TMTB 早间摘要

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破OCT 22, 20252025年10⽉22⽇∙PAID∙付费 Good morning.Futures down small. Stocks in Asia saw mixed price action onWednesday: TPX +0.52%, NKY -0.02%, Hang Seng -0.94%, HSCEI -0.85%, SHCOMP-0.07%, Shenzhen -0.43%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.37%, Korea KOSPI +0.156%, Softbank(OAI proxy) was down 8% at one point but bounced back to finish the day. Gold andBTC down another 2% today. 早上好。期货⼩幅回落。周三亚洲股市涨跌互现：TPX +0.52%，NKY-0.02%，恒⽣指数-0.94%，国企指数-0.85%，上证综指-0.07%，深证-0.43%，台湾加权-0.37%，韩国KOSPI +0.156%，软银（以OAI为代理）⼀度下跌8%，但反弹回升收盘。⻩⾦和⽐特币今天⼜跌了约2%。 NFLX/TXNworse whileGEV/VRT/APH(All AI proxies) better. We’ll hit those first, thenget to the usual stuff… NFLX/TXN表现较差，⽽GEV/VRT/APH（均为AI代理）表现较好。我们先谈这些，然后再说常规内容… 2 NFLX -8%: Mixed Q3 as EPS/margins missed on a one-timeBrazil Tax NFLX下跌8%：第三季度混合表现，每股收益/利润率因⼀次性巴⻄税项影响⽽未达预期 Stock positioning had shifted less short going into the print with the stock up 7-8%over the last few weeks — stock giving it all back this morning on some sell-the newsreaction (similar to what we saw withORCL,HPE, andTSMlast week). Didn’t hear alot of back and forth on the stock last night with most admitting it was a bit of ayawner although any sort ofWBDdeal would be viewed negatively.Some investorswanted FY26 guide but consensus going in was they weren’t likely to give a number,but that remains a bit of an overhang on the stock. Overall, nothing changes bull vs.bear case here and lack of valuation upside on FY26 continues to be main gripe on thestock. 在财报发布前，股票仓位已从更空转向较少做空，过去⼏周股价上涨了7-8%⸺今晨因“利好出尽”出现回吐（类似上周我们在ORCL、HPE和TSM看到的情况）。昨晚对该股并未听到太多争论，⼤多数⼈承认这是有点乏味，尽管任何形式的WBD交易都会被视为利空。⼀些投资者希望得到2026财年的指引，但市场预期他们不太可能给出具体数字，这仍然对股价形成⼀定压制。总体⽽⾔，多空论点没有改变，且对2026财年估值上⾏空间的缺乏仍是对该股的主要不满。 More details:更多细节： Top-line was exactly where investors expected ($11.51B, +17% y/y), with engagementand ad momentum strong (highest US/UK view-share; best ad-sales quarter ever). Acountry-specific Brazil gross tax created a ~$619M one-time hit, driving OM/EPSbelow Street; management said absent that charge, operating income/margin wouldhave exceeded the plan (would have beat street by 200bps) and it’s not expected tobe a material go-forward item. Q4 revenue guide sits modestly above Street, withlower q/q margin seasonally (content amortization) and elevated marketing; FY25 OMnudged down 100 bps to 29% but FCF lifted to ~$9B on timing/content spend. 营收顶线与投资者预期完全⼀致（115.1亿美元，按年增⻓17%），⽤户参与度和⼴告势头强劲（美国/英国观看份额最⾼；⼴告销售季度表现最佳）。