TMTB 早间简报

NOV18,2025 2025年11⽉18⽇∙PAID∙付费内容TMTBREAKOUT科技媒体通信板块异动 分享 Goodmorning.Futures-60bpstostarttheday.Asiaveryweakovernight::TPX-2.88%,NKY-3.22%,HangSeng-1.72%,HSCEI-1.65%,SHCOMP-0.81%,Shenzhen-1.04%,TaiwanTAIEX-2.52%,KoreaKOSPI-3.32%,.Memorynamesparticularlyweak:Kioxia-8%,Phison-7.5%,Nanya/Hynix-3.5%,Samsung-2%.BTCcloseto$90k.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 早盘期货下跌60个基点。亚洲市场隔夜普遍⾛弱：东证指数-2.88%、⽇经225-3.22%、恒⽣-1.72%、恒⽣中国企业指数-1.65%、上证综指-0.81%、深证成指-1.04%、台湾加权指数-2.52%、韩国综合指数-3.32%。存储芯⽚类个股表现尤其疲软：铠侠-8%、群联-7.5%、南亚/海⼒⼠-3.5%、三星-2%。⽐特币接近9万美元关⼝。 MSFTIgniteandWellsFargoTMTSummitstarttoday.Gemini3rumoredtobereleasedtodayortomorrowwithsomegood-lookinginitial(andunverified)benchmarksbeingpassedaroundX(below). 微软Ignite⼤会和富国银⾏TMT峰会今⽇开幕。传闻Gemini3模型将于今明两天发布，X平台上流传着⼀些未经证实但看起来不错的初步基准测试结果（⻅下⽂）。 Letʼsgettoit…开始今⽇内容... NET-3.5%:Cloudflaresaysglobalnetworkexperiencingissuesthismorning Cloudflare（NET）跌3.5%：该公司表示其全球⽹络今晨出现故障微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Cloudflaresaidthatitisawareof,andinvestigatinganissuewhichpotentiallyimpactsmultiplecustomers. Cloudflare表示已察觉并正在调查⼀个可能影响多个客户的问题。 MSFT:Rothschild&CoRedburnCutsMicrosofttoNeutral,LowersPTto$500微软(MSFT)：罗斯柴尔德旗下Redburn将评级下调⾄中性，⽬标价降⾄500美元 Rothschild&CoRedburnmovedMicrosofttoNeutralfromBuyandtrimmeditstargetto$500,arguingthat“amorecautiousstanceonthehyperscalers”isnowwarranted.Thefirmsaysitsworkshowstheunderlyinguniteconomicsare“meaningfullyweakerthanassumed,”notingthatGPU-drivenbuildoutsrequireroughly6xmorecapitaltogeneratethesame“cloud1.0value”—withtheriskprofilenowtiltedtothedownside.Theanalystaddsthatinvestorsaregivinghyperscalers“toomuchbenefitofthedoubt”byvaluingtodayʼscapexasifitdeliverslegacycloudreturns,despite“noclearpathbacktothoseeconomics.”RothschildalsodowngradedAmazonalongsideMSFTandpointstosofterearningsexpectationsplussharplyhighercapexneedsasthedriversbehindtheMicrosoftcall.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 罗斯柴尔德公司Redburn将微软评级从买⼊下调⾄中性，并把⽬标价调降⾄500美元，认为⽬前有必要"对超⼤规模云服务商采取更谨慎态度"。该公司表示，其研究表明基础单位经济效益"明显弱于预期"，并指出基于GPU的基础设施建设需要约6倍资⾦才能产⽣同等"云1.0时代价值"，且当前⻛险状况倾向于下⾏。分析师补充道，投资者给予超⼤规模云服务商"过多信任溢价"，以传统云回报率为标准评估当前资本⽀出，尽管"尚⽆明确路径回归该经济模型"。罗斯柴尔德同时下调了亚⻢逊评级，并指出微软评级调整的动因包括盈利预期疲软及资本⽀出需求激增。 GOOGL:AlphabetupgradedtoBuyfromHoldatLoopCapitalGOOGL：Alphabet获LoopCapital从持有上调⾄买⼊评级 LoopCapitalanalystRobSandersonupgradedAlphabet(GOOGL)toBuyfromHoldwithapricetargetof$320,upfrom$260.Thefirmitsconcernsregardingthe sustainabilityofthecompanyʼssearchrevenuegrowthunderartificialintelligencecannibalizationandtransitionriskisnolongeraconcernsharedbyinvestors.Googleʼssearchresults“remainashealthyasever”whiletrafficsharetoGeminihasdoubledyear-over-year,andthepositionofGoogleCloudandsizeofopportunityforitsproprietaryartificialintelligenceprocessors“isbecomingbetterappreciated,”theanalysttellsinvestorsinaresearchnote.LoopupgradedAlphabetaftersignificantlyraisingitsgrowthoutlookforGoogleCloud. LoopCapital分析师RobSanderson将Alphabet(GOOGL)评级从持有上调⾄买⼊，⽬标价从260美元上调⾄320美元。