TMTB 早间简报

DEC08,2025 2025年12⽉08⽇∙PAID∙付费TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破 Goodmorning.QQQs+35bpsstartingtheweekhigheraswegetclosertonewhighs.Asianmarketsmixedovernight:NKY+0.2%,HangSeng-1.2%,SHCOMP+0.5%,TAIEX+1.1%,KOSPI+1.3%,India-0.8%.MemorynameshigherKioxia+7.7%,Phison/Nanya+7%,Hynix+5.7%onsomepositiveAsianpress(below).BTC+1.5%.AInamesleadingthewayhigherwithoptical(COHR/LITE+4-5%)particularlystrongasinvestorinterestinthesectorcontinuestorise.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 早上好。QQQ本周开盘上涨35个基点，随着我们接近新⾼⾛⾼。亚市隔夜表现分化：NKY+0.2%，恒⽣指数-1.2%，上证综指+0.5%，台股加权+1.1%，韩国综合股价指数+1.3%，印度-0.8%。存储类个股上涨，Kioxia+7.7%，Phison/Nanya+7%，海⼒⼠+5.7%，因部分亚洲媒体报道偏利好（⻅下⽂）。⽐特币+1.5%。⼈⼯智能题材领涨，光学类（COHR/LITE+4-5%）表现尤为强劲，因投资者对该板块的兴趣持续上升。 IBMacquiringCFLTfor$31/share. IBM以每股31美元收购CFLT。 WegetEPSreportsADBE/CHWYonWednesdayandORCL/AVGOonThursday(weʼllhavebogeysouttomorrow).TheBarclaysTMTConferencebeginsonWednesdayaswell(Agendahere).ChatGPT5.2releaseexpectedthisweekaswell. 我们周三将得到ADBE/CHWY的每股收益报告，周四有ORCL/AVGO（我们明天会发布⽬标股名单）。巴克莱TMT会议也将于周三开始（议程在此）。预计本周还会发布ChatGPT5.2。 OntheMacroside,alleyesontheFedwhereexpectsarecloseto90%foracutonWednesday.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 在宏观⽅⾯，所有⽬光都集中在美联储，市场预计周三降息的概率接近90%。 Shouldbeafunone.Lottogettotoday,soletʼsgettoit… 应该会很有趣。今天有很多事情要讲，所以我们开始吧…… OpenAIʼsGPT-5.2‘coderedʼresponsetoGoogleiscomingthisweek OpenAI对Google的“红⾊代码”回应GPT-5.2将于本周发布 TheVerge: OpenAI CEO SamAltmandeclareda“codered”situationearlierthisweek,pushingstafftorespondquicklytoincreasedcompetitionfromGoogleandAnthropic.SourcesfamiliarwithOpenAIʼsplanstellmethatthecompanyisplanningitsfirstresponsetoGemini3withitsupcomingGPT-5.2update.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K OpenAI⾸席执⾏官SamAltman本周早些时候宣布了“红⾊代码”状况，敦促员⼯迅速应对来⾃Google和Anthropic不断加剧的竞争。熟悉OpenAI计划的消息⼈⼠告诉我，公司正计划通过即将到来的GPT-5.2更新，⾸次回应Gemini3。 IunderstandGPT-5.2isreadytobereleased,andcouldappearassoonasearly[this]week.Sourcestellmethe5.2updateshouldclosethegapthatGooglecreatedwiththereleaseofGemini3lastmonth—amodelthattopped leaderboardsandwowedSamAltmanandxAI CEO ElonMusk. 我了解到GPT-5.2已准备好发布，可能最早在本周就会出现。消息⼈⼠告诉我，5.2更新应该会弥补上个⽉Google发布的Gemini3所造成的差距⸺该模型在排⾏榜上名列前茅，并让SamAltman和xAI⾸席执⾏官ElonMusk赞叹不已。 IBM NearsRoughly$11BillionDealforConfluentIBM即将以约110亿美元收购Confluent An$11Bdealimpliesabout$32pershare,implying8xEV/SalesonCY26#s.CFLTprovidesreal-timedatabackbonethathelpsoperationalizeenterpriseAI. ⼀笔110亿美元的交易意味着每股约32美元，按2026⽇历年数据计算，企业价值/销售额约为8倍。CFLT提供实时数据⻣⼲，有助于将企业级⼈⼯智能落地。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K WSJ:华尔街⽇报： AdealcouldbeannouncedassoonasMonday,thepeoplesaid,cautioningthatthetalkscouldstillfallapart. 