TMTB 早间快报

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破NOV 07, 20252025年11⽉7⽇∙PAID∙已⽀付 Good morning. More risk off early this Friday withFutures -60bps.Asiaweaker:TPX-0.44%,NKY-1.19%,Hang Seng-0.92%,HSCEI-0.94%,SHCOMP-0.25%,Shenzhen-0.3%,Taiwan TAIEX-0.89%,Korea KOSPI-1.81%. Odds of a rate cuteon 12/10 down to 65%.On the gov’t shutdown front, hopes cooled overnight for anagreement as Dems said they will block legislation today that would pave the way forreopening (Politico). BTC -1% hanging around 100k 早上好。本周五早盘⻛险情绪进⼀步下降，期货下跌60个基点。亚洲市场⾛弱：TPX -0.44%，⽇经指数-1.19%，恒⽣指数-0.92%，国企指数-0.94%，上证综指-0.25%，深证成指-0.3%，台湾加权指数-0.89%，韩国KOSPI指数-1.81%。12⽉10⽇降息的概率降⾄65%。在政府停摆⽅⾯，由于⺠主党表示他们今天将阻⽌为重新开放铺平道路的⽴法（Politico），达成协议的希望在⼀夜之间降温。⽐特币下跌1%，徘徊在10万美元左右。 We’ll hit earnings first, then onto the usual… 我们先看财报，然后是常规内容…… EXPE +14%:Clean beat & raise, beating bogeys/street —nights +11% y/y (fastest growth in >3 years), revenue +9%y/y, EBITDA margin +~200 bps y/y; FY guide raised with Q4outlook calling for 6–8% growth and continued marginexpansion. EXPE +14%：业绩⼲净利落，超出预期并上调指引，击败了市场预期⸺住宿量同⽐增⻓11%（三年多来最快增速），营收同⽐增⻓9%，EBITDA利润率同⽐增⻓约200个基点；上调全年指引，第四季度展望显示增⻓6-8%，利润率持续扩张。 The #s / Key Takeaways 数据/主要观点 3Q Revenue$4.412B, +9% y/y (last q +6% y/y) vs Street$4.283B, +6%;Adj.EBITDA$1.449B (32.8% margin) vs Street$1.350B (~31.5%);Non-GAAP EPS$7.81 vs Street$6.97. Beat driven by U.S. nights acceleration and B2B +26%growth. 第三季度营收44.12亿美元，同⽐增⻓9%（上季度同⽐增⻓6%），⽽市场预期为42.83亿美元，增⻓6%；调整后EBITDA为14.49亿美元（利润率32.8%），⽽市场预期为13.50亿美元（约31.5%）；⾮GAAP每股收益7.81美元，⽽市场预期为6.97美元。业绩超出预期主要得益于美国住宿量的加速增⻓和B2B业务26%的增⻓。 3QGross bookings$30.73B, +12% y/y vs Street ~$29.18B;Room nights108.2M, +11.1% y/y vs Street ~103.8M (+~7%).Take rate 14.36% vs Street14.69% (mix/timing) 第三季度总预订额307.3亿美元，同⽐增⻓12%，⽽市场预期约为291.8亿美元；间夜数1.082亿，同⽐增⻓11.1%，⽽市场预期约为1.038亿（增⻓约7%）。佣⾦率14.36%，⽽市场预期为14.69%（受组合/时机影响）。 Q4 guide:bookings & revenue +6–8% y/y (FX +1–1.5 pts) vs street at 4% and~+200 bps margin expansion (EBITDA 22.5% vs street at 21% — guide 6% abovestreet on EBITDA);FY25 raised to GBV +~7%, revenue +~6–7%, margin +~200bps.2026: further margin gains but at a moderated pace. 第四季度指引：预订量和收⼊同⽐增⻓6-8%（外汇贡献1-1.5个百分点），⽽市场预期为4%；利润率扩张约200个基点（EBITDA为22.5%，⽽市场预期为21%⸺指引的EBITDA⽐市场预期⾼出6%）；2025财年上调⾄总预订额增⻓约7%，收⼊增⻓约6-7%，利润率增⻓约200个基点。2026年：利润率将进⼀步提升，但增速放缓。 Macro/Demand:Mgmt cited stronger U.S. with longer stays/booking windows,resilient premium and low-end demand; monitoring gov’t shutdown/air traffic risk,but air exposure manageable. U.S. nights up HSD (fastest in >3 years); EMEA LDDand APAC >20% nights growth; longer lengths of stay and booking windowsindicate a healthier consumer. 