TMTB早间简报：科技媒体通信板块异动

TMTBREAKOUT科技媒体通信板块异动DEC15,2025 2025年12⽉15⽇∙PAID∙付费内容 Goodmorning.Futures+56bpstostarttheweek.BTC+1%hoveringaround90k.Yieldsdown1-2bpsacrossthecurve.AsianstocksmainlydownovernightplayingcatchuptoU.S.mktonFriday:TPX+0.22%,NKY-1.31%,HangSeng-1.34%,HSCEI-1.78%,SHCOMP-0.55%,Shenzhen-0.77%,TaiwanTAIEX-1.17%,KoreaKOSPI-1.84%. 早安。本周伊始期货上涨56个基点。⽐特币上涨1%徘徊在9万美元附近。收益率曲线整体下移1-2个基点。亚洲股市隔夜多数下跌，补跌上周五美股⾛势：东证指数+0.22%、⽇经指数-1.31%、恒⽣指数-1.34%、国企指数-1.78%、上证综指-0.55%、深证成指-0.77%、台湾加权指数-1.17%、韩国综合指数-1.84%。 Lotstogetto,soletʼsgettoit… 要事诸多，即刻启程... NVDA:NvidiaconsidersincreasingH200chipoutputduetorobustChinademand,sourcessay 英伟达考虑因中国强劲需求⽽提⾼H200芯⽚产量（消息⼈⼠称） Reuters:路透社： NvidiahastoldChineseclientsitisevaluatingaddingproductioncapacityforitspowerfulH200AIchipsafterordersexceededitscurrentoutputlevel,accordingtotwosourcesbriefedonthematter. 英伟达已告知中国客户，由于订单超出当前产能⽔平，公司正在评估增加其⾼性能H200⼈⼯智能芯⽚的产能⸺据两位知情⼈⼠透露。 ThemovecomesafterU.S.PresidentDonaldTrumpsaidonTuesdaytheU.S.governmentwouldallowNvidiatoexportH200processors,itssecond-fastestAI chips,toChinaandcollecta25%feeonsuchsales. 此前美国总统特朗普于周⼆表示，美国政府将允许英伟达向中国出⼝其第⼆快的AI芯⽚H200处理器，并对该类销售征收25%的费⽤。 NOW:ServiceNowNearsUpto$7BillionDealforArmis 即时新闻：ServiceNow即将以70亿美元收购Armis Bloomberg:彭博社报道： ServiceNowInc.isinadvancedtalkstobuythecybersecuritystartupArmisinadealthatmaybevaluedatasmuchas$7billionandwouldrepresentthetechcompanyʼslargestacquisitiontodate. IT服务管理公司ServiceNowInc.正处于收购⽹络安全初创企业Armis的深⼊谈判阶段，这笔交易估值可能⾼达70亿美元，将成为该公司历史上最⼤规模的收购案。 Adealmaybeannouncedinthecomingdays,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththesituation,askingnottobeidentifiedbecausethetalksareprivate.Whilediscussionsareadvanced,theymaystillfallapartoranotherpotentialbiddermayemerge,thepeoplesaid. 据知情⼈⼠透露，交易可能在未来⼏天内宣布。由于谈判属保密内容，这些⼈⼠要求匿名。他们表示，虽然谈判已进⼊后期阶段，但仍可能破裂或出现其他潜在竞购者。 Bearslouderthismorninginthebullvs.beardebate.Bullsseeaclean“secure-the-workflow”adjacency:Armisʼreal-timecyberexposure/assetvisibilityacrossIT+OT+IoTcanfeedrichercontextintoServiceNowSecOps+riskworkflows,improvingprioritizationandspeedingremediation.WithArmisciting>$300M ARR(upfrom$200Minunder12months),NOWʼsenterprisedistributioncouldaccelerateArmisgrowthwhilecreatingmeaningfulcross-sell/up-sellandexpandingNOWʼssecurityTAM. 今⽇早间多空博弈中空⽅声量更⼤。多⽅认为这是清晰的"⼯作流安全"战略延伸：Armis可实时监控IT+OT+IoT领域⽹络⻛险与资产可视化，为ServiceNow安全运维及⻛险⼯作流提供更丰富的上下⽂，从⽽优化优先级并加速漏洞修复。