这些⼈⼠称，交易最早可能在周⼀宣布，但他们警告称谈判仍可能破裂。 Confluenthadamarketvalueofaround$8billionasofFriday,whileIBMʼswasaround$290billion. 周五时，Confluent的市值约为80亿美元，⽽IBM的市值约为2900亿美元。 CVNA:SettojoinSP500 CVNA：将加⼊标普500 NFLX LetʼsstartwithNFLX.LotsofpushandbullbetweenbullsandbearshereovertheWBDacquisitionasstockgettingdowngradedbyRosenblattandPivotal(usedtobeabigbull)thismorning.Hereʼsthequickbullvs.beartugofwar.BullsseetheNFLX/WBDdealasalong-term,offensivescaleplay:itlocksupHBO/WB IP,removesthethreatofaWBD+PSKY/NBCUcombo,massivelydeepensNFLXʼslibrarywithhigh-qualitycontent,broadensglobaldistributionforWBDassetsonNFLXʼsrails,boostspricingpower,andcreatesalargersubbaseoverwhichtospreadfixed/contentcostswithpotentialforbetterthanexpectedsynergies($3B+).Ifthe微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K dealfails,youstilldisruptedyourlargestcompetitorfor6-9months.Bearsargueitʼsabad/overlyriskydeal:theydoubttheDOJwillapproveit(TrumpandcopreferEllison/PSKYoutcome),seethetransactionasasignNFLXʼsorganicgrowthisplateauingamidfearsoflong-formengagementpreferencesshifting,worryabout$80–90Bofproformadebtandadealoverhang,anddebatewhetherNFLXoverbidgiventhelargebreakfees. 我们先从NFLX说起。围绕WBD收购案，今天早上空头和多头之间争论激烈，Rosenblatt和Pivotal（曾是⼤多头）都下调了评级。这⾥是多头与空头的快速拉锯。多头认为NFLX/WBD交易是⼀个⻓期的进攻性规模玩法：它把HBO/WB的知识产权锁定住，消除了WBD与PSKY/NBCU组合的威胁，极⼤地通过⾼质量内容丰富了NFLX的⽚库，扩⼤了WBD资产在NFLX平台上的全球分发，增强了定价能⼒，并通过更⼤的订阅⽤户基数来分摊固定/内容成本，有望实现超出预期的协同效应（30亿美元以上）。就算交易失败，你也在6–9个⽉内扰乱了最⼤的竞争对⼿。空头则认为这是笔糟糕且过于冒险的交易：他们怀疑司法部会批准（特朗普等⼈更偏好Ellison/PSKY的结果），认为这笔交易表明NFLX的有机增⻓已⻅顶，且⼈们对⻓时段内容偏好可能正在转变，他们担⼼合并后将有800–900亿美元的债务和交易阴影，并质疑鉴于⾼额违约⾦NFLX是否出价过⾼。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Trump:WBD/NFLX“Couldbeaproblem.” 特朗普：WBD/NFLX“可能是个问题。” Acoupledowngradesthismorning… 今晨有⼏次下调评级…… NFLX:PivotalCutstoHOLD,CallingWarnerDealan$83BSignalofLong-FormPressure NFLX：Pivotal下调为持有，称华纳交易是830亿美元的⻓视频压⼒信号 Pivotal—whousedtobeabigbull-saysNetflixʼsplanned$83BacquisitionofWBDʼsstudiosandstreamingassets(includingasteep$5.8Bbreakupfee)lookslikeanattempttoreinforceitsdominanceinpremiumlong-formcontent,butitalsolayersonregulatoryriskandan18–24monthclosingwindow,pluspotentialbiddingcompetitionfromPSKY.Thefirmarguesthe“veryexpensive”dealunderscoresmanagementʼsdeeperworrythatshort-formplatforms(TikTok,Instagram,X,YouTubeShorts,Snap)areerodinglong-formengagementasyoungerusersspendmoretimeonfree,bite-sizedcontent.Pivotalnotesitistakingamoreconservativepostureonlong-termsubsandARPUandisnotyetbakingtheWarnerdealintoestimates,whichwouldlikelypushforecastshigherbut“atmeaningfulcost.”RunningtherevisedassumptionsthroughitsDCFmodeldrovea$55red