TMTB早间快讯 - TMT板块爆发

NOV14,2025 2025年11⽉14⽇∙PAID∙付费内容TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破者 分享 Goodmorning.Futures-1.5%offasseemslikeanotherdayofriskoff.Asiawasmetwithsellingacrosstheboard:TPX-0.65%,NKY-1.77%,HangSeng-1.85%,HSCEI-2.1%,SHCOMP-0.97%,Shenzhen-1.36%,TaiwanTAIEX-1.81%,KoreaKOSPI-3.81%.BTC-4%dippingbelow$95k.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 早上好。期货市场下跌1.5%，市场避险情绪再度升温。亚洲股市全线遭抛售：东证指数-0.65%，⽇经225指数-1.77%，恒⽣指数-1.85%，国企指数-2.1%，上证综指-0.97%，深证成指-1.36%，台湾加权指数-1.81%，韩国KOSPI指数-3.81%。⽐特币下跌4%跌破9.5万美元关⼝。 WegettotheusualfirsttodaythenAMATearningsatthebottom.Letʼsgettoit… 今⽇我们先关注常规内容，⽂末将附上AMAT财报要点。⻢上开始... NVDA Previews英伟达(NVDA)财报前瞻 NVDA:KeyBancRaisesEstimatesAheadofF3Q Print,CitingMultipleUpsideDrivers微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 英伟达：KeyBanc在第三财季财报前上调预期，列举多重上⾏催化剂 KeyBancsaysitexpectsNvidiatopostanotherstrongOctoberquarterandtoguideJanuarymeaningfullyhigher,withseveralforceslikelypushingresultsaboveexpectations.ThefirmnotesthatrisingB300volumesshouldprovidebothunitand ASPlift,whilesmootherGB300rackproduction—KeyBancnowmodels28–30K FY26racks—addsanotherlegofsupport.TheanalystalsohighlightsstrongerHopperoutput,whichthefirmsuggestsmayreflectaresumptionofshipmentsintoChina.Atthesametime,KeyBancflagsongoingcapacityconstraintsthatcouldcapthemagnitudeofupsideandpotentiallyweighongamingGPUavailability.Withthesedynamicsinmind,thefirmnudgesestimatesupandreiteratesitsOverweightstance. KeyBanc预计英伟达将在⼗⽉季度再次交出亮眼财报，并为⼀⽉份提供显著⾼于预期的业绩指引，多重因素有望推动业绩超预期。该机构指出，B300芯⽚产量提升将同时带动出货量和平均售价上涨，⽽GB300机架⽣产流程的改善（KeyBanc⽬前预计2026财年产量达2.8-3万台）将形成额外⽀撑。分析师同时强调Hopper芯⽚产能增强，这可能意味着对华出货已恢复常态。不过KeyBanc也提醒持续存在的产能限制或抑制上⾏空间，并可能影响游戏GPU的供应。基于这些动态，该机构⼩幅上调盈利预期，并重申"增持"评级。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K NVDA:MorganStanleyLiftsPTto$220asQuarterShouldRe-CenterMarketonNvidiaʼsLeadership英伟达动态：摩根⼠丹利将⽬标价上调⾄220美元季度财报或将重振市场对其领导地位的认知 MorganStanleysaysthesetupforNvidiahasmeaningfullyimprovedoverthepastsixweeks,andthefirmnowexpectsoneofthestrongestprintsinrecentquartersasBlackwellrampsintofullstride.ThestockhaslaggedAIpeersrecently,butMSarguesthatsentimentshouldrebalancegivenacceleratingdemandsignalsacrosscustomersandsuppliers,verystrongVeraRubinmomentum,andcontinuedconfirmationthatBlackwellremainsthechipofchoice.ThefirmnotesthatNVIDIAhasworkedthroughearlierrackissues,leavinggrowthbottlenecksmoreonthebroaderhardwareecosystem(storage,memory,servers,space/power)thanonNvidiaitself,whilehyperscalerandsovereigncapexoutlookscontinuetosurge—CY26cloudcapexforthebigfourwasrevisedup$20B+eachinQ3.MSaddsthatsupply-chainreadsfromQuanta,Wistron,HonHaiandothersreflectrobustAIservergrowth,whileremainingconstraints—memory,optics,T-glass,poweravailability,andfront-endwafers—look微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K manageablerelativetodemand. 