宏观/需求：管理层表示美国市场表现强劲，⼊住时间更⻓/预订周期更⻓，⾼端和低端需求均具韧性；正在监测政府停摆/航空交通⻛险，但航空业务敞⼝可控。美国间夜数实现⾼个位数增⻓（三年多来最快）；欧洲、中东和⾮洲地区实现低两位数增⻓，亚太地区间夜数增⻓超过20%；更⻓的⼊住时间和预订周期表明消费者状况更健康。 Ad revenue +16%; product work (new lodging search flows, rec systems)delivered record attach; Hotels.com relaunch and Vrbo promos lifted brandtrajectories. ⼴告收⼊增⻓16%；产品⼯作（新的住宿搜索流程、推荐系统）带来了创纪录的附加销售；Hotels.com的重新发布和Vrbo的促销活动提升了品牌发展轨迹。 AI in filters/Q&A/review summaries and service; virtual agents resolve >50% oftraveler queries; early but good-quality traffic from OpenAI/Google/Perplexityintegrations; aim to appear in answer engines and route back to direct. AI在筛选/问答/评论摘要和服务中的应⽤；虚拟代理解决超过50%的旅客查询；来⾃OpenAI/Google/Perplexity集成的早期但⾼质量的流量；旨在出现在答案引擎中并引导回直接预订。 ⽜市与熊市之争 Bull vs. Bear Debate Bullsargue this quarter confirms “OTA convergence”: EXPE’s room-night growth(+11%) matched or beat key peers while U.S. nights re-accelerated for the first time inyears. They see a structural earnings story (HSD revenue + consistent marginexpansion) powered by B2B (+26% bookings), ad monetization (+16%), and B2Cmarketing efficiency (B2C EBITDA margin ~41%). With ~2/3 of B2C direct and loyaltyscaling, bulls think the mix shift is durable and AI will improve personalization, attach,and service costs (already >50% of queries resolved by virtual agents). While thenights comp gets tougher in Q4, if EXPE can hold HSD growth, that means we likelysee DD growth through Q2’26 as copms get much easier in Q1/Q2. On valuation, bullshighlight EXPE trading at ~13x P/E vs BKNG ~18x/ABNB ~25x, despite higher andaccelerating room night growth, and say with recent mgmt execution, premium shoulddiminish. 多头认为本季度证实了“OTA融合”：EXPE的间夜增⻓率（+11%）与主要同⾏持平或更⾼，⽽美国间夜量多年来⾸次重新加速。他们认为，在B2B（预订量增⻓26%）、⼴告变现（增⻓16%）和B2C营销效率（B2CEBITDA利润率约41%）的推动下，公司存在结构性盈利故事（⾼个位数收⼊增⻓+持续的利润率扩张）。随着约2/3的B2C业务直接化和忠诚度计划的扩⼤，多头认为这种组合转变是持久的，并且⼈⼯智能将改善个性化、附加销售和服务成本（⽬前超过50%的查询由虚拟代理解决）。尽管第四季度的间夜⽐较基数更⾼，但如果EXPE能保持⾼个位数增⻓，这意味着我们可能会看到直到2026年第⼆季度的两位数增⻓，因为第⼀季度/第⼆季度的⽐较基数会容易得多。在估值⽅⾯，多头强调EXPE的市盈率约为13倍，⽽BKNG约为18倍/ABNB约为25倍，尽管EXPE的间夜增⻓率更⾼且正在加速，他们表示，鉴于近期管理层的执⾏⼒，这种溢价应该会缩⼩。 Bearscontend Q3’s strength owed partly to a favorable OTA backdrop (hotels leaninginto OTAs during a soft macro) that may fade; B2B comps stiffen into 2026, andBKNG/ABNB could spend more in U.S. hotels and alternative accommodations. Theyflag answer-engine/AI search risk (re-intermediation, content control, and paid trafficquality), Google dependence,