该机构表示，投资者已不再担忧⼈⼯智能蚕效应和转型⻛险下公司搜索收⼊增⻓的可持续性问题。分析师在研究报告中告诉投资者，⾕歌的搜索业务"保持着⼀如既往的健康状态"，Gemini的访问量份额同⽐翻番，⽽⾕歌云的市场地位及其专⽤⼈⼯智能处理器的商业机会"正获得更多认可"。Loop在⼤幅上调⾕歌云增⻓预期后对Alphabet进⾏了评级上调。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K GOOGL:Gemini3(unverified)benchmarkresultsbeingpassedaroundXthismorninglookgood GOOGL：今早在X平台流传的Gemini3（未经验证）基准测试结果表现亮眼 AMZN:RothschildRedburnCutstoNeutral,Keeps$250PTasUpsidevs.ExpectationsNarrows 亚⻢逊(AMZN)：罗斯柴尔德投⾏Redburn下调评级⾄中性，维持250美元⽬标价，因上⾏空间较预期收窄 RothschildRedburndowngradedAmazontoNeutralwitha$250target,sayingitʼstaking“amorecautiousview”onAWSafteryearsofholdingahigh-convictionstancethroughmultiplegenerative-AInarrativecycles.ThefirmsaysAWShadlongappearedbetterpositionedthanAzure—helpedbyitsverticalintegrationandanAnthropicspartnershipitviewsasmoreattractivethanOpenAIforsoftware-developmentworkloads,the“mostdurable”gen-AIusecase—butthebackdrophasshifted.WithAWSnowreacceleratingbroadlyinlinewithexpectations,Redburnseeslimitedroomformeaningfulupsiderelativetowherebuy-sidesentimentalreadysits.Thefirmadds微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K thatAmazonincreasinglyresemblesMicrosoftinonerespect:eventhoughAWScapturesmorevaluedownthestack,gen-AItailwindsarenottranslatingintoincrementalupsidethewaybullshadhoped. 罗斯柴尔德雷德伯恩将亚⻢逊评级下调⾄中性，⽬标价250美元，表示在经历多年坚定看好⽴场并通过多轮⽣成式AI热潮后，其对AWS转持"更谨慎观点"。该机构指出，得益于垂直整合优势及与Anthropic的合作（他们认为相⽐OpenAI，这⼀合作对软件开发⼯作负载这⼀"最持久"⽣成式AI⽤例更具吸引⼒），AWS⻓期看来⽐Azure更具优势，但⾏业背景已发⽣变化。随着AWS增速现如预期全⾯回升，雷德伯恩认为相对于买⽅情绪已反映的预期，亚⻢逊股价实际上⾏空间有限。该机构补充称，亚⻢逊在⼀个⽅⾯越来越像微软：尽管AWS在技术栈底层捕获更多价值，但⽣成式AI的推动⼒并未如多头预期那样转化为增量收益。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K AMZN:Tranium3delay/AVGOintroducedintoTrn3supplychain AMZN：Tranium3延迟/AVGO进⼊Trn3供应链 TheAVGOstuffseemsnew.OnTrn3,Jefferiesoutsayingit“stronglydisagrees”withrecentrumors,notingAlchipʼs2Q26Trianium3rampandunchangedfull-yearoutlookimplyasteeper—notweaker—trajectory,withnosignsofimminentmassproductioninthesupplychain,withupdatedexpectationsfor1.2Munits(vs.~800kprior).微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 关于博通的新闻似乎有新进展。在第三季度交易中，杰富瑞强烈驳斥了近期传闻，指出Alchip公司Trianium3芯⽚在2026年⼆季度的量产爬坡计划及全年展望未变，这表明其发展轨迹将更为陡峭⽽⾮趋缓。⽬前供应链中未⻅⼤规模量产的迹象，同时市场预期已上调⾄120万⽚（此前约为80万⽚）。 AMZN:NeedhamHighlightsAmazonʼsCultural,Logistic,andGenAI AdvantagesasDriver