TMTB 早间简报

DEC09,2025 2025年12⽉09⽇∙PAID∙付费TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破 Goodmorning.Futuresflat.Asiaslightlyweakerovernight:TPX+0.02%,NKY+0.14%,HangSeng-1.29%,HSCEI-1.62%,SHCOMP-0.37%,Shenzhen-0.52%,TaiwanTAIEX-0.43%,KoreaKOSPI-0.27%. 早上好。期货盘持平。亚盘隔夜表现略弱：⽇经指数+0.02%，东京株式指数+0.14%，恒⽣指数-1.29%，恒⽣中国企业指数-1.62%，上证综合指数-0.37%，深圳-0.52%，台湾加权指数-0.43%，韩国综合股价指数-0.27%。 BTC-1%.Yieldsflattish.Prettyslowmorningtodayaswebegintogetneartheholidayseason.Fedtomorrow.UBS Media&CommConferenceDay2today. ⽐特币-1%。收益率趋平。随着假期季节临近，今晨相当清淡。美联储明天开会。瑞银传媒与通信⼤会第⼆天今天举⾏。 Letʼsgettoit… 我们开始吧…… NVDA:ChinasettolimitaccesstoNvidiaʼsH200chipsdespiteTrumpexportapproval 英伟达：尽管特朗普批准出⼝，中国将限制对英伟达H200芯⽚的访问 Sell-sideroughlysaying`$25Bopportunitywitheach$10Babout25ctoEPS,althoughmaybeatadlessif25%taxisright.(recallJensenpreviouslyindicateda~$50BcurrenttotalannualopportunityinChina,a#whichlikelygrowsovertime).Asareference,H200comparedtoH20offers~6xfasterperformance(1,979TFLOPSFP16/FP8vs.296TFLOPS FP16)&~50%morememory(141GB HBM3evs.96GB)atover2xtheASP. 卖⽅⼤致表示“每增加100亿美元的机会约为2500万美元，对每股收益贡献约25美分，尽管如果25%的税率正确的话可能会略低。（回想⼀下，Jensen此前指出中国⽬前总体年度机会约为500亿美元，这⼀数字可能会随着时间增⻓。）作为参考，H200相⽐H20提供约6倍更快的性能（1979TFLOPS FP16/FP8对296TFLOPS FP16）和约50%更多的内存（141GB HBM3e对96GB），且平均售价超过两倍。 FinancialTimes:⾦融时报： Accordingtotwopeoplewithknowledgeofthematter,regulatorsinBeijinghavebeendiscussingwaystopermitlimitedaccesstotheH200,Nvidiaʼssecond-bestgenerationofartificialintelligencechips.Buyerswouldprobablyberequiredtogothroughanapprovalprocess,thepeoplesaid,submittingrequeststopurchasethechipsandexplainingwhydomesticproviderswereunabletomeettheirneeds. 据两位知情⼈⼠称，北京的监管机构⼀直在讨论允许有限访问H200的⽅式，H200是英伟达第⼆代最佳的⼈⼯智能芯⽚。这些⼈⼠表示，买家可能需要经过审批流程，提交购买芯⽚的请求并说明国内供应商为何⽆法满⾜其需求。 U.S.GovʼtalsofinalizingsimilararrangementsforAMD/INTC 美国政府也在为AMD/INTC敲定类似安排 OpenAI:SamAltmanʼsSprinttoCorrectOpenAIʼsDirectionandFendOffGoogle OpenAI：⼭姆·奥特曼争分夺秒纠正OpenAI⽅向并抵御⾕歌 WSJ:沃尔街⽇报： WhenOpenAI CEOSamAltmanmadethedramaticcallfora“codered”lastweektobeatbackarisingthreatfromGoogle,heputanotablepriorityatthetopofhislistoffixes.TheworldʼsmostvaluablestartupshouldpauseitssideprojectslikeitsSoravideogeneratorforeightweeksandfocusonimprovingChatGPT, itspopularchatbotthatkickedofftheAIboom. 当OpenAI⾸席执⾏官⼭姆·奥特曼上周为应对来⾃⾕歌⽇益增⻓的威胁⽽果断宣布“代码红”时，他在需要修正的事项清单顶端放了⼀个显著优先事项。这家世界上最有价值的初创公司应暂停像Sora视频⽣成器这样的副项⽬⼋周，专注于改进ChatGPT⸺这款引发⼈⼯智能热潮的热⻔聊天机器⼈。 