TMTB日终简报

TMTBREAKOUTTMT突围JAN16,2026 2026年1⽉16⽇∙PAID∙已付费 Goodafternoon.QQQs+36bpsasmarketstruggledtofinditsfootingoutsideofAIsemisfollowingTSMʼsgreatprint.IWMagainoutperformedQQQs,thistimebyabout50bpsandhasoutperformedalmosteverydaythisnewyearwiththeratiodown~6%YTD 下午好。随着市场在TSM出⾊业绩后在AI半导体之外难以找到⽴⾜点，QQQ上涨36个基点。IWM再次跑赢QQQ，本次约⾼出50个基点，并且在本年⼏乎每天都表现更好，年初⾄今该⽐率下跌约6%。 BroadAIriskonmostofthedayafterTSM.Internet,payments,andsoftwaresoldoff,extendingthesemivs.softwarerotationasinvestorconversationscontinuetofocuson2keyaspectsoftheAItrade:ClaudeCodeandOpenAI.Factor-wise,TMTmomentum,AI,andChina-exposedtechworked,whilequalityandGARPunderperformed.Onthedownside,highshortinterest,retailfavorites,andcrypto-linkednameswerehithardest,withBitcoin-relatedexposurenotablyweakona SenatebankingbillthatfelthawkishforCOIN/HOOD/CRCL(moredetailbelow). 在TSM公布后⼤部分时间出现⼴泛的AI⻛险。互联⽹、⽀付和软件板块抛售，延续了半导体对软件的轮动，因为投资者讨论继续集中在AI交易的两个关键⽅⾯：ClaudeCode和OpenAI。从因⼦来看，TMT动量、AI和暴露于中国的科技股票表现良好，⽽质量股和GARP表现较差。下⾏⽅⾯，⾼卖空利息、散户热⻔股和与加密货币相关的股票受创最深，受参议院⼀项对COIN/HOOD/CRCL显得偏鹰派的银⾏法案影响，⽐特币相关敞⼝明显疲软（详⻅下⽂）。 Treasuriessawsomeheavysellingwithyieldsrising2-6bpsacrossthecurveaftersomehotdataandhawkishFedremarks(fromSchmidandPaulson).FedexpectationscontinuetoshiftinahawkishdirectionwithmoststillexpectingJuneasfirstcutbutexpectationsbeginningtoshifttoJuly: 在⼀些偏热的数据和来⾃施密德与保尔森的偏鹰派美联储⾔论后，国债遭遇⼤量抛售，收益率在整个曲线上上升了2-6个基点。美联储预期继续向偏鹰⽅向变化，⼤多数⼈仍预期六⽉为⾸次降息，但预期开始向七⽉转移： Letʼsgettoit…我们开始吧… INTERNET互联⽹ AMZN+65bpsasIhearda3pfirmshowedAWStrackingnear23%QTDalthoughitʼsonlyalittlemorethanaweekʼsworthofdata.Bernsteinwasalsooutpositivewitha$300PTsayingAWSandretailmarginsappearpoisedtoaccelerate.RaymondJameswasoutwithamoremixednotingsayingAgneticcommerceispoisedtobreakoutin2026andifAMZNweretogofrom“50%/40%purchasefunnelshare/eCommarketshareto45%/39%eCommarketsharewethink‘coreretailʼgrowth(1P,3P,Ads)couldbe1%belowStreetestimatesthatcurrentlyproject8%2026growthandpotentiallymixawayfrom3P/adstowards1P/fulfillmentwithhigherTAC.”SemianalysishadanoteonAgenticcommerceacoupledaysagolookingatitalittledifferently,sayingAichatbotsarenowalready10%ofallsearchtraffic,whichhascausedabouta~2.5BsharelossinCY25forAMZN(whichisverysmallvs.AMZNʼs$750BinGMV).Allinall,agentic commercenotgreatforthenarrative,butstillverysmallnumbers.Weʼllseehowitevolves….Aftertheclosealsosawthateffectiveasoftoday,AMZNisraisingfulfillmentfees(basedonsimplisticassumptions,seemslikecouldaround0.5-1%toopinc.): AMZN上涨65个基点，据我所知有⼀家3⼈公司显示AWS本季度⾄今的追踪接近23%，尽管这只是略多于⼀周的数据。伯恩斯坦也发表了看好报告，给出300美元的⽬标价，称AWS和零售利润率似乎有望加速。