Armis宣称年度经常性收⼊突破3亿美元（12个⽉内从2亿美元快速增⻓），借助ServiceNow的企业分销渠道既可加速Armis增⻓，⼜能创造可观交叉销售/向上销售机会，同时扩展ServiceNow在安全领域的可触达市场空间 Bearsfocusonprice/execution:a~$7Btakeoutisroughlya~15%premiumtoArmisʼ$6.1Bpre-IPOroundandimplies~23xARRon~$300M+ARR—toughtounderwrite withoutflawlessintegrationandsustainedhyper-growth.ItalsopullsNOWfurtherintoacrowdedcybermarket(andsignals“coreismaturing/weneednewadjacencies”),whilelayeringanothermajorintegrationeffortontopofthe$2.85B Moveworksdealthatwasexpectedtoclosein2H25 空头聚焦价格/执⾏⼒：约70亿美元的收购价相对Armis公司61亿美元IPO前轮融资溢价约15%，按3亿多美元年度经常性收⼊计算估值达23倍⸺若⽆法实现完美整合与持续超⾼速增⻓则难以⽀撑。此举还将把ServiceNow进⼀步拖⼊拥挤的⽹络安全市场（暗示"核⼼业务趋于成熟/亟需新增⻓点"），并在预计2025年下半年完成的28.5亿美元收购Moveworks交易基础上，⼜叠加⼀项重⼤整合⼯程 NOW:KeyBancDowngradestoUnderweight,Sets$775PTonSeatRiskandAI Competition NOW：KeyBanc因席位收费⻛险及AI竞争下调⾄"低配"，⽬标价775美元 KeyBancsaysitisdowngradingServiceNowtoUnderweightwitha$775pricetarget,pointingtosofteningITback-officeemploymenttrendsthatraisetheriskofseat-basedpressureandagrowing“at-risk-from-AI”narrative.ThefirmnotesthatwhileServiceNowʼshybridmonetizationstructuremayhelpoffsetsomeheadwinds,similarframeworkshavenotshieldedotherSaaSnamesinpastcycles.KeyBancaddsthatServiceNowʼsperceivedleadinAIorchestrationcoulderodeinto2026asMicrosoftʼscompetitivefootprintexpands.Whilegovernmentspendingconcernsappearlessacuteandbroaderenterprisedemandisimproving,thefirmarguesvaluationremainspremiumandrisk-rewardhasturnedlessfavorable. KeyBanc将ServiceNow评级下调⾄"低配"，⽬标价775美元，指出IT后台就业趋势疲软增加了基于席位收费模式的压⼒，且"受AI威胁"的市场讨论⽇趋升温。该机构表示，尽管ServiceNow的混合变现结构可能缓解部分阻⼒，但类似框架在以往周期中并未保护其他SaaS企业。KeyBanc补充道，随着微软竞争版图扩张，ServiceNow在AI编排领域的perceived领先优势到2026年可能逐渐消退。虽然政府⽀出担忧有所缓和且企业需求整体改善，但该机构认为当前估值仍处⾼位，⻛险回报⽐趋向不利。 TSLA:RobotaxisseenwithoutmonitorinAustin-linkTSLA：奥斯汀现⽆⼈监控的Robotaxi（链接） TER:GS DblUpgradestoBuy,RaisesPTto$230onAITestUpside 泰瑞达：⾼盛双重上调评级⾄买⼊，基于AI测试增⻓潜⼒将⽬标价提⾄230美元 GoldmanSachsupgradesTeradynetoBuyfromSellwitha$230pricetarget,citingacceleratingAI-drivendemandinsemiconductortestthatshouldoffsetongoingmobileandautoweakness.GShighlightsstrengthinVIPcompute,networking,andmemory,withDRAM/HBMrevenueexpectedtoinflectin2026,andseespotentialupsidefromaMerchantGPUtestwinexpandingTAMin2H26.ThefirmraisesFY26/FY27EPSestimatesby9%/11%,viewingtherisk-rewardasincreasinglyattractive. ⾼盛将泰瑞达评级从卖出上调⾄买⼊，⽬标价230美元，理由是⼈⼯智能驱动的半导体测试需求加速将抵消当前移动和汽⻋领域的疲软。⾼盛指出计算、⽹络和存储器领域的强劲表现，预计DRAM/HBM收⼊将在2026年反弹，并认为26年下半年商⽤GPU测试订单可能带来潜在上升空间从⽽扩⼤市场规模。该投⾏将26/27财年每股收益预期分别上调9%/11%，认为当前⻛险回报⽐极具吸引⼒。 SNDK:GSoutsayingtheirchecksshowSNDKhaswona2ndhyperscalercontractatGOOGLforeSSDs,whichwillrampin1Hʼ26andpotentiallyexceeditsinitialcustomer(META)involume 闪迪(SNDK)：⾼盛发布报告称其调研显示闪迪已赢得⾕歌第⼆份企业级固态硬盘(eSSD)合约，将于2026年上半年放量⽣产，出货量可能超越其初始客户Meta NAND/