-upnetworksastheprimarydrivertoday,withscale-outandscale-acrossbeginningtocontribute,whilesiliconphotonicspenetrationrisesmateriallyathigherspeeds., Lumentum上涨3%/Coherent上涨6个基点表现优异，⾼盛上调光通信板块预期。⾼盛预计2026年将出现从400G向800G的急剧转变，2027年将转向1.6T，这将提⾼产品均价（ASP）并将光模块总⽬标市场规模（TAM）扩⼤⾄2025/26/27年约240亿/300亿/370亿美元，800G以上产品年复合增⻓率约87%。⾼盛的亚洲调研显示，⽬前扩展式⽹络是主要驱动⼒，分布式和跨域式⽹络开始贡献⼒量，同时硅光⼦技术在更⾼速率领域的渗透率显著提升。 Spec/highbetanamesweaker:QuantumIONQ-9%/RGTI-9%,BE-6%,NBIS/CRWV-8% 投机性/⾼⻉塔个股⾛弱：量⼦计算公司IonQ跌9%/Rigetti跌9%，BloomEnergy跌6%，Nubis/CorWave均跌8% ARM-5%asGSdowngradedtoSellcitingheavysmartphoneroyaltyexposureandlocked-inratesthatlimitcyclicalleverage.GSalsoflaggedrisingR&Dspendandstrategicuncertaintyamidintensifyingcompetition,withSoftBankʼsmajority ownershipconstrainingfloat. ARM下跌5%，⾼盛将其评级下调⾄卖出，指出该公司对智能⼿机版税收⼊依赖过重，且固定费率限制了周期性杠杆。⾼盛还提到，随着竞争加剧，研发⽀出上升和战略不确定性增加，软银的控股地位限制了流通股数量。 TER+70bpsasGSdoubleupgradedtoBuycitingacceleratingAI-drivendemandinsemiconductortestthatshouldoffsetongoingmobileandautoweaknessandsaidtheyseepotentialupsidefromaMerchantGPUtestwinexpandingTAMin2H26 TER上涨70个基点，⾼盛将其评级双级上调⾄买⼊，理由是⼈⼯智能驱动的半导体测试需求加速增⻓，应能抵消当前移动和汽⻋领域的疲软，并称看到潜在上⾏空间，因赢得商⽤GPU测试订单将在2026年下半年扩⼤市场总规模。 SNDK-2%despitesomepositiveGScheckscallingouta2ndhyperscalercontractatGOOGLandsomepositiveEdge/ClevchecksasthereareincreasingsignsofdemanddestructioninPC/smartphonesgivenhighprices SNDK下跌2%，尽管⾼盛的⼀些积极调查显示⾕歌签订了第⼆份超⼤规模合同，且⼀些边缘/客户端设备检查结果积极，但由于价格⾼企，个⼈电脑/智能⼿机需求破坏的迹象⽇益增多。 Analogso/pʼdtodaywithNXPI+1.6%,ADI+40bps,ON+25bps.TXN-80bpsthelaggedonaGSdowngradetoSell 模拟芯⽚今⽇表现优异，恩智浦上涨1.6%，亚德诺上涨40个基点，安森美上涨25个基点。德州仪器下跌80个基点，表现落后，因⾼盛将其评级下调⾄卖出。 ANET+1%asBofAreiteratedbuyaftermeetingswithCFOwheretheycameawaymoreconstructive,highlightings