RaymondJames的观点更为混合，指出“智能代理商务”有望在2026年突破，如果AMZN的“购买漏⽃份额/电商市场份额”从50%/40%变为45%/39%，我们认为“核⼼零售”（⾃营、第三⽅、⼴告）的增⻓可能⽐华尔街⽬前预计的2026年8%增⻓低1%，并且可能从第三⽅/⼴告的组合向⾃营/履约转移，同时提⾼交易获取成本（TAC）。 Semianalysis在⼏天前对智能代理商务也有⼀篇不同看法的报告，称AI聊天机器⼈现在已占全部搜索流量的10%，这在2025年⽇历年导致AMZN约25亿美元的份额损失（相对于AMZN7500亿美元的GMV⾮常⼩）。总的来说，智能代理商务对叙事不是很有利，但仍然是⾮常⼩的数字。我们将拭⽬以待其如何发展……收盘后还看到，⾃今⽇起AMZN正在提⾼履约费⽤（基于简化假设，似乎可能对营业收⼊影响约0.5–1%）。 RDDT-9%asRBChadweakcheckssayingfeedbackwasweaker,citinglowpricing,unevenconversionandlimitedneartermimpactfromMaxCampaigns.TechCrunchalsoreportedthatDigglaunchinganewRedditwhichisnowinpublicbetaaddedfueltothefire,asitsnewsofanewcompetitormany(includingme)didnʼtknowexisteduntiltoday: RDDT下跌9%，因为加拿⼤皇家银⾏的审查报告称反馈较弱，指出定价偏低、转化不均以及“Max”活动在短期内影响有限。TechCrunch也报道说，Digg正在推出⼀个新的Reddit并已进⼊公开测试，这进⼀步加剧了抛售，因为关于这⼀新竞争对⼿的消息，许多⼈（包括我在内）直到今天才知道。 TherebootoftheearlyinternetonlinecommunityDigg,aone-timerivaltoReddit,ismovingforward.Thecompany,whichistodaybackundertheownershipofitsoriginalfounder,KevinRose,alongwithRedditco-founderAlexisOhanian,islaunchingitsopenbetatothepubliconWednesday. 曾是Reddit竞争对⼿的早期互联⽹社区Digg的重启正在推进。该公司如今重新回到其原创创始⼈KevinRose以及Reddit联合创始⼈AlexisOhanian的所有权之下，并将于周三向公众推出公开测试版。 SimilartoReddit,thenewDiggoffersawebsiteandmobileappwhereyoucanbrowsefeedsfeaturingpostsfromacrossaselectionofitscommunitiesandjoinothercommunitiesthatalignwithyourinterests.There,youcanpost,comment,andupvote(or“digg”)thesiteʼscontent.Beforetodayʼspublicbetalaunch,thesiteoffered21moregeneralizedcommunitieslikegaming,technology,andentertainment,andwasopento67,000usersonaninvite-onlybasis. 与Reddit类似，新的Digg提供了⽹站和移动应⽤，你可以在其中浏览来⾃其若⼲社区精选的帖⼦订阅流，并加⼊与你兴趣相符的其他社区。在那⾥，你可以发布、评论并为⽹站内容点赞（或“digg”）。在今天公开测试版发布之前，该⽹站提供了21个更为通⽤的社区，如游戏、科技和娱乐，并以仅限邀请的⽅式向67,000名⽤户开放。 RBLX+2%asEscapefromTsunamicontinuestorampinthecharts(w/wabout+300%) RBLX上涨2%，随着《EscapefromTsunami》在排⾏榜上持续攀升（周⽐约+300%） EBAY+2%asboth3pfirmswereoutpositiveonthenamecallingoutGMVthatwilllikelycomeinLSDabovestreet.EBAYisbenefittingfrom“investmentcommerce”wherebuyersbuyingandresellingitemsliketradingcards,toys,luxurybags,andbullion(silver/gold)asassetsthatholdorgrowinvalue,ratherthanjust“used”goods.This“Recommerce”segmentnowdrivesover40%oftheirGMVandisgrowingfasterthantherestoftheirbiz. EBAY+2%：两家第三⽅机构对该股给出积极评价，指出GMV可能以个位数低位增⻓，超出市场预期。EBAY受益于“投资型电商”，买家将交易卡、玩具、奢侈包和⾦银等作为保值或增值的资产来买卖，⽽不仅仅是“⼆⼿”商品。“再商务” （Recommerce）板块⽬前推动其GMV的超过40%，且增⻓速度快于其他业务。 ETSY+3%as3pdatacontinuestoimprove ETSY+3%：第三⽅数据持续改善 SPOT-4%astheyraisedpricesby$1insteadofthe$2somebullshadbeenhopingfor.Weʼvewritt