摩根⼠丹利指出，英伟达的基本⾯在过去六周显著改善，随着Blackwell芯⽚全⾯发⼒，公司预计将交出近⼏个季度最强劲的财报之⼀。尽管该股近期表现落后于其他AI概念股，但⼤摩认为考虑到客户和供应商端加速的需求信号、VeraRubin架构的强劲势头以及Blackwell持续被确认为⾸选芯⽚，市场情绪将重新平衡。报告强调英伟达已解决早期的机架问题，当前增⻓瓶颈更多在于整体硬件⽣态（存储、内存、服务器、空间/电⼒）⽽⾮英伟达⾃身，同时超⼤规模企业和主权资本⽀出前景持续飙升⸺四⼤云巨头2026年资本⽀出预期在第三季度均被上调逾200亿美元。⼤摩补充称，来⾃⼴达、纬创、鸿海等供应链企业的数据反映出AI服务器强劲增⻓，⽽剩余的制约因素（内存、光模块、T玻璃、电⼒供应及前端晶圆）相对于需求仍属可控。 AMZN:亚⻢逊： Hearing1pptbelowonNAand~3pptsbelowonIntʼl 北美市场低于预期1个百分点，国际市场约低3个百分点 Samsunghikesmemorychippricesbyupto60%asshortageworsens,sourcessay微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 三星内存芯⽚提价⾼达60%，消息称短缺形势加剧 Reuters:路透社： SamsungElectronics(005930.KS),opensnewtabthismonthraisedpricesofcertainmemorychips-nowinshortsupplyduetotheglobalracetobuildAIdatacentres-byasmuchas60%comparedtoSeptember,twopeoplewithknowledge ofthehikessaid. 知情⼈⼠透露，三星电⼦(005930.KS)本⽉已将部分因全球AI数据中⼼建设热潮导致供应紧张的存储芯⽚价格较9⽉调涨最⾼达60% ThemovefollowstheworldʼsbiggestmemorychipmakerʼsdecisiontodelayaformalannouncementofpricingforsupplycontractsinOctober,theysaid,addingthatpricingdetailsaretypicallyannouncedeachmonth. 消息⼈⼠称，此举源于全球最⼤存储芯⽚制造商决定推迟⼗⽉供应合同的正式报价公告，并透露此类定价细节通常按⽉发布 ChinaʼsSMIC ExpectsMemoryShortagetoHitCars,Phonesin2026微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 中国中芯国际预计2026年存储芯⽚短缺将冲击汽⻋与⼿机产业 Bloomberg:彭博社： SemiconductorManufacturingInternationalCorp.warnedthatashortageofmemorymayconstraincarandconsumerelectronicsproductionin2026,flaggingpotentialbottlenecksatatimemajorchipmakersareprioritizingbusinesswithAIacceleratorlinchpinNvidiaCorp. 中芯国际预警2026年存储芯⽚短缺或制约汽⻋及消费电⼦产品⽣产，在各⼤芯⽚制造商优先保障AI加速器核⼼⼚商英伟达业务之际，凸显潜在供应链瓶颈 ChinesecompaniesaregettingmorecautiousaboutplacingorderswithSMICforearlynextyearbecausetheyʼreuncertainaboutsecuringenoughofthememorytheyneedforproducts,Co-ChiefExecutiveOfficerZhaoHaijunsaid.Partoftheuncertaintystemsfromprojectionsforasurgeinmemoryprices,reflectingrobustdemandfromAI-relatedapplications.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 中芯国际联席⾸席执⾏官赵海军表示，由于不确定能否获得⾜够内存来保障产品⽣产，中国企业对下年初的订单投放正变得更为谨慎。这种不确定性部分源于内存价格飙升的预期，反映出⼈⼯智能相关应⽤的强劲需求。 ADSK:CitiExpectsSteadyCoreTrendsAmidMixedSurveyData;TPto$370 欧特克（ADSK）：花旗认为核⼼趋势稳健但调查数据喜忧参半；⽬标价上调⾄370美元 Citisaysitsresellersurveyshowedunevendemandsignals,withsofterquotaattainmentandmoremutednear-termgrowth,thoughthefirmattributespartofthenoisetoAutodeskʼsevolvingtransactionmodel.TheanalystwritesthatconversationsatAUandtheOctoberAnalystDayreinforcedconfidenceincompetitivewinswithinACCandexpandingAI-drivenopportunitiesacrossDesignan