Withthatdirective,Altmanwascallingforturningupthecrankonacontroversialsourceoftrainingdata—includingsignalsbasedonone-clickfeedbackfromusers,ratherthanevaluationsfromprofessionalsofthechatbotʼsresponses.NowAltmanthinksthecompanyhasmitigatedtheworstaspectsofthatapproach,butispoisedtocapturetheupside:Itsignificantlyboostedengagement,asmeasuredbyperformanceoninternaldashboardstrackingdailyactiveusers.“Itwasnotasmall,statisticallysignificantbump,butlikea‘wowʼbump,”saidonepersonwhoworkedonthemodel. 在那项指令下，奥特曼要求加⼤对⼀种有争议的训练数据来源的使⽤⼒度⸺包括基于⽤户⼀键反馈的信号，⽽不是专业⼈员对聊天机器⼈回应的评估。现在奥特曼认为公司已经缓解了该⽅法最糟糕的⽅⾯，但准备抓住其上⾏潜⼒：它显著提升了参与度，从内部仪表盘追踪的⽇活⽤户表现来看得到了提升。“这不是⼀个微⼩的、统计学上显著的提升，⽽是那种让⼈‘哇ʼ的⼀跃，”⼀位参与该模型⼯作的⼈⼠说。 AAPL:CitiliftsDec–QestimatesaboveStreetonstronger-than-expectediPhone17demand AAPL：花旗上调对12⽉季度的预估，⾼于市场普遍预期，因iPhone17需求强于预期 CitisaysupgradeactivityfromiPhone12/13userscontinuestopointtoupsideforDecemberandMarch-quarteriPhone17units,promptingthefirmtoraiseFY26–28EPSestimatesandmoveitspricetargetto$330on~33xCY27EPS.Theanalysthighlightsdelivery-trackerdatashowingongoingsupplytightness—especiallyforthebasemodel—withU.S.leadtimesimprovingmodestlyintoBlackFriday.CitialsonotesServicesremainssupportedbyAppStore,ads,andcloud,evenasSensorTowershowsAppStorerevenue“startingtodeviate”fromtotalServicesgrowth,whileAppleʼsvastinstalledbaseandhightransactionpenetrationcontinuetounderpinmomentum.Thefirmaddsthatsupply-chainpartnersareenthusiasticaboutAppleʼsmovetoWMCMpackagingfor2026andsaysrecentex-GeminiAIhiresandthepersonalizedSiriroadmapprovideadditionalflexibilityforfoundational-modeldevelopment. 花旗称来⾃iPhone12/13⽤户的升级活动继续显示12⽉和3⽉季度iPhone17出货量有上⾏趋势，促使该公司上调2026–2028财年的每股收益预测，并将⽬标价上调⾄330美元，约为2027⽇历年每股收益的33倍。分析师强调交付跟踪数据表明供应仍然紧张⸺尤其是基础款⸺美国市场的交付周期在⿊⾊星期五前有所⼩幅改善。花旗还指出，尽管SensorTower显示AppStore收⼊“开始偏离”服务总收⼊增⻓，但服务业务仍由AppStore、⼴告和云⽀持，苹果庞⼤的已装机量和⾼交易渗透率继续⽀撑其势头。该公司补充称，供应链合作伙伴对苹果2026年向WMCM封装的转变表示乐观，并表示近期除Gemini之外的AI招聘以及个性化Siri路线图为基础模型开发提供了额外灵活性。 ALAB:HearingSemianalysismixed,cutting‘25-ʼ27AWSALABrevsby~halfduetoTrn2eandTrn3unitpushouts ALAB：听到Semianalysis的反馈好坏参半，由于Trn2e和Trn3设备推迟，将2025–2027年AWS ALAB收⼊削减约⼀半 SNPS:RosenblattupgradestoBuywith$560PTonsignsofrecoveryandAnsysboost SNPS：Rosenblatt在出现复苏迹象和Ansys提振后将评级上调⾄买⼊，⽬标价560美元 RosenblattupgradesSynopsystoBuy,sayingthestockʼs~30%slidesincetheSeptemberQ3printcreatesareentrypointasIP-segmentandChina-markettrendsshowearlysignsofimprovement.Thefirmexpectsanin-lineQ4,withrevenueofabout$2.25BaidedbythefirstfullquarterofAnsysandmarginsabove36%helpedbya10%workforcereduction.Rosenblattseessupportivesemi/systemsdevelopmenttrends,steadyadoptionofSynopsys.ai,andimprovingmarketconditionscarryingintoFY26.Withanticipatedoperatingleverageandintegrationbenefit