TMTB 早间快报

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破OCT 16, 20252025年10⽉16⽇∙PAID∙已付费 Futures +70bps as memory/AI driving names higher int he pre…Remember ORCL keypresentation at 12:45 est today 期货上涨70个基点，内存/AI概念股在盘前⾛⾼……请记住，甲⻣⽂（ORCL）的关键演示将于今天美国东部时间12:45举⾏。 FirstTSM, CRM, HPErecaps, then News/Research. ⾸先是台积电（TSM）、赛富时（CRM）、慧与（HPE）的回顾，然后是新闻/研究。 Running a little late but lots of important stuff so lets get straight to it…. 有点晚了，但有很多重要内容，所以我们直接开始吧…… TSM +2%: Down the fairway: 3Q beat on margins/eps; 4Qguide in-line but margins better; FY25 growth raised, capexnarrowed 台积电（TSM）上涨2%：表现符合预期：第三季度利润率/每股收益超预期；第四季度指引符合预期但利润率更好；2025财年增⻓上调，资本⽀出收窄。 Overall solid print with no big surprises as mgmt sounded very positive on AI demandalthough some bulls likely hoping for a bit more on the Q4 top line guide.Nothing tochange bulls minds here - all AI roads lead to TSM and we think this continues to be amust own and one of the best “sleep well at night” AI plays. 总体表现稳健，没有⼤的意外，管理层对⼈⼯智能需求表现出⾮常积极的态度，尽管⼀些看涨者可能希望第四季度营收指引能更⾼⼀些。这并没有改变看涨者的看法——所有⼈⼯智能的发展都指向台积电，我们认为这仍然是必不可少的投资，也是最好的“⾼枕⽆忧”的⼈⼯智能股票之⼀。 “Recent developments inAI market continue to be very positive. The explosivegrowth in token volume demonstrates increasing consumer AI model adoption,which means more and more computation is needed, leading to more leading-edgesilicon demand. Ourconviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening. AIdemand isstronger than we thought three months ago” “⼈⼯智能市场的最新发展持续向好。令牌数量的爆炸式增⻓表明消费者对⼈⼯智能模型的采⽤越来越多，这意味着需要更多的计算能⼒，从⽽导致对尖端芯⽚的需求增加。我们对⼈⼯智能⼤趋势的信⼼正在增强。⼈⼯智能需求⽐我们三个⽉前想象的要强劲。” Another clean print: net income NT$452.3B (+14% QoQ/+39% YoY) vs BBGNT$405B; GM 59.5% and OpM 50.6% both ahead (2-3ppts), with 9M capex at~$29.4B. ⼜⼀份亮眼的财报：净利润为新台币4523亿元（环⽐增⻓14%，同⽐增⻓39%），⽽彭博社预测为新台币4050亿元；⽑利率为59.5%，营业利润率为50.6%，均超出预期（2-3个百分点），前9个⽉资本⽀出约为294亿美元。 Q4 sales guided between USD32.2-33.4bn, +4.2% ahead of street at the midpoint(cons at$31.5bn). Q4 Gross margins were guided to be between 59-61%, 3pp aboveconsensus at the midpoint 第四季度销售额预计在322亿⾄334亿美元之间，中位数⽐市场预期⾼出4.2%（市场普遍预期为315亿美元）。第四季度⽑利率预计在59%⾄61%之间，中位数⽐市场普遍预期⾼出3个百分点。 FY25 outlook improved: revenue growth lifted to the mid-30% range (from 30%);capex tightened to$40–42B (from$38–42B); overseas fabs seen diluting GM by ~1–2% in FY25 and 2–3% early/3–4% later thereafter. FY25展望改善：营收增⻓上调⾄30%中段（原为30%）；资本⽀出收紧⾄400-420亿美元（原为380-420亿美元）；海外晶圆⼚预计在FY25稀释⽑利率约1-2%，此后早期稀释2-3%，后期稀释3-4%。 