⼀项针对巴⻄的特定国家粗税造成了约6.19亿美元的⼀次性冲击，导致营业利润/每股收益低于华尔街预期；管理层表示，若没有该项费⽤，营业收⼊/利润率本应超出计划（将⽐华尔街⾼出约200个基点），并且预计这不会成为未来的重⼤持续项。第四季度营收指引略⾼于华尔街预期，环⽐利润率因季节性因素（内容摊销）和营销⽀出增加⽽⾛低；2025财年营业利润率下调约100个基点⾄29%，但由于时点和内容⽀出调整，⾃由现⾦流提升⾄约90亿美元。 Our take:我们的观点： At 1,150 the r/r looks decently interesting as stock hitting up against the 150d again.Not a ton of upside on ‘26 #s ($35 x 35 is <10% upside, but if you roll fwd to ‘27 and$40+ EPS, can get close to$1,500 or 30% upside). Q4/Q1 tend to be goodseasonality for the stock. However, our issue with the stock continues to be lack of astrong hook/narrative and FY26 guide will continue to be a bit of an overhang on thestock as the paid-sharing and easy ARPU gains fade. We lean long just becausequality of the asset and under$1,150 probably not a bad spot to nibble but not superexciting to us. 在1150处，⻛险/回报看起来相当有吸引⼒，因为股价再次触及150⽇均线。以2026年的数据来看，上涨空间并不⼤（35美元×35股本的估值上涨不到10%，但如果展望到2027年且每股收益达到40美元以上，市值可以接近1500美元或上涨约30%）。该股在第四季度/第⼀季度的季节性通常较好。然⽽，我们对该股的疑虑仍在于缺乏强有⼒的推动因素/叙事，并且2026财年的指引在付费分享和容易实现的ARPU（每⽤户平均收⼊）增⻓消退时，仍将对股价构成⼀定压⼒。我们倾向于做多，仅仅因为该资产的质量较好且在1150美元以下可能不是⼀个糟糕的试探买⼊点，但对我们来说并不特别令⼈兴奋。 TXN -8%:Q3 revs better, but GM and EPS weaker than evenlow expectations as street #s move lower. Q4 guided belowstreet with lower loadings and higher depreciationsuppressing gross margins TXN下跌8%：第三季度营收更好，但⽑利率和每股收益甚⾄低于本已偏低的预期，导致华尔街预期下调。第四季度指引低于市场预期，较低的装载量和更⾼的折旧压低了⽑利率。 Investors still waiting for that ever elusive analog recovery…Group had recovered a bitinto this print despite low expectations, but this is even a bit worse than where buysidewas at for the Q4 guide. 投资者仍在等待那⼀直难以捉摸的模拟业务复苏……尽管市场预期不⾼，该组别在本次财报前已有所回升，但这次业绩甚⾄⽐买⽅对第四季度的预期还要差⼀些。 Q3revenue was$4.742B (+14% y/y, +7% q/q) vs Street$4.645B; EPS$1.48 vs$1.49with a$0.10 EPS reduction from restructuring/R&D actions. GM 57.4% vs street at57.6% 第三季度营收为47.42亿美元（同⽐+14%，环⽐+7%），街⼝预期为46.45亿美元；每股收益1.48美元，街⼝为1.49美元，重组/研发⾏动使每股收益减少了0.10美元。⽑利率57.4%，街⼝预期57.6%。 Q4revenue$4.22–$4.58B (mid$4.40B) vs Street$4.511B; EPS$1.13–$1.39 (mid$1.26) vs$1.41; implied GM ~54–55% vs Street ~57.6% on lower loadings and higher depreciation. 第四季度营收预估为42.2–45.8亿美元（中值44.0亿美元），街⼝为45.11亿美元；每股收益预估1.13–1.39美元（中值1.26美元），街⼝为1.41美元；隐含⽑利率约54–55%，街⼝约57.6%，原因是负荷较低和折旧增加。 Industrial +~25% y/y (LSD q/q); Auto +HSD y/y and ~10% q/q; Enterprise +~35% y/y(~20% q/q); Comms +~45% y/y (~10% q/q) ⼯业部⻔同⽐约+25%（环⽐低单位数）；汽⻋同⽐⾼单位数并环⽐约+10%；企业业务同⽐约+35%（环⽐约+20%）；通信同⽐约+45%（环⽐约+10%） Management called the recovery “moderate” and highlighted tariff rule uncertaintydelaying industrial investment decisions; this was a focal point for investors post-pri