Key Takeaways:主要收获： Management tone stayed very bullish on AI—demand stronger than three monthsago, CoWoS and broader AI supply chain still tight, China restrictions not seenderailing the AI trajectory—and reiterated revenue should outgrow capex. TSMCsees no issue around pull-ins which has been a concern for some. 管理层对⼈⼯智能的态度依然⾮常乐观——需求⽐三个⽉前更强劲，CoWoS和更⼴泛的⼈⼯智能供应链仍然紧张，中国限制预计不会阻碍⼈⼯智能的发展轨迹——并重申营收增⻓应超过资本⽀出。台积电认为不存在⼀些⼈担⼼的提前拉货问题。 No numeric 2026 capex/CoWoS update until the 4Q call. Roadmap remains ontrack: N2 volume in 2H25 with a faster 2026 ramp, N2P and A16 (SPR) targetedfor 2H26, and accelerated Arizona plans including two advanced-packaging fabsplus an OSAT partner breaking ground earlier. Overall: beat on margins/EPS,guidance constructive (especially on GM), and a firm setup into 2026 在第四季度财报电话会议之前，没有2026年资本⽀出/CoWoS的具体更新。路线图保持不变：N2产量在2025年下半年实现，2026年加速爬坡，N2P和A16 (SPR)⽬标在2026年下半年推出，并加速亚利桑那州的计划，包括两座先进封装晶圆⼚，以及⼀个OSAT合作伙伴提前动⼯。总体⽽⾔：利润率/每股收益超出预期，指引具有建设性（尤其是在⽑利率⽅⾯），并为2026年奠定了坚实基础。 CRM +6%: Solid analyst day with 10% CAGR over next 4years and 40% margin target (up from 34%). Strongcommentary around AI traction, and a “50 by FY30”yardstick CRM +6%：分析师⽇表现强劲，未来四年复合年增⻓率达10%，利润率⽬标40%（⾼于34%）。关于AI牵引⼒和“2030财年实现500亿美元营收”的评论⾮常积极。 Salesforce set FY30 revenue of$60B+ (ex-Informatica), implying 10%+ organic CAGRFY26–FY30, and introduced a “50 by FY30” framework (subscription & support CCgrowth + non-GAAP OpM = 50), whichimplies~40% OpM by FY30 vs ~34% in FY26guidance. Salesforce设定2030财年营收⽬标为600亿美元以上（不含Informatica），这意味着2026-2030财年有机复合年增⻓率将超过10%，并引⼊了“2030财年50”框架（订阅和⽀持的固定汇率增⻓率+⾮GAAP运营利润率= 50），这意味着到2030财年运营利润率将达到约40%，⽽2026财年指导值为约34%。 Management highlighted accelerating bookings/AOV–NNAOV trends with a 12–18month path to revenue re-acceleration, disclosed$1.2B Data+AI ARR (+120% Y/Y) and$440M agentic AI ARR, and noted 12k+ Agentforce customers. They also announceda$7B buyback; targets exclude the pending$8B Informatica deal. Shares are +~6%pre-market on the update. 管理层强调预订量/平均订单价值-新净平均订单价值趋势加速，预计收⼊将在12-18个⽉内重新加速增⻓，披露数据+AI年化经常性收⼊为12亿美元（同⽐增⻓120%），代理式AI年化经常性收⼊为4.4亿美元，并指出Agentforce客户超过1.2万家。他们还宣布了70亿美元的股票回购计划；这些⽬标不包括待定的80亿美元Informatica交易。受此消息影响，盘前股价上涨约6%。 Some good back and forth in TMTB chathere TMTB聊天中出现了⼀些不错的来回讨论 Sentiment was horrible heading in, so not surprising to see stock rally. Most feedback Ihad in conversations were similar to the above in the chat, with most investors I talkedto blase about the stock (why is 10% growth exciting when semis and infra swaccelerating?) and some pushing back that its still a show me story as pushing out 12-18 months to get to double digits won’t last with